Reports related to this article:
Project(s): View 4 related projects in PECWeb
Plant(s): View 4 related plants in PECWeb
Released August 22, 2025 | SUGAR LAND
en
Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--The use of so-called green hydrogen is touted as a means of cutting greenhouse gas emissions to help limit global warming, but is facing tougher times due to basic economics and sharply diminished government incentives.
Green hydrogen is produced by the electrolysis of water, using renewable electricity. It gained in popularity because its production causes lower greenhouse gas emissions than production of hydrogen from fossil fuels without carbon capture (grey hydrogen). Also, there's blue hydrogen, which also is derived from fossil fuels, but includes a carbon-capture component.
Hydrogen can have applications in power, heavy industries (such as steelmaking and cement production) and transportation, as well as chemicals such as ammonia.
According to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) latest annual Global Hydrogen Review, hydrogen production reached 97 million tons in 2023, but less than 1% was low-emissions (green hydrogen). Based on announced projects, low-emissions hydrogen could reach 49 million tons per year by 2030.
But producing low-emission hydrogen is generally one-and-a-half to six times more costly than unabated fossil-based production, according to the IEA report. "This cost premium is much lower further down the value chain; for consumers, it typically represents only a few percentage points on final products (for example, it is around 1% for electric vehicles with steel produced using renewable hydrogen), but acceptance of higher prices varies by product."
Worldwide, Industrial Info is tracking more than 2,400 active capital "Power-to-X" projects that are tied to the production and/or use of green hydrogen, worth more than $690 billion. With 249 projects worth more than $98 billion, India is the global heavyweight. The U.S. ranks No. 6 in terms of the total investment value of its projects. Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence Chemical Processing Project Database can click here for a list of detailed project reports.
Click on the image at right for a graph showing Power-to-X projects by world region.
However, Industrial Info assesses about 41% of those projects as having a low probability of moving forward as planned.
At the same time, Industrial Info's project database lists 475 Power-to-X projects, worth more than $114 billion, that have been cancelled or placed on hold. Subscribers can click here for a list of those projects. This includes 225 projects, worth more $70.5 billion, that have been cancelled or placed on hold just this year so far.
In the U.S., the prospects for Power-to-X projects are dimmer. Industrial Info is tracking 74 active Power-to-X projects in the U.S., worth nearly $35 billion, out of which about 72% are assessed as having a low probability of moving forward as planned.
Also, 40 Power-to-X projects, worth more than $42 billion, already have been cancelled or put on hold in the U.S. Twenty three of those projects, worth $36.2 billion, have been cancelled just this year.
So what happened?
The high cost of producing green hydrogen, lack of development of economies of scale to lower those costs, steep competition with other industries such as AI and data centers for the electricity used to make green hydrogen, and in the U.S., a dramatic change in government policy regarding clean energy, have resulted in more projects being cancelled or put on hold.
In his North America industrial outlook presentations for the Chemical Processing Industry, Trey Hamblet, senior vice president of research operations for Industrial Info, has noted that while there were a lot of green and blue hydrogen projects on the books, very few of them seemed to be progressing.
"Many projects have been planned for years, maybe five-plus years in some cases," he said, adding that many of the delays were the result of government policy indecision regarding which, if any, government incentives might be retired or discontinued.
In July, global metals and green energy company Fortescue (Perth, Western Australia) announced it had abandoned a planned $550 million green hydrogen project in Buckeye, Arizona. The company took aim at policy uncertainty under the current U.S. administration.
Fortescue's head of green energy investment, Gus Pichot, said during an investor call that the "lack of certainty and a step back in green ambition has stopped the emerging green energy markets making it hard for previously feasible projects to proceed."
For more information, see July 31, 2025, article - Mining Major Fortescue Drops Green Hydrogen Projects. Subscribers can click here for the Buckeye project report.
Under the Trump administration's One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), the deadline to start construction on hydrogen projects in order to receive a crucial tax credit (45V) was greatly accelerated to December 31, 2027, from January 1, 2033, creating a much greater hurdle for project developers. But even before the second Trump administration, a slow rollout of clean hydrogen tax credit guidance by the Internal Revenue Service under the Biden administration was blamed for throwing cold water on project development.
The shortened eligibility period "has already accelerated plans for several projects, and caused several to give up and cancel as it is too short for them," IIR's Hamblet said.
The tax credit affects not just green hydrogen projects, but also blue hydrogen (derived from fossil fuels with a carbon-capture component) projects.
During Exxon Mobil Corporation's (Spring, Texas) second-quarter earnings conference call on August 1, Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods noted "mixed progress" on the company's planned 1 billion-cubic-foot-per-day blue hydrogen and carbon-capture project in Baytown, Texas. He said he was disappointed that the eligibility deadline for the clean hydrogen tax credit was shortened, but added, "While our project can meet this timeline, we're concerned about the development of a broader market, which is critical to transition from government incentives. If we can't see an eventual path to a market-driven business, we won't move forward with the project."
