Released October 01, 2024 | SUGAR LAND
en
Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst." That's the mantra of Jack Reacher, the hero in Lee Child's long-running series of mystery-action novels.
That might be the best way to characterize the evolving global sentiment about global warming. The unified optimism triggered by the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015 seems to have been overtaken by pessimism.
Climate pessimists believe it's too late to stop the worst ravages of global warming, so the world needs to pivot and find ways to adapt to a warmer world, with all the changes--known and unknown--that may bring. Despite the massive global investments in renewable electric generation made by companies and governments in recent years, too many companies and nations simply waited too long to make strategic decisions about energy production and use. In short, time has run out.
Climate optimists, on the other hand, say there still is time to prevent the worst ravages of global warming, which scientists have said include rising sea levels threatening coastal communities; more frequent instances of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, and floods; disruptions to ecosystems and biodiversity loss; food insecurity due to declining agricultural yields; increased spread of diseases; massive displacement of people; and significant damage to infrastructure.
In the climate pessimist camp is pioneering climate scientist James Hansen, who identified global warming in congressional testimony in the 1980s. Last November, he said limiting global temperature gain to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the goal of the Paris Agreement, was "deader than a doornail. ... Anybody who understands the physics knows that." He said the scientific community was responsible for "not making clear to the political leaders what the situation is."
But not everyone who understands the physics of global warming agrees with Hansen. "I've got three degrees in physics, and I can tell you that Jim is wrong," Michael Mann, a leading climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania, said in referring to Hansen. The problem isn't physics, it's politics, he told CNN, and "political obstacles can be overcome."
One of the heftiest voices in the climate optimist camp is billionaire Bill Gates, former leader of Microsoft and currently an investor in a next-generation nuclear project in Wyoming. For more on that project, see July 8, 2024, article - Ground is Broken on First-of-its-Kind $4 Billion Natrium Nuclear Plant. In an interview this past summer, Gates said he was "optimistic" about the world's ability to limit emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and contain or even reverse global warming, a 180-degree shift from the pessimism he felt in 2015, when the Paris Agreement was being negotiated.
In between are numerous shades of opinion.
The optimist vs. pessimist debate is playing out against the backdrop of a steadily warming planet. The world recorded its hottest average annual temperature in 2023, and may be on a path to surpass that in 2024. In a number of recent months, global average temperature gain has exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the Industrial Revolution, but the Paris Agreement sought to limit average long-term global temperature gain, over a 20-to-30-year period, to 1.5 degrees C.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (Geneva, Switzerland), global temperature gain in 2023 was about 1.45 degrees Celsius over the Industrial Revolution. Other scientific organizations, such as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) (Washington, D.C.) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (Washington, D.C.), have a slightly lower gain: about 1.36 degrees Celsius over the Industrial Revolution.
In a potentially telling shift with strategic and rhetorical implications, the International Energy Agency (IEA) (Paris, France) in a recent report dropped its prior semi-optimistic language, that the world could avoid the worst ravages of global warming, but the "window is closing." Keeping that window open was still possible, IEA said as recently as early this year, but it required a coordinated series of massive strategic moves to be rapidly implemented. For more on that, see January 15, 2024, article - Will the World Cook or Decarbonize? Ask China, Says IEA.
Last year, the IEA claimed the clean energy transition was "unstoppable." For more on that, see October 25, 2023, article - Is Clean Energy Transition Really 'Unstoppable,' as IEA Asserts? In a separate 2023 report, the agency highlighted "breakthrough opportunities" to reduce CO2 emissions in various industries, including power, steel and cement.
But in a report released last week, "From Taking Stock to Taking Action," the IEA used more downbeat language: Now, it spoke about steps that would "help give the world a fighting chance of meeting the Paris Agreement's temperature goals."
The IEA report said a tripling of renewable electric generation and a doubling of energy efficiency by 2030, combined with supportive government policies, could keep the world on track for Net Zero by 2050. The tripling of renewables sought by the agency comes after years of significantly higher investment in non-emitting electric generation, and significant government subsidies for electric vehicles (EVs) and electrification of buildings.
To be on track for realizing the Net Zero by 2050 ambitions of COP28, the world will need to increase the installed generating capacity of renewables, from slightly more than 3,000 megawatts (MW) in 2022 to nearly 13,000 MW by 2030, the IEA report estimated. Dramatic gains in energy efficiency and sharp cuts in fossil fuel use also are needed by 2030 in order to get the world on a path to achieve the Net Zero by 2050 goals of COP28.
Click on the image at right to see an IEA snapshot of select global energy goals under two scenarios.
Fully achieving the goals of COP28 will require about 1,300,000 MW of battery energy storage and soaring levels of grid investments, the report noted.
Click on the image at right to see the strategic changes needed by 2030 in the electric power industry to achieve the Net Zero by 2050 goals of COP28.
That looks to be a huge lift, particularly after trillions of dollars have been poured into renewable electric generation in the years since the Paris Agreements. Tellingly, the IEA now speaks of achieving "partial" climate goals set out in COP28, convened last year in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). "COP28" is shorthand for the 28th annual meeting of the Congress of the Parties to the Paris Agreement, which was signed by nearly 200 nations in 2016.
The IEA described the COP28 Partial Implementation Case as a series of uncoordinated actions that could achieve a global tripling of installed capacity of renewables and a doubling of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, "but without the necessary supporting measures--including investment in grids and storage--to allow this additional capacity to displace fossil fuels in electricity systems to the full extent possible."
