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Released October 09, 2025 | SUGAR LAND
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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Despite funding and proposed legislation meant to encourage the use of fossil fuels, particularly natural gas, for power generation in Texas, data from LSEG (London, England) suggest that clean energy sources could provide more power in the state this year than natural gas or coal. While for the first nine months of this year, coal and natural gas have provided more power, seasonal maintenance on fossil-fueled plants coupled with strong wind generation could result in clean power sources, including solar, wind and nuclear, providing more overall power for Texans than fossil fuels in 2025.
A recent Reuters column cites LSEG data showing that on the state's Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid, which serves 90% of the state, fossil-fueled generation was down 1% for the first nine months of this year, compared to the corresponding period of 2024. At the same time, power generation from clean-energy sources--primarily solar, wind and nuclear--rose 14% in the same period, boosting ERCOT's overall generation 5% from last year.
Most of the gains this year have come from solar power, which registered a 45% increase on the ERCOT grid from last year. Although solar farms represented most of the state's power growth, a majority of its power continues to be generated by natural gas. Natural gas use, however, declined 4% over the first nine months of the year, due in large part to a price increase. Coal use increased 11% from last year, generating about 2 million megawatt-hours (MWh) during that time, below that of wind or solar.
In summary, LSEG data recorded the following generation from various fuel sources in the first nine months of 2025:
Maguire noted a few key trends that typically occur on the Texas grid as the state transitions from summer temperatures into fall and winter:
Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Power Project Database supports the occurrence of increased maintenance at fossil plants during the winter months. Industrial Info is tracking 23 scheduled maintenance projects at Texas coal- and gas-fired plants from October through December, versus only one planned event from July through September and 14 total maintenance events for the entire six months from April through September.
More than half of the 23 events scheduled in fall-winter 2025 at fossil plants are for units generating more than 500 MW, often in the 700- to 800-MW range, with the largest single chunk of offline fossil-fueled power occurring now at the 933-MW Block 1 of Calpine Corporation's (Houston, Texas) natural gas-fired Baytown Energy Center in Chambers County. This outage is expected to last 16 days total. Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Project Database can learn more by viewing the project report.
During the time these fossil fuel plants are offline, historical trends in the state's wind generation suggest substantial increases in store from this form of power. LSEG data show that from 2022 to 2024, wind generation on ERCOT increased by an average of 17% during the final three months of the year, lifting wind's 17% contribution to the overall power mix in the third quarter to 26% of the mix in the fourth quarter.
It's this boost in wind, coupled with a decline in fossil-fueled generation, that could lead to clean energy surpassing natural gas and coal generation in Texas this year. Current LSEG models show the state's wind power generation rising 20% to 25% from the first week of October. So, if the stars in Texas' power sky align in a certain manner, fossil fuels will generate a minority of power in the state this year.
While Texas leads the U.S. for wind power generation, like the rest of the country (and the rest of the world, for that matter), solar power growth is accelerating dramatically while wind power growth has moderated over recent years. Industrial Info recorded about 815 MW of wind power added to the state in the year up to October 1, 2025. Subscribers to Industrial Info's GMI Project Database can learn more by viewing the related project reports. That compares to more than 2 gigawatts (GW) installed in the state from October 2023 through September 2024.
In comparison, over the past year, solar construction has become much more prevalent, with Industrial Info recording more than 6.5 GW of Texas solar power being completed in the year to September 30, 2025. Subscribers can learn more by viewing the related project reports. No new coal power was brought online during this time, and natural gas additions were few and far between, coming mostly in the form of a peaking plant and fuel conversions from coal, which usually contribute little to overall fossil-fueled generation gains in the state. Competition for limited supplies of gas-fired turbines could also hinder near-term buildout of natural gas-fired power plants.
For their part, Texas legislators are doing what they can to encourage the growth of gas-fired power and have even proposed setting up severe hindrances for renewable generation, although these haven't yet to come pass. On the proactive side, Texas voters in 2023 supported the creation of the Texas Energy Fund, which designates more than $7 billion to provide low-interest loans for natural gas-fired projects. Despite the fund being available in 2024, the first loan wasn't issued until this summer, and only three loans have been promised to date, supporting a combined 1.3 GW of gas-fired generation. Subscribers can click here to learn more about the three projects that have been promised TEF funds to date.
Earlier this year, there was an outcry from renewable energy advocates as well as some fiscal conservatives when the Texas Senate had three bills on its docket seemingly designed to thwart renewable energy construction in the state. In short, the legislation would have substantially increased new site and permitting requirements (exempting fossil fuel plants), require renewable generation to purchase gas-fired generation as backup, and directing that 50% of all new power capacity added to the state's grid come from "dispatchable" sources other than battery storage (i.e., natural gas).
The trio of bills brought out a strange alliance of groups in opposition. Environmental advocates were opposed to the pending legislation, but so were the Chemical Council, the Energy Buyers Alliance and the Texas Oil and Gas Association, which noted that some oil companies have power-purchase agreements in place for low-cost wind and solar energy, reducing the price of a barrel of oil. The legislation never made it to the floor or advanced to the Texas House of Representatives, with the three bills seeing a quiet demise when the legislature recessed in June.
As it stands, then, Texas continues to plow forward with renewable development, particularly solar, and while programs like the Texas Energy Fund are meant to fuel the power grid with the state's abundant natural gas, for better or worse, the state remains one of the leading renewable energy producers in the U.S., and the idea that clean forms of energy such as wind, solar and nuclear could overtake the abundant fossil-fueled base generation load is becoming less farfetched of an idea.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).