Industrial Info currently assesses the ExxonMobil project as having a low probability of moving forward as planned. Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Chemical Processing Project and Plant databases can click here for the project report and click here for the plant profile.
For the clean hydrogen industry to flourish, substantial infrastructure investments are needed for things like pipelines, storage, carbon capture and electrolyzers.
IIR's Hamblet said these factors vary depending on where the project is proposed.
"Access to electrolyzers is a multi-year wait in most cases, where to store CO2 [carbon dioxide] has been a constraint, and transport costs for the hydrogen is significant," he said, adding a limited end-use market is another hurdle.
"But mostly, with the simple cost of the technology, you end up with a more expensive molecule," he continued. "It's hard to compete that way without the incentives."
Some green hydrogen projects are facing potential problems elsewhere. Air Products (Lehigh Valley, Pennsylvania) recently threatened to cancel its £2 billion (US$2.7 billion) green hydrogen import and production project at the Port of Immingham in the Humber region of the U.K., citing a "lack of commitment" on the part of the government. For more on that, see July 2, 2025, article - Air Products Threatens to Stop Major U.K. Green Hydrogen Project.
Still, other green hydrogen projects in Europe are progressing. For related information, see August 12, 2025, article - Port of Rotterdam Green Hydrogen Plant Moves Forward.
In Australia, Stanwell Corporation Limited (Brisbane, Australia) pulled its support from the 36,700 ton-per-year Gladstone green hydrogen project in Queensland amid rising costs and market uncertainty. That project was aimed at exporting hydrogen to Japan and South Korea. Subscribers can click here for the project report.
Clean hydrogen has been touted as a means of decarbonizing the steel industry, but steel producer Cleveland-Cliffs Incorporated (Cleveland, Ohio) announced earlier this year it was pulling the plug on a green hydrogen direct-reduced-iron plant project in Middletown, Ohio, due to concerns over insufficient hydrogen supply. Subscribers to Industrial Info's GMI Metals & Minerals Project Database can click here for the project report and click here for the plant profile.
And in Europe, ArcelorMittal (Luxembourg, Luxembourg) said in June it was backing off two major green steel projects in Germany worth more than US$1.2 billion in investment. Despite the promise of 1.3 billion euro (US$1.5 billion) in funding from the German government, the company said it would not be moving forward, "due to the market situation and the lack of economic viability of CO2-reduced steel production."
For more information, see June 30, 2025, article - ArcelorMittal Stops German Green Steel Projects.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
Green hydrogen is produced by the electrolysis of water, using renewable electricity. It gained in popularity because its production causes lower greenhouse gas emissions than production of hydrogen from fossil fuels without carbon capture (grey hydrogen). Also, there's blue hydrogen, which also is derived from fossil fuels, but includes a carbon-capture component.
Hydrogen can have applications in power, heavy industries (such as steelmaking and cement production) and transportation, as well as chemicals such as ammonia.
According to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) latest annual Global Hydrogen Review, hydrogen production reached 97 million tons in 2023, but less than 1% was low-emissions (green hydrogen). Based on announced projects, low-emissions hydrogen could reach 49 million tons per year by 2030.
But producing low-emission hydrogen is generally one-and-a-half to six times more costly than unabated fossil-based production, according to the IEA report. "This cost premium is much lower further down the value chain; for consumers, it typically represents only a few percentage points on final products (for example, it is around 1% for electric vehicles with steel produced using renewable hydrogen), but acceptance of higher prices varies by product."
Worldwide, Industrial Info is tracking more than 2,400 active capital "Power-to-X" projects that are tied to the production and/or use of green hydrogen, worth more than $690 billion. With 249 projects worth more than $98 billion, India is the global heavyweight. The U.S. ranks No. 6 in terms of the total investment value of its projects. Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence Chemical Processing Project Database can click here for a list of detailed project reports.
However, Industrial Info assesses about 41% of those projects as having a low probability of moving forward as planned.
At the same time, Industrial Info's project database lists 475 Power-to-X projects, worth more than $114 billion, that have been cancelled or placed on hold. Subscribers can click here for a list of those projects. This includes 225 projects, worth more $70.5 billion, that have been cancelled or placed on hold just this year so far.
In the U.S., the prospects for Power-to-X projects are dimmer. Industrial Info is tracking 74 active Power-to-X projects in the U.S., worth nearly $35 billion, out of which about 72% are assessed as having a low probability of moving forward as planned.
Also, 40 Power-to-X projects, worth more than $42 billion, already have been cancelled or put on hold in the U.S. Twenty three of those projects, worth $36.2 billion, have been cancelled just this year.
So what happened?
