Released July 11, 2024 | SUGAR LAND
en
Written by Paul Wiseman for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--A last-minute strategy assembled by the left to reduce competition and consolidate its vote has apparently thwarted the expected rightward surge in the second round of French elections.
After the right-leaning National Rally (NR) led by Marine Le Pen had seen surprising success in last week's first round of parliamentary voting, left and center groups--Prime Minister Emmanual Macron's Ensemble Alliance and the New Popular Front, formed just in the week between the two votes--decided to withdraw hundreds of third-place finishers from the first election, in order to funnel more votes to candidates with a chance of outpolling NR.
The strategy, known as the "republican front" worked, although no single group came close to getting the 289 seats needed to form a government on its own.
Current tallies put the New Popular Front on top with 182, Macron's party with 163 and Le Pen's National Rally with 143. Other right-leaning groups won 68 seats.
In light of the NPF surge, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal had tendered his resignation, according to CNN sources, but Macron has asked him to remain for now, to maintain some continuity until a new government can be formed.
One of the NR's top campaign issues was immigration reform and reduction, ideas to which this vote would seem to have evidenced strong opposition.
What Now?
While the center and left are generally happy with the result, which saw record turnout not recorded since 1981, they are far from being in agreement on their goals. The leading party in NPF's four-party alliance is France Unbowed (LFI), which is led by a militant, radically left-leaning Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Its main tenet is that traditional parties and politics are not working and radical change is necessary.
Other NPF members include: the Socialist Party (PS), the party of previous leader Francois Mitterrand along with François Hollande; the French Green party (LE_EELV); and the French Communist party.
Achieving a consensus among those four may be challenging enough, but getting them to agree with Macron's existing policies may be even harder.
The NPF will likely be strongly influenced by Mélenchon's platform, which looks to reverse several Macron changes. It would reverse Macron's pension actions by returning the retirement age to 60, from Macron's 64, raise wages for public sector workers, cut taxes for low-income workers and raise taxes on the wealthy. Also on its agenda are a higher minimum wage; price caps on foods, electricity, natural gas and gasoline; and legislating for carbon neutrality by 2050.
On foreign policy it would demand a cease fire in Gaza and recognize Palestine, along with opposing Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
But this alliance was tried in 2022 but collapsed for two main reasons: inability to agree on policies, and the demands (and abrasive personality) of Mélenchon. While previously promising to be less vocal this time around, instead he has reportedly demanded that, even in a coalition government, his party's plans must be implemented without compromise.
What This Means for Energy
The only thing certain is that the National Rally's proposed rollbacks of some existing energy transition policies are off the table. While the NPF generally agrees on the need for battling climate change, the speed and spending rates aimed at achieving that goal will be up for debate--after some agreement is reached on forming a government at all.
Development decisions in any energy sector--fossil or green--may be put on hold while investors wait to see which parties may rule, and how they iron out their wide differences in many areas, including energy policies.
Other recent elections, in India and South Africa, also reduced the ruling party's dominance, but both left their respective parties with enough clout to lead the formation of any new alliance without requiring major changes in policies. The French elections have mostly left the waters muddied and roiled.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).
After the right-leaning National Rally (NR) led by Marine Le Pen had seen surprising success in last week's first round of parliamentary voting, left and center groups--Prime Minister Emmanual Macron's Ensemble Alliance and the New Popular Front, formed just in the week between the two votes--decided to withdraw hundreds of third-place finishers from the first election, in order to funnel more votes to candidates with a chance of outpolling NR.
The strategy, known as the "republican front" worked, although no single group came close to getting the 289 seats needed to form a government on its own.
Current tallies put the New Popular Front on top with 182, Macron's party with 163 and Le Pen's National Rally with 143. Other right-leaning groups won 68 seats.
In light of the NPF surge, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal had tendered his resignation, according to CNN sources, but Macron has asked him to remain for now, to maintain some continuity until a new government can be formed.
One of the NR's top campaign issues was immigration reform and reduction, ideas to which this vote would seem to have evidenced strong opposition.
What Now?
While the center and left are generally happy with the result, which saw record turnout not recorded since 1981, they are far from being in agreement on their goals. The leading party in NPF's four-party alliance is France Unbowed (LFI), which is led by a militant, radically left-leaning Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Its main tenet is that traditional parties and politics are not working and radical change is necessary.
Other NPF members include: the Socialist Party (PS), the party of previous leader Francois Mitterrand along with François Hollande; the French Green party (LE_EELV); and the French Communist party.
Achieving a consensus among those four may be challenging enough, but getting them to agree with Macron's existing policies may be even harder.
The NPF will likely be strongly influenced by Mélenchon's platform, which looks to reverse several Macron changes. It would reverse Macron's pension actions by returning the retirement age to 60, from Macron's 64, raise wages for public sector workers, cut taxes for low-income workers and raise taxes on the wealthy. Also on its agenda are a higher minimum wage; price caps on foods, electricity, natural gas and gasoline; and legislating for carbon neutrality by 2050.
On foreign policy it would demand a cease fire in Gaza and recognize Palestine, along with opposing Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
But this alliance was tried in 2022 but collapsed for two main reasons: inability to agree on policies, and the demands (and abrasive personality) of Mélenchon. While previously promising to be less vocal this time around, instead he has reportedly demanded that, even in a coalition government, his party's plans must be implemented without compromise.
What This Means for Energy
The only thing certain is that the National Rally's proposed rollbacks of some existing energy transition policies are off the table. While the NPF generally agrees on the need for battling climate change, the speed and spending rates aimed at achieving that goal will be up for debate--after some agreement is reached on forming a government at all.
Development decisions in any energy sector--fossil or green--may be put on hold while investors wait to see which parties may rule, and how they iron out their wide differences in many areas, including energy policies.
Other recent elections, in India and South Africa, also reduced the ruling party's dominance, but both left their respective parties with enough clout to lead the formation of any new alliance without requiring major changes in policies. The French elections have mostly left the waters muddied and roiled.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).
