IIR's November 20 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Oil Prices Forecast: Futures Rally as OPEC+ Weighs Deeper Supply Cuts		Brent, WTI crude oil futures gain on OPEC+ cut prospects, deeper cut predictions, and weaker U.S. Dollar impacts. This rise is primarily attributed to the anticipation of OPEC+ potentially intensifying supply cuts. The measure aims to stabilize prices, which have experienced a four-week decline, partly due to the reduced concerns over Middle East supply disruptions amidst the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. WTI prices could approach $80 a barrel if OPEC+ confirms deeper cuts. However, a fall below $72 could prompt the U.S. to replenish its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, potentially impacting prices. Global Factors Influencing the Market - The U.S. Dollar's decline to a two-month low has further implications for the oil market, as a weaker dollar typically boosts demand for dollar-denominated commodities like crude oil. Additionally, geopolitical factors, including the recent sanctions on Russian crude oil trade and the evolving situation in the Middle East, coupled with the increase in U.S. oil and gas rigs, as reported by Baker Hughes, are key elements shaping the near-term outlook of the oil market.	FXEmpire	U.S. Rig Count, Britain Offshore Wind Auction: Your Daily Energy News
The White House Does Not Expect Arab States to Weaponize Oil		The United States is confident that the Arab states will not use oil supply as a weapon as they have done in the past, White House energy security adviser Amos Hochstein told the Financial Times in an interview published this weekend. "Oil has been weaponised from time to time since it became a traded commodity, so we're always worried about that, working against that, but I think so far it hasn't," Hochstein told FT. According to the Biden Administration's top energy adviser, the U.S. and the global oil market are managing the double geopolitical jeopardy of the past year - the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war - "fairly well." "We have two active wars in the world, one involving the world's third-largest producer [Russia], the other in the Middle East where missiles are flying near where oil is produced, and yet prices are near the lower point of the year," Hochstein told FT. Last week, Hochstein said that the United States would tighten sanctions on Iran's oil industry amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, aiming to bring Iranian exports down by more than 1 million bpd.	OilPrice	ExxonMobil Starts Production at Payara Oil Field in Guyana
Natural Gas Price Forecast - Is Winter Canceled?		Natural gas has fallen again during the trading session early on Monday, as traders seem to ignore the seasonal pressures that are going to be coming soon. Natural Gas Technical Analysis - Natural gas markets have fallen a bit during the trading session on Monday again, as traders are ignoring the weather component, and starting to worry about the idea that a recession is going to destroy demand for energy. While that may or may not be the case, it's probably worth noting that crude oil has turned around a bit, and it does suggest that perhaps there is some type of hope for the energy markets. It is only a matter of time before we get more bullish pressure later this winter, as the European Union is going to have a struggle finding natural gas, and then of course we have to worry about the idea that there are several other factors such as pipelines that are not supplying natural gas to the continent of Europe. The natural gas markets will have to worry about whether demand picks up and of course, if the recessionary headwinds aren't as bad as the market is trying to price in at the moment; that could provide a huge rip higher as well. I still look for a move to the $4.00 level by the end of the winter, if not the $5.00 level.	FXEmpire	EIA: North American LNG Exports to Double Through 2027
U.S. and China Reach New Climate Agreement		China and the U.S. agreed to new greenhouse gas reduction commitments ahead of upcoming climate talks, but the relationship between the world's top two emitters remains "challenging." China, the world's largest climate polluter, has agreed in a deal with the United States to reduce planet-warming emissions from the power sector this decade and committed for the first time to curb all greenhouse gases. The statement announcing the deal issued by special climate envoy John Kerry and his Chinese counterpart Xie Zhenhua comes just before nations meet for the United Nations climate talks in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, which begin November 30	Scientific American	U.S. Small Modular Reactor Movement Suffers Setback with Project Cancellation
Who wants what out of COP28		Our scorecard of what the most powerful factions of countries will be fighting over at the climate summit--and the obstacles they face. The annual U.N. climate summits have drawn criticism for having grown unwieldy since they started in 1995, thronging with corporate lobbyists and marked more by non-binding pledges and squabbles over grammar than their ability to deliver change. But they have a real-world impact, sending signals to markets about governments' coming policies and reflecting real-world trends. And supporters are quick to point out that they remain the one forum where everyone--from the world's richest countries to its smallest and most marginal--has a say. This summit marks eight years since countries landed the Paris Agreement, which sets targets for curbing planetary warming. Countries will now be asked to respond to assessments--known collectively as the "global stocktake"--showing that they've failed to do as promised. They'll also try to flesh out the pledge they made at last year's summit in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt: the creation of a new fund to pay developing nations for the losses they're suffering from climate change.	Politico	Texas' 'Golden Triangle' Home to Billions in Projects Under Construction
Week 11/13/23 - 11/20/23		Welcome to the topsy-turvy week of Thanks-Be-Giving Stateside, where many express what they are grateful for in these tumultuous times. As obviously a humanitarian crisis has befallen Gaza but nation states are grateful this war has not escalated to engulf the Middle East. And similar gratitude is expressed for the war in Eastern Europe as Ukraine continues to stymie Russian aggression thanks to Western world's support. Also, as we prepare for COP28, some are grateful that the U.S. & China have come together in a new climate agreement. Will the World be grateful in witnessing a major policy shift come out of COP28; now that the world superpowers have found common ground? Others are grateful that though 2023 was to be a "Year the World was to be in a Recession," this has not yet come to pass. And, many in the Northern Hemisphere--especially Europe--are grateful that El Nino hints at an upcoming mild winter.
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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