Released April 08, 2022 | SUGAR LAND
en
Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Hope all are well this second Friday of April as global outrage was sparked earlier this week in Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
AP News: Russia faces global outrage over bodies in Ukraine's streets
Moscow faced global revulsion and accusations of war crimes Monday after the Russian pullout from the outskirts of Kyiv revealed streets, buildings and yards strewn with corpses of what appeared to be civilians, many of them evidently killed at close range.
The grisly images of battered or burned bodies left out in the open or hastily buried led to calls for tougher sanctions against the Kremlin, especially a cutoff of fuel imports from Russia. Germany and France reacted by expelling dozens of Russian diplomats, suggesting they were spies, and U.S. President Joe Biden said Russian leader Vladimir Putin should be tried for war crimes.
"This guy is brutal, and what's happening in Bucha is outrageous," Biden said, referring to the town northwest of the capital that was the scene of some of the horrors.
Now Russia (is being) suspended from U.N. Human Rights Council.
World leaders stepped up efforts to isolate Russia in response to mounting evidence of war crimes in Ukraine, with the United Nations voting Thursday to suspend the Russian delegation from the Human Rights Council and the European Union approving a plan to phase out imports of Russian coal. The coal ban, which will take full effect mid-August, is the fifth sanctions package against Russia to be adopted by the E.U. Though Ukrainian leaders have urged Western allies to do more to stem the flow of money to Russia, Thursday's vote applies only to coal and does not ban other Russian energy imports, like natural gas and oil. Global outrage has grown since the brutal slaying of civilians in the Kyiv suburb of Bucha was revealed after Russian forces withdrew.
Though, Mr. WTI Oil Market initially "spiked" on this news; there has been more pressure to the downside with the US announced SPR release as well as IEA members and of course Chinese demand being impacted further by COVID lockdowns -- which also pose a growing threat to the world's economy (CNN) -- as now price has dipped below $100. Is this going to be the foreseeable trend?
Barchart: Crude Prices Firm On Global Supply Concerns.
May WTI crude oil this morning is up by +0.15 (+0.16%), and May RBOB gasoline is up by +1.96 (+0.64%). May Nymex natural gas is down -0.054 (-0.85%).
WTI crude oil and RBOB gasoline prices this morning are slightly higher. Global crude supply fears continue to underpin prices on concern the war in Ukraine may disrupt global oil supplies. However, gains in crude are limited as the dollar jumped to a 1-3/4 year high today and as Chinese energy demand remains weak due to COVID lockdowns throughout the country.
With honest concerns that a global economic recession is indeed on the way.
CNBC: Is a recession on the way? These unconventional economic indicators may provide some clues
It's not just bond and stock markets that can signal an economic downturn. From the men's underwear index, to the hemline index, there are also a number of more unconventional economic indicators that could be worth monitoring. Fears of a recession have been on the rise recently. Investors have become increasingly concerned that record-high inflation amid the Russia-Ukraine war, coupled with the Federal Reserve's plans to aggressively hike interest rates, could slow economic growth.
This deepening sense of unease has been reflected in the U.S. government bond market, through what is known as a yield curve inversion, which has historically occurred prior to recessions. Investors have been selling out of short-dated Treasurys in favor of longer-dated government debt, prompting 2-year bonds yields to rise above the 10-year rate.
However, economists have stressed that an inversion in bond yields is by no means a guarantee of a recession. Indeed, this indicator can emerge as much as two years before an economic downturn takes hold.
However, the question posed in IIR's Crude & Products Market Scorecard earlier this week--Supply or not to Supply is still one of the foremost concerns...'tis the question. OPEC(+) answered by holding its course - even though the compliance by its members has meant nearly ~1mmbl/d of supply to world markets is not being met; whereas, the U.S. announced an unprecedented release from its SPR amounting to ~ 1mmbl/d - enough to offset what is missing from OPEC(+) but the world could still remain short by upwards of ~3 mmbl/d+. Albeit to address such other U.S. allies might follow with announced releases from their respective SPRs in the name of energy security in these troubled markets. Troubled even more so by global outrage over Russia's alleged war crimes in Ukraine. Though the world also remains troubled by potential dangers of climate change with a recent IPCC report indicating fossil fuels are toast. Not really; however, the world will face choices of energy supply in the decades to come...
