Released November 12, 2024 | SUGAR LAND
en
Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Over the next two weeks, as many as 40,000 people engaged in climate change work are expected to travel to Baku, Azerbaijan, to participate in the annual U.N. climate change summit, which began November 11. Several grim global warming realities will greet those national energy and climate officials, environmental advocates, non-governmental organizations, representatives of industry, consulting firms, academics and others:
In the "WEO 2024" report and its other work, the energy agency has asserted that a decarbonized energy system is not only cleaner and less expensive compared to a system dominated by hydrocarbons, but also less subject to disruption. It cited the disruption and uncertainties created by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 as a case in point: energy prices skyrocketed in the aftermath of the February 2022 invasion, but there was longer-term damage to energy and manufacturing in the form of broken supply chains that needed to be rebuilt.
But wars aren't the only thing threatening global energy security. There is a scientific consensus that warming temperatures have made severe weather more extreme and damaging: hurricanes are strengthening faster, floods are more destructive, wildfires are more aggressive, and tornadoes have become more devastating. And temperatures continue to grow in lockstep with rising CO2 emissions.
Click on the image at right to see a chart of rising global CO2 emissions and increasing temperature rise since 1950.
"All parties need to recognize that locking in fossil fuel use has consequences," the report said. "There may be downward pressure on fuel prices for a while, but energy history tells us that one day the cycle will be reversed, and prices will rise. And the costs of climate inaction, meanwhile, grow higher by the day as emissions accumulate in the atmosphere and extreme weather imposes its own unpredictable price. By contrast, clean technologies that are increasingly cost-effective today are set to remain so, with greatly reduced exposure to the vagaries of commodity markets and lasting benefits for people and planet."
The global energy system is composed of numerous sub-systems, such as fuels and technologies, and it contains important flash points, such as between wealthier Global North and less-wealthy Global South countries. The complexity of reordering such a large and unwieldly system is one reason the WEO reports are so lengthy: This year's version was 398 pages. For more coverage of the "WEO 2024" report, see November 1, 2024, article - IEA: To Defeat Global Warming, Boost Funding of Energy Transition in Global South; November 4, 2024, article - IEA Report Assesses How Global Oil Demand Will Fare if EV Ownership Surges as Projected; and November 6, 2024, article - IEA: LNG Terminal Buildout Veers Towards a Glut, Upending Energy Mix.
For several years, the IEA has used three scenarios to suggest what future energy demand and CO2 emissions could look like to 2050 as the world works to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement to limit global emissions of CO2 as a way to combat global warming. The agency emphasized that its three scenarios were not predictions. Rather, they were sketches of possible futures that could result from different levels of governmental action across countries.
The IEA's three scenarios are:
Global cumulative installed capacity of wind generation could vary from just under 3,000 GW to about 4,500 GW by that year, the IEA said.
Renewable energy development has been on a tear for years, but will it be enough to defeat global warming? The IEA is not optimistic: "The STEPS trajectory implies an average temperature increase of 2.4 degrees Celsius by 2100. In the APS, the increase is 1.7 Celsius, while this (report's) updated NZE Scenario shows an increasingly narrow but still achievable pathway to limiting the temperature rise to below 1.5 Celsius."
The production and use of all forms of energy accounts for most of global CO2 emissions. The electricity industry alone released about 15 gigatons of CO2 last year, out of a global market of about 40 gigatons. Thus, pushing on any single energy button is not enough to save the world from climate peril, the report said. An integrated, holistic solution is needed, and soon, the report urged.
The energy agency has emphasized that simply building renewable generation, albeit at a breakneck pace, will not be enough to forestall the worst ravages of global warming. Hydrocarbon use must also be curtailed, and the sooner the better, in the IEA's opinion. The "WEO 2024" report looked at the global electric generation market across its three scenarios to 2050: All show dramatic gains in non-emitting generation such as solar, wind, nuclear and other types of renewables. Hydroelectric generation appears to be a constant across all three cases. Unabated coal and natural gas generation shrinks but remains a piece of the global electric market to 2050 in the STEPS case. In the most aggressive case, NZE, those fuels vanish sometime in the 2030s.
