Released November 11, 2025 | SUGAR LAND
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Written by Daniel Graeber for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)
Matt Giocano, the acting director of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), on Friday announced plans for the first offshore lease sales as mandated by Trump's so-called One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
"BOEM is now moving forward with a predictable, congressionally mandated leasing schedule that will support offshore oil and gas development for decades to come," Giocano said in a statement.
Total U.S. shale oil production is on pace to decline from 11.2 million barrels per day (BBL/d) to 11.1 million BBL/d by 2026. The only place for any meaningful annual growth is offshore, with Gulf volumes expected to increase nearly 4% to 1.96 million BBL/d. Offshore accounts for only marginal amounts of natural gas.
By the Numbers
Former President Joe Biden in January withdrew "significant portions" of the Outer Continental Shelf from future oil and gas leases. The Biden administration argued that 2024 oil production was at an all-time high at 13.2 million BBL/d, and the industry had yet to tap into 80% of the 12 million acres already under lease.
Trump rescinded that order on his return to the White House. Offshore production is less expensive than production from inland basins, and typically lower in carbon intensity.
Among the largest startups this year in the region is the Shenandoah prospect, led by Beacon Offshore Energy LLC (Houston, Texas), which is expected to add 120,000 BBL/d of production to Gulf volumes.
Subscribers to IIR Energy can learn more from a detailed project report and plant profile.
Alaskan operations are not for the faint of heart. A string of problems with Shell plc's (London, England) offshore drilling infrastructure in Alaska during the 2010s sparked backlash from an environmental advocacy community that was still on edge from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Shell forked over $39 billion in a 2007 lease, but the company wound up leaving the state altogether less than a decade later.
Hilcorp Energy (Anchorage, Alaska) was the lone bidder for a Cook Inlet lease in 2023. Its high bid of a meager $64,000 for a 2,304-acre parcel was just a tiny slice of the 1 million acres put up for auction by the federal government. Trump again is putting 1 million on the auction block.
Alaskan crude oil production could average 450,000 BBL/d next year, close to a 7% increase from what's forecast for this year. That represents only 3% of total U.S. crude oil production, however.
Both lease sales are expected in March.
Key Takeaways
About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).
Summary
The federal government announced it was taking the steps necessary for offshore drilling rights. Shale production is on pace for an annual decline by 2026.First Auctions Set under One Big Beautiful Bill
The U.S. federal government announced it was readying for offshore lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico and in the Cook Inlet off Alaska, the first such offerings from President Donald Trump's signature spending bill.Matt Giocano, the acting director of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), on Friday announced plans for the first offshore lease sales as mandated by Trump's so-called One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
"BOEM is now moving forward with a predictable, congressionally mandated leasing schedule that will support offshore oil and gas development for decades to come," Giocano said in a statement.
U.S. Offshore Only Source of Domestic Oil Production Growth
The U.S. is the world leader in natural gas and crude oil production. The government believes there are some 29.6 billion barrels of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and 54.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas remaining in U.S. territorial waters in the Gulf of Mexico.Total U.S. shale oil production is on pace to decline from 11.2 million barrels per day (BBL/d) to 11.1 million BBL/d by 2026. The only place for any meaningful annual growth is offshore, with Gulf volumes expected to increase nearly 4% to 1.96 million BBL/d. Offshore accounts for only marginal amounts of natural gas.
By the Numbers
- 29.6 billion barrels of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil.
- 54.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas remaining in U.S. territorial waters in the Gulf of Mexico.
- 450/000 BBL/d expected from Alaska next year.
Former President Joe Biden in January withdrew "significant portions" of the Outer Continental Shelf from future oil and gas leases. The Biden administration argued that 2024 oil production was at an all-time high at 13.2 million BBL/d, and the industry had yet to tap into 80% of the 12 million acres already under lease.
Trump rescinded that order on his return to the White House. Offshore production is less expensive than production from inland basins, and typically lower in carbon intensity.
Among the largest startups this year in the region is the Shenandoah prospect, led by Beacon Offshore Energy LLC (Houston, Texas), which is expected to add 120,000 BBL/d of production to Gulf volumes.
Subscribers to IIR Energy can learn more from a detailed project report and plant profile.
Alaska Remains Tough to Reach
To meet presidential orders, the Interior Department under Trump has also considered reopening parts of the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska up to drillers, leasing out parts of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.Alaskan operations are not for the faint of heart. A string of problems with Shell plc's (London, England) offshore drilling infrastructure in Alaska during the 2010s sparked backlash from an environmental advocacy community that was still on edge from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Shell forked over $39 billion in a 2007 lease, but the company wound up leaving the state altogether less than a decade later.
Hilcorp Energy (Anchorage, Alaska) was the lone bidder for a Cook Inlet lease in 2023. Its high bid of a meager $64,000 for a 2,304-acre parcel was just a tiny slice of the 1 million acres put up for auction by the federal government. Trump again is putting 1 million on the auction block.
Alaskan crude oil production could average 450,000 BBL/d next year, close to a 7% increase from what's forecast for this year. That represents only 3% of total U.S. crude oil production, however.
Both lease sales are expected in March.
Key Takeaways
- Trump announces auctions slated to take place in March
- Offshore is the only place for meaningful production growth
- Tapping Alaska has been an industry challenge for decades
About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).