For now like the US SPR unprecedented release -- IEA confirms member country contributions to second collective action to release oil stocks in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Following an agreement on 1 April by IEA member countries for a new emergency release of oil stocks, the IEA Governing Board confirmed today that the total amount committed to date stands at 120 million barrels, making it the largest stock release in IEA history.
The unanimous agreement among IEA member countries on 1 April for a second collective action this year came in response to the significant strains in oil markets resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In the days since the decision, each IEA member country has been considering how much it could contribute to the announced response plan, given its domestic circumstances.
The commitments submitted by members reached 120 million barrels to be released over a six month period, demonstrating strong unity. The United States will contribute about 60 million barrels, which are part of the larger drawdown from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) that was announced on 31 March.
Over the next six months, around 240 million barrels of emergency oil stocks, the equivalent of well over 1 million barrels per day, will be made available to the global market.
"The unprecedented decision to launch two emergency oil stock releases just a month apart, and on a scale larger than anything before in the IEA's history, reflects the determination of member countries to protect the global economy from the social and economic impacts of an oil shock following Russia's aggression against Ukraine," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
And bringing it back Stateside, there is more bearish news as U.S. Crude-Oil Inventories Surprisingly Increase (MarketWatch).
U.S. crude-oil inventories unexpectedly increased last week, but gasoline stockpiles declined much more than forecast, according to data released Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration.
Benchmark U.S. oil prices that were slightly higher before the mixed-to-bearish report was released turned slightly lower afterward. The Nymex front-month crude contract for May delivery was recently down 0.3% at $101.67 a barrel.
Crude-oil stockpiles climbed by 2.4 million barrels to 412.4 million barrels, and remain about 14% below the five-year average, the EIA said. Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had predicted crude stockpiles would fall by 1.6 million barrels from the prior week.
Oil stored at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for U.S. stocks, rose by 1.7 million barrels from the previous week, to 25.9 million barrels, the EIA said in its weekly report. U.S. crude-oil production rose by 100,000 barrels a day from the previous week to 11.8 million barrels a day, according to the EIA.
Gasoline stockpiles fell by 2 million barrels to 236.8 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations for inventories to decrease by just 200,000 barrels from the previous week.
Click on the image at right for the Weekly EIA Crude Oil Status Report Analyst Survey.
Click on the image at right U.S. petroleum inventories in million barrels.
IIR/DOE Weekly Refinery Report for the Week Ending on April 1st, 2022
Leaders of six large oil companies are scheduled to testify today in Congress about high gasoline prices amid allegations from Democrats that profiteering is to blame. The oil executives are expected to cite results from a Dallas Fed survey that investor pressure to continue exercising "capital discipline" is the main reason they are not spending heavily to develop new oil resources or expand production significantly, despite high prices. President Biden's decision March 31 to release 180 million barrels of oil over six months from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve briefly pushed down crude oil prices. But in the days since that announcement, and statements from other nations that they, too, could release oil from their strategic reserves, prices have largely recovered. US crude oil production rose 100 kbd to 11.7 mbd for the week ended March 25, the first increase in months. Production remains 1.4 mbd under pre-pandemic peaks. Shell completed the sale of its 80,000 bpd Mobile Refinery in Alabama; the new owner intends to continue the conversion of the Hydrocracking unit to produce renewable diesel fuel. Against this backdrop, the DOE reported today that US crude oil inventories rose ▲ 2.4 million barrels to 412.4 million barrels for the week ended April 1.
And not only is the world wrestling with crude supply but a diesel supply crunch. Although, Energy Intelligence reports Russian Oil Production, Exports Defy Expectations.