Around the world, the Electric Power industry invested slightly more than $1 trillion in all aspects of its business last year. About half of that went to solar and wind, and one-third to transmission & distribution (T&D) assets. Looking forward to 2035, across all three scenarios, the IEA sees sharply increased annual investments, specifically a jump in T&D spending.
"After 2030," the report said, "the level of investment in almost all low-emissions sources of electricity stabilizes or falls back slightly because so much has already been done to decarbonize power supply by this time, especially in advanced economies. However, the level of investment in grids and batteries increases to facilitate their crucial role in the increasing levels of electrification of the end-uses. In the STEPS, investment in grids nearly doubles by 2050 from its current level, while investment in batteries increases 4.6-times. In the APS (case), investment in grids is 2.4-times higher than today, and investment in batteries is five-times higher."
IEA Executive director Fatih Birol commented, "In the second half of this decade, the prospect of more ample--or even surplus--supplies of oil and natural gas, depending on how geopolitical tensions evolve, ... implies downward pressure on prices, providing some relief for consumers that have been hit hard by price spikes. The breathing space from fuel price pressures can provide policymakers with room to focus on stepping up investments in clean energy transitions and removing inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. This means government policies and consumer choices will have huge consequences for the future of the energy sector and for tackling climate change."
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
- Most nations are not fully meeting their pledges to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.
- The world experienced its hottest-ever annual temperature in 2023 and may be on track to surpass that this year.
- Over the last year, global average temperature gain on several occasions exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial times, surpassing one of the targets adopted by the world's nations at prior U.N. climate summits.
- Despite trillions of dollars invested globally in non-emitting energy sources over the last 15 years, worldwide CO2 emissions have not fallen.
- Population growth in China and India, and the rising economic aspirations of people in both countries, are projected to continue driving up global energy consumption and CO2 emissions.
- Newly elected President Donald Trump is expected to fulfill his pledge to pull the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement, as he did in 2017 during his first term as president.
- Instead of the decarbonization agenda being pushed by President Joe Biden, President-elect Trump has expressed more support for fossil fuel interests.
- The world's wealthier nations have fallen far short of their 2009 pledge of $150 billion per year in financial support for less-wealthy nations to decarbonize their economies and protect against the ravages of global warming.
In the "WEO 2024" report and its other work, the energy agency has asserted that a decarbonized energy system is not only cleaner and less expensive compared to a system dominated by hydrocarbons, but also less subject to disruption. It cited the disruption and uncertainties created by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 as a case in point: energy prices skyrocketed in the aftermath of the February 2022 invasion, but there was longer-term damage to energy and manufacturing in the form of broken supply chains that needed to be rebuilt.
But wars aren't the only thing threatening global energy security. There is a scientific consensus that warming temperatures have made severe weather more extreme and damaging: hurricanes are strengthening faster, floods are more destructive, wildfires are more aggressive, and tornadoes have become more devastating. And temperatures continue to grow in lockstep with rising CO2 emissions.
"All parties need to recognize that locking in fossil fuel use has consequences," the report said. "There may be downward pressure on fuel prices for a while, but energy history tells us that one day the cycle will be reversed, and prices will rise. And the costs of climate inaction, meanwhile, grow higher by the day as emissions accumulate in the atmosphere and extreme weather imposes its own unpredictable price. By contrast, clean technologies that are increasingly cost-effective today are set to remain so, with greatly reduced exposure to the vagaries of commodity markets and lasting benefits for people and planet."
