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Released May 19, 2016 | SUGAR LAND
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Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Solar Power is shining brightly in the U.S., where developers have scheduled construction starts for 169 projects totaling $25.67 billion between the start of 2016 and the end of 2020, according to Industrial Info's North American Industrial Project Database. Under legislation passed last December by Congress, solar projects that begin construction before the end of 2019 are eligible for a 30% investment tax credit (ITC). That tax credit drops to 26% for projects that begin construction in 2020, 22% for projects that begin construction in 2021 and 10% for projects that begin construction in 2022 or after. For more on the tax credit extension, see December 21, 2015, article--Renewable, Alternative Energy Industries Cheer Extensions of Tax Credits.

Not surprisingly, California, Arizona and Nevada are the three states with the largest dollar value of solar projects under development. Developers plan to begin construction of 46 solar projects in California worth about $11.6 billion between 2016 and 2020. Arizona is second with five projects valued at $3.3 billion. Nevada is third with $2.6 billion of solar projects. Texas and North Carolina are the only other states with over $1 billion of scheduled project starts between 2016 and 2020.

Click to view solar power Click on the icon at right to see the top 10 state markets for solar power project activity between 2016 and 2020.

Development activity in 2016 and 2017 is expected to surge. Developers plan to start constructing 87 solar projects worth $8.8 billion this year. Next year, construction is scheduled to begin on 61 projects valued at $10.8 billion.

Industrial Info does not believe all of these solar power projects will kick off as planned; rather about 50% of planned projects will kick off as scheduled between now and 2020, largely driven largely by the availability of the ITC. But many projects will be delayed or cancelled due to an inability to secure financing or sign a power purchase agreement (PPA) with a utility company. The shakeout among solar developers, including last month's Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing by SunEdison Incorporated (Maryland Heights, Missouri), likely will delay construction kickoffs for some projects.

Renewable energy development has benefitted from President Obama's Clean Power Plan, currently being litigated in federal court, and by decisions by some states, notably California and Oregon, to increase their renewable portfolio standards (RPS). Last year, California ordered utilities in the state to have 50% of their electricity come from renewable sources by 2030. For more on that issue, see January 27, 2015, article--California Governor: 50% of Electricity from Renewables by 2030. Previously, utilities in California had been required to have 33% of their power come from renewable sources by 2020. Recently, Oregon doubled its RPS: By 2040, 40% of the state's electricity will come from renewable sources. For more on that, see March 23, 2016, article--Oregon Bans Coal, Doubles its Renewables Mandate.

Solar power costs have declined sharply in recent years, as panel costs have fallen amid rising demand. Gains in system efficiencies also have helped reduce the cost of generating electricity from the sun. Supportive state and federal policies have helped push solar closer to being competitive with other forms of electric generation.

In his Climate Action Plan, President Barack Obama set a goal of having 20,000 megawatts (MW) of renewable generation capacity built on government-owned land by 2020. The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) (Washington, D.C.), a branch of the Department of the Interior (DOI) (Washington, D.C.), said it has permitted 58 utility-scale renewable projects totaling nearly 15,500 MW since 2009. Solar power projects account for 35 of the 58 permitted projects, BLM said.

Solar power is a small but fast-growing segment of the Power industry. Solar generation--both utility scale and distributed--accounted for 29.4% of all electric generation brought online in 2015, according to the U.S. Solar Market Insight Report from Greentech Media and the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) (Washington, D.C.). Utility-scale projects exceeding 4,000 MW were brought online last year, and over 19,800 MW of utility-scale projects are being developed, the report said.

According to Industrial Info's North American Industrial Project Database, the largest utility-scale solar projects scheduled to kick off before the end of 2020 include:
  • Westlands PV Solar Park, a 600-MW, $1.2 billion project under development by Westlands Solar Park (Visalia, California). The project is scheduled to begin construction in late 2017 and begin operating in late 2019.
  • Sonoran Solar PV Energy, a 350-MW project scheduled to be built west of Phoenix, Arizona. The project has a value of $960 million. The developer, NextEra Energy Resources LLC (Juno Beach, Florida), a unit of NextEra Energy Incorporated (NYSE:NEE) (Juno Beach, Florida), has scheduled construction to begin in early 2018. The project is slated to be completed by mid-2019.
  • Southern Owens Valley PV Solar Ranch, being developed by the Los Angeles Department of Water & Power (LADWP) (Los Angeles, California), one of the nation's largest public-power utilities. This four-phase project, which has drawn sharp local criticism, is expected to total 200 MW. Construction is scheduled to begin in early 2018, and the first phase of the project is expected to be operating by late 2018. For more on this proposed project, see February 27, 2014, article--How Will Opposition and Controversies Affect Proposed Solar Farm For Los Angeles?
  • Calexico Solar Farm Phase 1, a 200-MW project also slated for southern California, scheduled to begin turning dirt in late 2016. Construction is expected to be completed by yearend 2017. This project is being developed by 8minutenergy Renewables LLC (Folsom, California).
"Solar developers have a very full project pipeline of utility-scale projects," said Britt Burt, vice president of global research for the Power Industry. "Smaller distributed projects, such as rooftop solar, are growing at an even-faster rate. While still only a small share of U.S. electric generating capacity, solar is growing rapidly. We expect solar power will keep developers, equipment manufacturers and engineering, procurement & construction (EPC) firms very busy for the next few years."

Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, five offices in North America and 10 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle™, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn. For more information on our coverage, send inquiries to info@industrialinfo.com or visit us online at http://www.industrialinfo.com/.
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