A recent Reuters column cites LSEG data showing that on the state's Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid, which serves 90% of the state, fossil-fueled generation was down 1% for the first nine months of this year, compared to the corresponding period of 2024. At the same time, power generation from clean-energy sources--primarily solar, wind and nuclear--rose 14% in the same period, boosting ERCOT's overall generation 5% from last year.
Most of the gains this year have come from solar power, which registered a 45% increase on the ERCOT grid from last year. Although solar farms represented most of the state's power growth, a majority of its power continues to be generated by natural gas. Natural gas use, however, declined 4% over the first nine months of the year, due in large part to a price increase. Coal use increased 11% from last year, generating about 2 million megawatt-hours (MWh) during that time, below that of wind or solar.
In summary, LSEG data recorded the following generation from various fuel sources in the first nine months of 2025:
- Natural gas -- 6.47 million MWh
- Wind -- 3.57 million MWh
- Solar -- 2.18 million MWh
- Coal -- 2 million MWh
- Nuclear -- 1.3 million MWh
- Hydro -- around 21,000 MWh
Maguire noted a few key trends that typically occur on the Texas grid as the state transitions from summer temperatures into fall and winter:
- The state's overall power demand declines as people use less air conditioning.
- Fossil-fueled plants, after their heavy summer loads, are brought offline for seasonal maintenance, made easier by the lower overall power demand in the cooler months.
- Solar power generation declines as daylight hours grow shorter.
- Wind generation increases sharply as wind speeds increase in the colder months. Typically, the lowest output from wind generation is seen in the July-September quarter, when warmer temperatures reduce windspeeds.
Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Power Project Database supports the occurrence of increased maintenance at fossil plants during the winter months. Industrial Info is tracking 23 scheduled maintenance projects at Texas coal- and gas-fired plants from October through December, versus only one planned event from July through September and 14 total maintenance events for the entire six months from April through September.
More than half of the 23 events scheduled in fall-winter 2025 at fossil plants are for units generating more than 500 MW, often in the 700- to 800-MW range, with the largest single chunk of offline fossil-fueled power occurring now at the 933-MW Block 1 of Calpine Corporation's (Houston, Texas) natural gas-fired Baytown Energy Center in Chambers County. This outage is expected to last 16 days total. Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Project Database can learn more by viewing the project report.
During the time these fossil fuel plants are offline, historical trends in the state's wind generation suggest substantial increases in store from this form of power. LSEG data show that from 2022 to 2024, wind generation on ERCOT increased by an average of 17% during the final three months of the year, lifting wind's 17% contribution to the overall power mix in the third quarter to 26% of the mix in the fourth quarter.
It's this boost in wind, coupled with a decline in fossil-fueled generation, that could lead to clean energy surpassing natural gas and coal generation in Texas this year. Current LSEG models show the state's wind power generation rising 20% to 25% from the first week of October. So, if the stars in Texas' power sky align in a certain manner, fossil fuels will generate a minority of power in the state this year.
While Texas leads the U.S. for wind power generation, like the rest of the country (and the rest of the world, for that matter), solar power growth is accelerating dramatically while wind power growth has moderated over recent years. Industrial Info recorded about 815 MW of wind power added to the state in the year up to October 1, 2025. Subscribers to Industrial Info's GMI Project Database can learn more by viewing the related project reports. That compares to more than 2 gigawatts (GW) installed in the state from October 2023 through September 2024.
In comparison, over the past year, solar construction has become much more prevalent, with Industrial Info recording more than 6.5 GW of Texas solar power being completed in the year to September 30, 2025. Subscribers can learn more by viewing the related project reports. No new coal power was brought online during this time, and natural gas additions were few and far between, coming mostly in the form of a peaking plant and fuel conversions from coal, which usually contribute little to overall fossil-fueled generation gains in the state. Competition for limited supplies of gas-fired turbines could also hinder near-term buildout of natural gas-fired power plants.
For their part, Texas legislators are doing what they can to encourage the growth of gas-fired power and have even proposed setting up severe hindrances for renewable generation, although these haven't yet to come pass. On the proactive side, Texas voters in 2023 supported the creation of the Texas Energy Fund, which designates more than $7 billion to provide low-interest loans for natural gas-fired projects. Despite the fund being available in 2024, the first loan wasn't issued until this summer, and only three loans have been promised to date, supporting a combined 1.3 GW of gas-fired generation. Subscribers can click here to learn more about the three projects that have been promised TEF funds to date.
Earlier this year, there was an outcry from renewable energy advocates as well as some fiscal conservatives when the Texas Senate had three bills on its docket seemingly designed to thwart renewable energy construction in the state. In short, the legislation would have substantially increased new site and permitting requirements (exempting fossil fuel plants), require renewable generation to purchase gas-fired generation as backup, and directing that 50% of all new power capacity added to the state's grid come from "dispatchable" sources other than battery storage (i.e., natural gas).
The trio of bills brought out a strange alliance of groups in opposition. Environmental advocates were opposed to the pending legislation, but so were the Chemical Council, the Energy Buyers Alliance and the Texas Oil and Gas Association, which noted that some oil companies have power-purchase agreements in place for low-cost wind and solar energy, reducing the price of a barrel of oil. The legislation never made it to the floor or advanced to the Texas House of Representatives, with the three bills seeing a quiet demise when the legislature recessed in June.
As it stands, then, Texas continues to plow forward with renewable development, particularly solar, and while programs like the Texas Energy Fund are meant to fuel the power grid with the state's abundant natural gas, for better or worse, the state remains one of the leading renewable energy producers in the U.S., and the idea that clean forms of energy such as wind, solar and nuclear could overtake the abundant fossil-fueled base generation load is becoming less farfetched of an idea.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).