The high cost of producing green hydrogen, lack of development of economies of scale to lower those costs, steep competition with other industries such as AI and data centers for the electricity used to make green hydrogen, and in the U.S., a dramatic change in government policy regarding clean energy, have resulted in more projects being cancelled or put on hold.
In his North America industrial outlook presentations for the Chemical Processing Industry, Trey Hamblet, senior vice president of research operations for Industrial Info, has noted that while there were a lot of green and blue hydrogen projects on the books, very few of them seemed to be progressing.
"Many projects have been planned for years, maybe five-plus years in some cases," he said, adding that many of the delays were the result of government policy indecision regarding which, if any, government incentives might be retired or discontinued.
In July, global metals and green energy company Fortescue (Perth, Western Australia) announced it had abandoned a planned $550 million green hydrogen project in Buckeye, Arizona. The company took aim at policy uncertainty under the current U.S. administration.
Fortescue's head of green energy investment, Gus Pichot, said during an investor call that the "lack of certainty and a step back in green ambition has stopped the emerging green energy markets making it hard for previously feasible projects to proceed."
For more information, see July 31, 2025, article - Mining Major Fortescue Drops Green Hydrogen Projects. Subscribers can click here for the Buckeye project report.
Under the Trump administration's One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), the deadline to start construction on hydrogen projects in order to receive a crucial tax credit (45V) was greatly accelerated to December 31, 2027, from January 1, 2033, creating a much greater hurdle for project developers. But even before the second Trump administration, a slow rollout of clean hydrogen tax credit guidance by the Internal Revenue Service under the Biden administration was blamed for throwing cold water on project development.
The shortened eligibility period "has already accelerated plans for several projects, and caused several to give up and cancel as it is too short for them," IIR's Hamblet said.
The tax credit affects not just green hydrogen projects, but also blue hydrogen (derived from fossil fuels with a carbon-capture component) projects.
During Exxon Mobil Corporation's (Spring, Texas) second-quarter earnings conference call on August 1, Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods noted "mixed progress" on the company's planned 1 billion-cubic-foot-per-day blue hydrogen and carbon-capture project in Baytown, Texas. He said he was disappointed that the eligibility deadline for the clean hydrogen tax credit was shortened, but added, "While our project can meet this timeline, we're concerned about the development of a broader market, which is critical to transition from government incentives. If we can't see an eventual path to a market-driven business, we won't move forward with the project."
Industrial Info currently assesses the ExxonMobil project as having a low probability of moving forward as planned. Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Chemical Processing Project and Plant databases can click here for the project report and click here for the plant profile.
For the clean hydrogen industry to flourish, substantial infrastructure investments are needed for things like pipelines, storage, carbon capture and electrolyzers.
IIR's Hamblet said these factors vary depending on where the project is proposed.
"Access to electrolyzers is a multi-year wait in most cases, where to store CO2 [carbon dioxide] has been a constraint, and transport costs for the hydrogen is significant," he said, adding a limited end-use market is another hurdle.
"But mostly, with the simple cost of the technology, you end up with a more expensive molecule," he continued. "It's hard to compete that way without the incentives."
Some green hydrogen projects are facing potential problems elsewhere. Air Products (Lehigh Valley, Pennsylvania) recently threatened to cancel its £2 billion (US$2.7 billion) green hydrogen import and production project at the Port of Immingham in the Humber region of the U.K., citing a "lack of commitment" on the part of the government. For more on that, see July 2, 2025, article - Air Products Threatens to Stop Major U.K. Green Hydrogen Project.
Still, other green hydrogen projects in Europe are progressing. For related information, see August 12, 2025, article - Port of Rotterdam Green Hydrogen Plant Moves Forward.
In Australia, Stanwell Corporation Limited (Brisbane, Australia) pulled its support from the 36,700 ton-per-year Gladstone green hydrogen project in Queensland amid rising costs and market uncertainty. That project was aimed at exporting hydrogen to Japan and South Korea. Subscribers can click here for the project report.
Clean hydrogen has been touted as a means of decarbonizing the steel industry, but steel producer Cleveland-Cliffs Incorporated (Cleveland, Ohio) announced earlier this year it was pulling the plug on a green hydrogen direct-reduced-iron plant project in Middletown, Ohio, due to concerns over insufficient hydrogen supply. Subscribers to Industrial Info's GMI Metals & Minerals Project Database can click here for the project report and click here for the plant profile.
And in Europe, ArcelorMittal (Luxembourg, Luxembourg) said in June it was backing off two major green steel projects in Germany worth more than US$1.2 billion in investment. Despite the promise of 1.3 billion euro (US$1.5 billion) in funding from the German government, the company said it would not be moving forward, "due to the market situation and the lack of economic viability of CO2-reduced steel production."
For more information, see June 30, 2025, article - ArcelorMittal Stops German Green Steel Projects.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