The global energy system is composed of numerous sub-systems, such as fuels and technologies, and it contains important flash points, such as between wealthier Global North and less-wealthy Global South countries. The complexity of reordering such a large and unwieldly system is one reason the WEO reports are so lengthy: This year's version was 398 pages. For more coverage of the "WEO 2024" report, see November 1, 2024, article - IEA: To Defeat Global Warming, Boost Funding of Energy Transition in Global South; November 4, 2024, article - IEA Report Assesses How Global Oil Demand Will Fare if EV Ownership Surges as Projected; and November 6, 2024, article - IEA: LNG Terminal Buildout Veers Towards a Glut, Upending Energy Mix.
For several years, the IEA has used three scenarios to suggest what future energy demand and CO2 emissions could look like to 2050 as the world works to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement to limit global emissions of CO2 as a way to combat global warming. The agency emphasized that its three scenarios were not predictions. Rather, they were sketches of possible futures that could result from different levels of governmental action across countries.
The IEA's three scenarios are:
- Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) is effectively the continuation of current actions, or business as usual
- Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) shows what would happen if all national energy and climate targets made by governments, including net zero goals, were met in full and on time
- Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE) maps out "an increasingly narrow path" to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century in a way that limits long-term average temperature gain to 1.5 degrees Celsius over preindustrial times.
Global cumulative installed capacity of wind generation could vary from just under 3,000 GW to about 4,500 GW by that year, the IEA said.
Renewable energy development has been on a tear for years, but will it be enough to defeat global warming? The IEA is not optimistic: "The STEPS trajectory implies an average temperature increase of 2.4 degrees Celsius by 2100. In the APS, the increase is 1.7 Celsius, while this (report's) updated NZE Scenario shows an increasingly narrow but still achievable pathway to limiting the temperature rise to below 1.5 Celsius."
The production and use of all forms of energy accounts for most of global CO2 emissions. The electricity industry alone released about 15 gigatons of CO2 last year, out of a global market of about 40 gigatons. Thus, pushing on any single energy button is not enough to save the world from climate peril, the report said. An integrated, holistic solution is needed, and soon, the report urged.
The energy agency has emphasized that simply building renewable generation, albeit at a breakneck pace, will not be enough to forestall the worst ravages of global warming. Hydrocarbon use must also be curtailed, and the sooner the better, in the IEA's opinion. The "WEO 2024" report looked at the global electric generation market across its three scenarios to 2050: All show dramatic gains in non-emitting generation such as solar, wind, nuclear and other types of renewables. Hydroelectric generation appears to be a constant across all three cases. Unabated coal and natural gas generation shrinks but remains a piece of the global electric market to 2050 in the STEPS case. In the most aggressive case, NZE, those fuels vanish sometime in the 2030s.
Around the world, the Electric Power industry invested slightly more than $1 trillion in all aspects of its business last year. About half of that went to solar and wind, and one-third to transmission & distribution (T&D) assets. Looking forward to 2035, across all three scenarios, the IEA sees sharply increased annual investments, specifically a jump in T&D spending.
"After 2030," the report said, "the level of investment in almost all low-emissions sources of electricity stabilizes or falls back slightly because so much has already been done to decarbonize power supply by this time, especially in advanced economies. However, the level of investment in grids and batteries increases to facilitate their crucial role in the increasing levels of electrification of the end-uses. In the STEPS, investment in grids nearly doubles by 2050 from its current level, while investment in batteries increases 4.6-times. In the APS (case), investment in grids is 2.4-times higher than today, and investment in batteries is five-times higher."
IEA Executive director Fatih Birol commented, "In the second half of this decade, the prospect of more ample--or even surplus--supplies of oil and natural gas, depending on how geopolitical tensions evolve, ... implies downward pressure on prices, providing some relief for consumers that have been hit hard by price spikes. The breathing space from fuel price pressures can provide policymakers with room to focus on stepping up investments in clean energy transitions and removing inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. This means government policies and consumer choices will have huge consequences for the future of the energy sector and for tackling climate change."
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
