Released January 21, 2022 | SUGAR LAND
en
Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--The energy transition is not all that new for the U.S. Power Industry. For years now, construction of conventional natural gas- and coal-fired power plants has been giving way to renewable power facilities, especially solar and wind. In this week's 2022 U.S. & Canada Market Outlook webinar, Britt Burt, Industrial Info's vice president of research for the Power Industry, discussed the trends and drivers being seen in the industry and what we can expect in the future.
With the buildout of solar and wind capacity, so have retirements of coal-fired plants. Burt said Industrial Info has tracked about 105 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power that has been retired in North America since 2012 and an estimated 65 to 67 GW of retirements planned by the end of 2030. However, Burt cautioned that conventional forms of power still play a significant role in the country's baseload generation and will continue to do so.
Natural Gas
Natural gas provides the largest contribution to the U.S. energy mix, and according to Burt, it's not going away anytime soon. Burt said he expected about 9 to 10 GW of gas-fired power to come online this year. About $7 billion worth of high- and medium-probability natural gas-fired projects are set to kick off in 2022. Burt said the big question is how large of a role hydrogen will play in future natural gas-fired development. Gas turbines currently can burn about 30% hydrogen in a natural gas-hydrogen mix. Burt said, "The goals are to move that up to 80 to 100% over the next decade."
Burt said Industrial Info was still tracking a few coal-to-natural gas conversion projects. There also is a growing trend toward upgrades to aging gas turbines and heat recovery steam generators.
Solar & Wind
Burt said 56% of all new generation capacity added from 2016 through 2020 came from renewable energy, and that number increased even more in 2021. Burt said he expected solar energy to represent about half of the generating capacity brought online this year--about 21 GW--with Texas and California representing a substantial amount of this.
Burt said he expected about 15 GW of onshore wind power to be brought online this year. Offshore wind also is seeing some movement. Next month, the U.S. will hold its first auction for offshore wind acreage, in which about 500,000 acres will be auctioned for development. The U.S. has set the goal to generate 30 GW of power from offshore wind by 2030. Burt sees this target as formidable. "It took Europe 20 years to add that much offshore wind capacity, so I'm a little cautious on staying with that goal as a solid prediction."
Energy Storage
Energy storage remains a key link in the transition toward renewable forms of energy. When the wind isn't blowing or the sun isn't shining, solar and wind facilities are generating little, if any, power. For this reason, investment in battery energy storage systems (BESS) has rapidly grown in the U.S. over the last of couple of years. Burt says he anticipates BESS facilities to contribute about 10 GW to the grid by 2023, 10 times what was seen in 2019. Burt said Industrial Info is tracking about 25 GW worth of high-probability (80% to 99% of moving forward as planned) BESS projects set to kick off in the U.S. through 2023.
While solar and wind dominate the renewable energy buildout, Burt sees potential in pumped-storage hydropower projects, in which water is pumped to a reservoir in times of low demand and released for power generation in times of higher demand, providing a form of energy storage.
Nuclear
Burt said he doesn't see new nuclear capacity being added from traditional reactors in North America after Southern Company's (NYSE:SO) (Atlanta, Georgia) Vogtle units 3 and 4 are brought online. He said he expects different technologies such as small modular reactors (SMRs) to take a leading role in future development. Industrial Info is tracking about 7 GW of proposed nuclear power additions in North America, mostly in the form of next-generation reactors.
In addition, many nuclear plants in the U.S. are applying for extensions to their operating licenses, which often brings with them in-plant capital expenditures.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn.
With the buildout of solar and wind capacity, so have retirements of coal-fired plants. Burt said Industrial Info has tracked about 105 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power that has been retired in North America since 2012 and an estimated 65 to 67 GW of retirements planned by the end of 2030. However, Burt cautioned that conventional forms of power still play a significant role in the country's baseload generation and will continue to do so.
Natural Gas
Natural gas provides the largest contribution to the U.S. energy mix, and according to Burt, it's not going away anytime soon. Burt said he expected about 9 to 10 GW of gas-fired power to come online this year. About $7 billion worth of high- and medium-probability natural gas-fired projects are set to kick off in 2022. Burt said the big question is how large of a role hydrogen will play in future natural gas-fired development. Gas turbines currently can burn about 30% hydrogen in a natural gas-hydrogen mix. Burt said, "The goals are to move that up to 80 to 100% over the next decade."
Burt said Industrial Info was still tracking a few coal-to-natural gas conversion projects. There also is a growing trend toward upgrades to aging gas turbines and heat recovery steam generators.
Solar & Wind
Burt said 56% of all new generation capacity added from 2016 through 2020 came from renewable energy, and that number increased even more in 2021. Burt said he expected solar energy to represent about half of the generating capacity brought online this year--about 21 GW--with Texas and California representing a substantial amount of this.
Burt said he expected about 15 GW of onshore wind power to be brought online this year. Offshore wind also is seeing some movement. Next month, the U.S. will hold its first auction for offshore wind acreage, in which about 500,000 acres will be auctioned for development. The U.S. has set the goal to generate 30 GW of power from offshore wind by 2030. Burt sees this target as formidable. "It took Europe 20 years to add that much offshore wind capacity, so I'm a little cautious on staying with that goal as a solid prediction."
Energy Storage
Energy storage remains a key link in the transition toward renewable forms of energy. When the wind isn't blowing or the sun isn't shining, solar and wind facilities are generating little, if any, power. For this reason, investment in battery energy storage systems (BESS) has rapidly grown in the U.S. over the last of couple of years. Burt says he anticipates BESS facilities to contribute about 10 GW to the grid by 2023, 10 times what was seen in 2019. Burt said Industrial Info is tracking about 25 GW worth of high-probability (80% to 99% of moving forward as planned) BESS projects set to kick off in the U.S. through 2023.
While solar and wind dominate the renewable energy buildout, Burt sees potential in pumped-storage hydropower projects, in which water is pumped to a reservoir in times of low demand and released for power generation in times of higher demand, providing a form of energy storage.
Nuclear
Burt said he doesn't see new nuclear capacity being added from traditional reactors in North America after Southern Company's (NYSE:SO) (Atlanta, Georgia) Vogtle units 3 and 4 are brought online. He said he expects different technologies such as small modular reactors (SMRs) to take a leading role in future development. Industrial Info is tracking about 7 GW of proposed nuclear power additions in North America, mostly in the form of next-generation reactors.
In addition, many nuclear plants in the U.S. are applying for extensions to their operating licenses, which often brings with them in-plant capital expenditures.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn.
