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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--This year is unfolding as one of record-breaking energy demand for Electric Reliability Council of Texas Incorporated (ERCOT) (Austin, Texas), which manages approximately 85% of Texas' electric load, covering about 75% of the state's total area. ERCOT's own forecast, issued June 30, predicted a peak summer demand this year of 63,898 megawatts (MW), based on "the assumption that 'normal' (or typical) weather is milder during forecasted summer peak days than was experienced in 2010." However, this assumption was shattered last week, when sweltering temperatures pushed power demand in Texas to record levels three straight days in a row.
Before last week (Aug. 7-13), the previous demand record was 65,776 MW, set on August 23, 2010--not coincidentally the day that most of the state's youngsters ended their summer holidays and returned to school. However, this record was shattered by more than 1,000 MW of extra demand on Monday, August 1, when demand peaked at 66,867 MW. Tuesday set a new record, and a new demand record was set again on Wednesday, August 3, with 68,294 MW of peak power demand between 4 p.m. and 5 p.m. Demand was kept in check on Thursday, as 1,500 MW of interruptible load was shed during peak hours, helping avoid the rolling blackouts that ERCOT had warned were possible. While demand eased over the weekend, Saturday brought a new weekend power demand record of 63,280 MW.
ERCOT was importing more than 1,000 MW of power from other grids on Thursday. Making matters worse were the unplanned outages of between 4,700 and 5,000 MW of generating capacity on Wednesday and Thursday. Significant unplanned outages in Texas last week included NRG Energy Incorporated's (NYSE:NRG) 838-MW Unit 1 at the Limestone coal-fired power station in Jewett and Lower Colorado River Authority's 615-MW Unit 1 at the Fayette coal-fired power station in La Grange, among others.
Greg Elliott, Industrial Info's outages products manager, spoke about the situation: "With these consecutive days of high demand, peaking plants are being pushed to their limits," he said. "They are operating for periods of time much longer than intended, causing significant wear and tear on the equipment. If these peaking plants are forced offline for repairs, we'll begin to see real problems in meeting demand." Elliott added that the high temperatures are not only increasing power demand, but also are taxing power station equipment. "Water supplies used for cooling systems are simply not all that cool at the moment," he said. The warmer water is taking longer to cool equipment, which is causing operating problems and potentially leading to the de-rating of units.
Last week's critical situation caused the price of wholesale electricity sold in ERCOT to skyrocket. Spot prices for electricity reached their capped limit of $3,001 per megawatt-hour at peak times last week.
ERCOT has already had a difficult year, caused by the freezing temperatures that arrived in Texas in February. A record for winter peak demand was set February 10, when demand reached 57,315 MW. Earlier in the month, on February 2, ERCOT had been forced to institute rolling blackouts, as severe winter weather caused unplanned outages at many Texas power facilities. This was only the third time since 1989 that ERCOT has had to implement rolling blackouts.
While records for summer, winter and weekend power demand have already been set this year, the story may not be finished. This week's marginally cooler temperatures--although still more than 100 degrees Fahrenheit across much of the state--have allowed ERCOT a bit of breathing room, but the summer is not over. The combination of sweltering temperatures, increased power demand and potential unplanned outages could quite easily lead to the necessity for load shedding or rolling blackouts.
View Outage Report - 152191 152656 152605 152821 152297
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. IIR's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities.
Before last week (Aug. 7-13), the previous demand record was 65,776 MW, set on August 23, 2010--not coincidentally the day that most of the state's youngsters ended their summer holidays and returned to school. However, this record was shattered by more than 1,000 MW of extra demand on Monday, August 1, when demand peaked at 66,867 MW. Tuesday set a new record, and a new demand record was set again on Wednesday, August 3, with 68,294 MW of peak power demand between 4 p.m. and 5 p.m. Demand was kept in check on Thursday, as 1,500 MW of interruptible load was shed during peak hours, helping avoid the rolling blackouts that ERCOT had warned were possible. While demand eased over the weekend, Saturday brought a new weekend power demand record of 63,280 MW.
ERCOT was importing more than 1,000 MW of power from other grids on Thursday. Making matters worse were the unplanned outages of between 4,700 and 5,000 MW of generating capacity on Wednesday and Thursday. Significant unplanned outages in Texas last week included NRG Energy Incorporated's (NYSE:NRG) 838-MW Unit 1 at the Limestone coal-fired power station in Jewett and Lower Colorado River Authority's 615-MW Unit 1 at the Fayette coal-fired power station in La Grange, among others.
Greg Elliott, Industrial Info's outages products manager, spoke about the situation: "With these consecutive days of high demand, peaking plants are being pushed to their limits," he said. "They are operating for periods of time much longer than intended, causing significant wear and tear on the equipment. If these peaking plants are forced offline for repairs, we'll begin to see real problems in meeting demand." Elliott added that the high temperatures are not only increasing power demand, but also are taxing power station equipment. "Water supplies used for cooling systems are simply not all that cool at the moment," he said. The warmer water is taking longer to cool equipment, which is causing operating problems and potentially leading to the de-rating of units.
Last week's critical situation caused the price of wholesale electricity sold in ERCOT to skyrocket. Spot prices for electricity reached their capped limit of $3,001 per megawatt-hour at peak times last week.
ERCOT has already had a difficult year, caused by the freezing temperatures that arrived in Texas in February. A record for winter peak demand was set February 10, when demand reached 57,315 MW. Earlier in the month, on February 2, ERCOT had been forced to institute rolling blackouts, as severe winter weather caused unplanned outages at many Texas power facilities. This was only the third time since 1989 that ERCOT has had to implement rolling blackouts.
While records for summer, winter and weekend power demand have already been set this year, the story may not be finished. This week's marginally cooler temperatures--although still more than 100 degrees Fahrenheit across much of the state--have allowed ERCOT a bit of breathing room, but the summer is not over. The combination of sweltering temperatures, increased power demand and potential unplanned outages could quite easily lead to the necessity for load shedding or rolling blackouts.
View Outage Report - 152191 152656 152605 152821 152297
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. IIR's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities.
