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Released November 25, 2025 | SUGAR LAND
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Written by Daniel Graeber for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land Texas)
North Dakota regulators released production data for September, showing oil production averaged 1.16 million barrels per day (BBL/d). That equates to about 10% of total U.S. inland crude oil production, but marks a 0.43% decline from August levels.
"This is seasonal; however, I do believe that some of the reduction there is related to softer commodity prices that we have been seeing the last several months," Nathan Anderson, the director of the state's Department of Natural Resources, said Friday.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark for the price of oil, averaged $56.69 per barrel in September, which was 3.9% below the state's revenue forecast. WTI as of early Monday was trading at $58.11 per barrel, still below the $59 levels outlined in the state budget.
Through September, there were 6.5 million feet of laterals completed in North Dakota, compared to 10.6 million for all of 2024. During the third quarter, state regulators said 12,076 feet of laterals were completed, an all-time high.
That might not be good news, however. Analysts at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) found that 94% of inland crude oil production came from horizontal wells and those have a high rate of decline.
"To offset the increasing declines, operators today must bring on new wells to sustain or increase production levels," EIA analysts stated in early November.
Bakken crude oil production, along with the majority of the shale basins in the Lower 48 states, is on pace to decline next year. EIA, the statistical arm of the Department of Energy, is expecting total Bakken production to decline from an average of 1.2 million BBL/d in 2025 to 1.17 million BBL/d by next year.
Compounding the issue, WTI is expected to average $51.26 per barrel next year, according to the EIA. That's well below North Dakota's budgeted level, and below the point at which shale drillers in general can make a profit.
By next year, the U.S. territorial waters of the Gulf of Mexico are the only source of meaningful growth in domestic crude oil production.
Interest is there, however, and the state does well at capturing the gas that's associated with crude oil production. The 1.49-gigawatt Bison Generation Station in North Dakota will run on a combination of gas-powered and steam-powered turbines.
Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Project Database can learn more by viewing the project report.
Bison Pipeline LLC, a joint venture between TC Energy (Calgary, Alberta) and ONEOK (Tulsa, Oklahoma), wants to increase the gas capacity on the Northern Plains network from 420 million cubic feet per day to 430 million cubic feet per day. Subscribers can learn more about the Bison Xpress project here.
Key Takeaways
About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).
Summary
Seasonal factors in the northern shale state likely curbed crude oil production this year. By next year, crude oil prices could be well below budgeted levels.Data to September Show Declines
Crude oil prices are below budgeted levels and production is on the decline, data from North Dakota state regulators showed.North Dakota regulators released production data for September, showing oil production averaged 1.16 million barrels per day (BBL/d). That equates to about 10% of total U.S. inland crude oil production, but marks a 0.43% decline from August levels.
"This is seasonal; however, I do believe that some of the reduction there is related to softer commodity prices that we have been seeing the last several months," Nathan Anderson, the director of the state's Department of Natural Resources, said Friday.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark for the price of oil, averaged $56.69 per barrel in September, which was 3.9% below the state's revenue forecast. WTI as of early Monday was trading at $58.11 per barrel, still below the $59 levels outlined in the state budget.
Long Laterals, for Better or Worse
Upstream activity, however, held steady at around 30 rigs, with Continental Resources (Oklahoma City) and a division of Hess Corporation, part of Chevron (Houston, Texas), doing the majority of the upstream work in North Dakota. Operators are doing more with less, and state regulators noted the issuance of permits for 3- and 4-mile laterals in the Bakken shale patch.Through September, there were 6.5 million feet of laterals completed in North Dakota, compared to 10.6 million for all of 2024. During the third quarter, state regulators said 12,076 feet of laterals were completed, an all-time high.
That might not be good news, however. Analysts at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) found that 94% of inland crude oil production came from horizontal wells and those have a high rate of decline.
"To offset the increasing declines, operators today must bring on new wells to sustain or increase production levels," EIA analysts stated in early November.
Bakken crude oil production, along with the majority of the shale basins in the Lower 48 states, is on pace to decline next year. EIA, the statistical arm of the Department of Energy, is expecting total Bakken production to decline from an average of 1.2 million BBL/d in 2025 to 1.17 million BBL/d by next year.
Compounding the issue, WTI is expected to average $51.26 per barrel next year, according to the EIA. That's well below North Dakota's budgeted level, and below the point at which shale drillers in general can make a profit.
By next year, the U.S. territorial waters of the Gulf of Mexico are the only source of meaningful growth in domestic crude oil production.
The Natural Gas Picture
The Bakken is not a standout in terms of natural gas production, though levels should hold steady at around 3.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), accounting for only around 3% of what's expected from the Lower 48.Interest is there, however, and the state does well at capturing the gas that's associated with crude oil production. The 1.49-gigawatt Bison Generation Station in North Dakota will run on a combination of gas-powered and steam-powered turbines.
Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Project Database can learn more by viewing the project report.
Bison Pipeline LLC, a joint venture between TC Energy (Calgary, Alberta) and ONEOK (Tulsa, Oklahoma), wants to increase the gas capacity on the Northern Plains network from 420 million cubic feet per day to 430 million cubic feet per day. Subscribers can learn more about the Bison Xpress project here.
Key Takeaways
- Bakken crude oil production under threat.
- Longer laterals, but those decline quickly.
- State budget might be squeezed by lower oil prices.
- $51.26: Projected price of WTI for 2026, not good for shale
- 12,076 feet: Laterals in North Dakota during the third quarter
- 0.43%: Decline in oil production from August levels
About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).