Russia's oil production and exports demonstrated a paradox last month: Output was down from the previous month despite its bigger quota under the OPEC-plus deal, while exports were up despite expectations they would decline as customers shun Russian oil.
According to data from the Russian energy ministry, output of crude oil and gas condensate dropped by 65,000 barrels per day to 10.996 million b/d last month from 11.061 million b/d in February. Crude production excluding gas condensate stood at 10 million b/d in March, down from 10.064 million b/d in the previous month. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the 0.6% decline in crude and condensate output was due to the restructuring of export flows in light of the logistical and financial challenges.
But a 5% increase in Russian crude exports to non-former Soviet Union (FSU) countries could mean that the main problem is still an absence of spare production capacity.
This in the context of how the world's food-water-energy nexus is being stressed and in some places reaching a breaking point. For yet more evidence is illustrating a food catastrophe is looming. And in some places will driver higher levels of unrest...
Globe and Mail: Higher food prices from Ukraine war will push up to 47 million people into acute hunger, UN says....The war is sparking a rise in food prices in many countries. As many as 47 million additional people will fall into acute hunger in 81 countries worldwide this year because of higher grain and fuel prices resulting from the Ukraine war, with African countries likely to be the hardest hit, according to a report released on Thursday by the United Nations World Food Programme.
Even if the war is over by the end of this month, acute hunger globally will still increase by 33 million people, the report found. "The Ukraine crisis has taken a bad situation and made it much worse," it said.
Compared to the last major food crisis in 2008, vulnerable families don't have the same coping capacity and governments cannot finance social support programs as easily, largely because of the depressed incomes and debt distress that became more widespread during the COVID-19 pandemic, the report said.
Let IIR place the Crude & Products world at your fingertips... Tomorrow's News Today.
Ask us! We have answers!!
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the world's leading provider of market intelligence across the upstream, midstream and downstream energy markets and all other major industrial markets. IIR's Global Market Intelligence Platform (GMI) supports our end-users across their core businesses, and helps them connect trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated project opportunities. Follow IIR on: LinkedIn.
AP News: Russia faces global outrage over bodies in Ukraine's streets
Moscow faced global revulsion and accusations of war crimes Monday after the Russian pullout from the outskirts of Kyiv revealed streets, buildings and yards strewn with corpses of what appeared to be civilians, many of them evidently killed at close range.
The grisly images of battered or burned bodies left out in the open or hastily buried led to calls for tougher sanctions against the Kremlin, especially a cutoff of fuel imports from Russia. Germany and France reacted by expelling dozens of Russian diplomats, suggesting they were spies, and U.S. President Joe Biden said Russian leader Vladimir Putin should be tried for war crimes.
"This guy is brutal, and what's happening in Bucha is outrageous," Biden said, referring to the town northwest of the capital that was the scene of some of the horrors.
Now Russia (is being) suspended from U.N. Human Rights Council.
World leaders stepped up efforts to isolate Russia in response to mounting evidence of war crimes in Ukraine, with the United Nations voting Thursday to suspend the Russian delegation from the Human Rights Council and the European Union approving a plan to phase out imports of Russian coal. The coal ban, which will take full effect mid-August, is the fifth sanctions package against Russia to be adopted by the E.U. Though Ukrainian leaders have urged Western allies to do more to stem the flow of money to Russia, Thursday's vote applies only to coal and does not ban other Russian energy imports, like natural gas and oil. Global outrage has grown since the brutal slaying of civilians in the Kyiv suburb of Bucha was revealed after Russian forces withdrew.
Though, Mr. WTI Oil Market initially "spiked" on this news; there has been more pressure to the downside with the US announced SPR release as well as IEA members and of course Chinese demand being impacted further by COVID lockdowns -- which also pose a growing threat to the world's economy (CNN) -- as now price has dipped below $100. Is this going to be the foreseeable trend?
Barchart: Crude Prices Firm On Global Supply Concerns.
May WTI crude oil this morning is up by +0.15 (+0.16%), and May RBOB gasoline is up by +1.96 (+0.64%). May Nymex natural gas is down -0.054 (-0.85%).
WTI crude oil and RBOB gasoline prices this morning are slightly higher. Global crude supply fears continue to underpin prices on concern the war in Ukraine may disrupt global oil supplies. However, gains in crude are limited as the dollar jumped to a 1-3/4 year high today and as Chinese energy demand remains weak due to COVID lockdowns throughout the country.
With honest concerns that a global economic recession is indeed on the way.
CNBC: Is a recession on the way? These unconventional economic indicators may provide some clues
It's not just bond and stock markets that can signal an economic downturn. From the men's underwear index, to the hemline index, there are also a number of more unconventional economic indicators that could be worth monitoring. Fears of a recession have been on the rise recently. Investors have become increasingly concerned that record-high inflation amid the Russia-Ukraine war, coupled with the Federal Reserve's plans to aggressively hike interest rates, could slow economic growth.
This deepening sense of unease has been reflected in the U.S. government bond market, through what is known as a yield curve inversion, which has historically occurred prior to recessions. Investors have been selling out of short-dated Treasurys in favor of longer-dated government debt, prompting 2-year bonds yields to rise above the 10-year rate.
However, economists have stressed that an inversion in bond yields is by no means a guarantee of a recession. Indeed, this indicator can emerge as much as two years before an economic downturn takes hold.
However, the question posed in IIR's Crude & Products Market Scorecard earlier this week--Supply or not to Supply is still one of the foremost concerns...'tis the question. OPEC(+) answered by holding its course - even though the compliance by its members has meant nearly ~1mmbl/d of supply to world markets is not being met; whereas, the U.S. announced an unprecedented release from its SPR amounting to ~ 1mmbl/d - enough to offset what is missing from OPEC(+) but the world could still remain short by upwards of ~3 mmbl/d+. Albeit to address such other U.S. allies might follow with announced releases from their respective SPRs in the name of energy security in these troubled markets. Troubled even more so by global outrage over Russia's alleged war crimes in Ukraine. Though the world also remains troubled by potential dangers of climate change with a recent IPCC report indicating fossil fuels are toast. Not really; however, the world will face choices of energy supply in the decades to come...
For now like the US SPR unprecedented release -- IEA confirms member country contributions to second collective action to release oil stocks in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Following an agreement on 1 April by IEA member countries for a new emergency release of oil stocks, the IEA Governing Board confirmed today that the total amount committed to date stands at 120 million barrels, making it the largest stock release in IEA history.
The unanimous agreement among IEA member countries on 1 April for a second collective action this year came in response to the significant strains in oil markets resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In the days since the decision, each IEA member country has been considering how much it could contribute to the announced response plan, given its domestic circumstances.
The commitments submitted by members reached 120 million barrels to be released over a six month period, demonstrating strong unity. The United States will contribute about 60 million barrels, which are part of the larger drawdown from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) that was announced on 31 March.
Over the next six months, around 240 million barrels of emergency oil stocks, the equivalent of well over 1 million barrels per day, will be made available to the global market.
"The unprecedented decision to launch two emergency oil stock releases just a month apart, and on a scale larger than anything before in the IEA's history, reflects the determination of member countries to protect the global economy from the social and economic impacts of an oil shock following Russia's aggression against Ukraine," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
And bringing it back Stateside, there is more bearish news as U.S. Crude-Oil Inventories Surprisingly Increase (MarketWatch).
U.S. crude-oil inventories unexpectedly increased last week, but gasoline stockpiles declined much more than forecast, according to data released Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration.
Benchmark U.S. oil prices that were slightly higher before the mixed-to-bearish report was released turned slightly lower afterward. The Nymex front-month crude contract for May delivery was recently down 0.3% at $101.67 a barrel.
Crude-oil stockpiles climbed by 2.4 million barrels to 412.4 million barrels, and remain about 14% below the five-year average, the EIA said. Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had predicted crude stockpiles would fall by 1.6 million barrels from the prior week.
Oil stored at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for U.S. stocks, rose by 1.7 million barrels from the previous week, to 25.9 million barrels, the EIA said in its weekly report. U.S. crude-oil production rose by 100,000 barrels a day from the previous week to 11.8 million barrels a day, according to the EIA.
Gasoline stockpiles fell by 2 million barrels to 236.8 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations for inventories to decrease by just 200,000 barrels from the previous week.
IIR/DOE Weekly Refinery Report for the Week Ending on April 1st, 2022
Leaders of six large oil companies are scheduled to testify today in Congress about high gasoline prices amid allegations from Democrats that profiteering is to blame. The oil executives are expected to cite results from a Dallas Fed survey that investor pressure to continue exercising "capital discipline" is the main reason they are not spending heavily to develop new oil resources or expand production significantly, despite high prices. President Biden's decision March 31 to release 180 million barrels of oil over six months from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve briefly pushed down crude oil prices. But in the days since that announcement, and statements from other nations that they, too, could release oil from their strategic reserves, prices have largely recovered. US crude oil production rose 100 kbd to 11.7 mbd for the week ended March 25, the first increase in months. Production remains 1.4 mbd under pre-pandemic peaks. Shell completed the sale of its 80,000 bpd Mobile Refinery in Alabama; the new owner intends to continue the conversion of the Hydrocracking unit to produce renewable diesel fuel. Against this backdrop, the DOE reported today that US crude oil inventories rose ▲ 2.4 million barrels to 412.4 million barrels for the week ended April 1.
And not only is the world wrestling with crude supply but a diesel supply crunch. Although, Energy Intelligence reports Russian Oil Production, Exports Defy Expectations.
Russia's oil production and exports demonstrated a paradox last month: Output was down from the previous month despite its bigger quota under the OPEC-plus deal, while exports were up despite expectations they would decline as customers shun Russian oil.
According to data from the Russian energy ministry, output of crude oil and gas condensate dropped by 65,000 barrels per day to 10.996 million b/d last month from 11.061 million b/d in February. Crude production excluding gas condensate stood at 10 million b/d in March, down from 10.064 million b/d in the previous month. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the 0.6% decline in crude and condensate output was due to the restructuring of export flows in light of the logistical and financial challenges.
But a 5% increase in Russian crude exports to non-former Soviet Union (FSU) countries could mean that the main problem is still an absence of spare production capacity.
This in the context of how the world's food-water-energy nexus is being stressed and in some places reaching a breaking point. For yet more evidence is illustrating a food catastrophe is looming. And in some places will driver higher levels of unrest...
Globe and Mail: Higher food prices from Ukraine war will push up to 47 million people into acute hunger, UN says....The war is sparking a rise in food prices in many countries. As many as 47 million additional people will fall into acute hunger in 81 countries worldwide this year because of higher grain and fuel prices resulting from the Ukraine war, with African countries likely to be the hardest hit, according to a report released on Thursday by the United Nations World Food Programme.
Even if the war is over by the end of this month, acute hunger globally will still increase by 33 million people, the report found. "The Ukraine crisis has taken a bad situation and made it much worse," it said.
Compared to the last major food crisis in 2008, vulnerable families don't have the same coping capacity and governments cannot finance social support programs as easily, largely because of the depressed incomes and debt distress that became more widespread during the COVID-19 pandemic, the report said.
Let IIR place the Crude & Products world at your fingertips... Tomorrow's News Today.
Ask us! We have answers!!
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the world's leading provider of market intelligence across the upstream, midstream and downstream energy markets and all other major industrial markets. IIR's Global Market Intelligence Platform (GMI) supports our end-users across their core businesses, and helps them connect trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated project opportunities. Follow IIR on: LinkedIn.