"Where the COP28 goals are not well quantified," IEA wrote, "the COP28 Partial Implementation Case assumes a slower and less comprehensive adoption of clean energy technologies than in the COP28 Full Implementation Case. In road transport, the sales of battery electric cars and heavy-duty trucks, although accelerated compared to current trends, are about one-quarter lower than in the COP28 Full Implementation Case."
Other recent analyses from consultants such as McKinsey & Company (New York, New York) and a weeklong series of events, workshops, protests and networking activities that took place September 22-29 in New York under the heading of "Climate Week NYC," seek to shape the discussions for the next annual U.N. global warming summit, in Baku, Azerbaijan, in mid-November.
Climate Week NYC was expected to draw up to 100,000 people, some portion of whom chose to travel to New York because that was faster, easier and cheaper compared to traveling to Azerbaijan. The New York event drew investors, celebrities, political and corporate leaders, and climate scientists and activists. There were more than 600 events, including workshops, panel discussions and protests over the weeklong event plus countless receptions and private networking meetings. By convening in New York, people hoped to shape the agenda at COP29 in November.
COP28's signature accomplishment was getting world leaders to agree that global use of fossil fuels was beginning to end. The goal of the upcoming COP29 is to fully finance that transition, by and large through wealthier Global North countries contributing $100 billion annually to fund transition in the less-wealthy Global South. For more on that pledge, which remains unfulfilled, see November 17, 2021, article - COP26 Roundup: Fast, Binding, High-Impact Action on Climate was Elusive.
The shifting tenor of the global warming debate, from climate optimism to climate pessimism, suffused a report last month from McKinsey & Company, "Global Energy Perspective 2024." That report, rather than focusing on steps to limit global climate warming, instead offered eight reasons why steps to limit emissions have not proven to be effective. "Our analysis of the data shows global emissions to 2050 remaining above a 1.5º pathway, even if all countries deliver on current commitments," the report said.
In explaining why efforts to fight global warming have not succeeded to date, the consulting firm listed eight main reasons, including:
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
That might be the best way to characterize the evolving global sentiment about global warming. The unified optimism triggered by the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015 seems to have been overtaken by pessimism.
Climate pessimists believe it's too late to stop the worst ravages of global warming, so the world needs to pivot and find ways to adapt to a warmer world, with all the changes--known and unknown--that may bring. Despite the massive global investments in renewable electric generation made by companies and governments in recent years, too many companies and nations simply waited too long to make strategic decisions about energy production and use. In short, time has run out.
Climate optimists, on the other hand, say there still is time to prevent the worst ravages of global warming, which scientists have said include rising sea levels threatening coastal communities; more frequent instances of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, and floods; disruptions to ecosystems and biodiversity loss; food insecurity due to declining agricultural yields; increased spread of diseases; massive displacement of people; and significant damage to infrastructure.
In the climate pessimist camp is pioneering climate scientist James Hansen, who identified global warming in congressional testimony in the 1980s. Last November, he said limiting global temperature gain to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the goal of the Paris Agreement, was "deader than a doornail. ... Anybody who understands the physics knows that." He said the scientific community was responsible for "not making clear to the political leaders what the situation is."
But not everyone who understands the physics of global warming agrees with Hansen. "I've got three degrees in physics, and I can tell you that Jim is wrong," Michael Mann, a leading climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania, said in referring to Hansen. The problem isn't physics, it's politics, he told CNN, and "political obstacles can be overcome."
One of the heftiest voices in the climate optimist camp is billionaire Bill Gates, former leader of Microsoft and currently an investor in a next-generation nuclear project in Wyoming. For more on that project, see July 8, 2024, article - Ground is Broken on First-of-its-Kind $4 Billion Natrium Nuclear Plant. In an interview this past summer, Gates said he was "optimistic" about the world's ability to limit emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and contain or even reverse global warming, a 180-degree shift from the pessimism he felt in 2015, when the Paris Agreement was being negotiated.
In between are numerous shades of opinion.
The optimist vs. pessimist debate is playing out against the backdrop of a steadily warming planet. The world recorded its hottest average annual temperature in 2023, and may be on a path to surpass that in 2024. In a number of recent months, global average temperature gain has exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the Industrial Revolution, but the Paris Agreement sought to limit average long-term global temperature gain, over a 20-to-30-year period, to 1.5 degrees C.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (Geneva, Switzerland), global temperature gain in 2023 was about 1.45 degrees Celsius over the Industrial Revolution. Other scientific organizations, such as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) (Washington, D.C.) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (Washington, D.C.), have a slightly lower gain: about 1.36 degrees Celsius over the Industrial Revolution.
In a potentially telling shift with strategic and rhetorical implications, the International Energy Agency (IEA) (Paris, France) in a recent report dropped its prior semi-optimistic language, that the world could avoid the worst ravages of global warming, but the "window is closing." Keeping that window open was still possible, IEA said as recently as early this year, but it required a coordinated series of massive strategic moves to be rapidly implemented. For more on that, see January 15, 2024, article - Will the World Cook or Decarbonize? Ask China, Says IEA.
Last year, the IEA claimed the clean energy transition was "unstoppable." For more on that, see October 25, 2023, article - Is Clean Energy Transition Really 'Unstoppable,' as IEA Asserts? In a separate 2023 report, the agency highlighted "breakthrough opportunities" to reduce CO2 emissions in various industries, including power, steel and cement.
But in a report released last week, "From Taking Stock to Taking Action," the IEA used more downbeat language: Now, it spoke about steps that would "help give the world a fighting chance of meeting the Paris Agreement's temperature goals."
The IEA report said a tripling of renewable electric generation and a doubling of energy efficiency by 2030, combined with supportive government policies, could keep the world on track for Net Zero by 2050. The tripling of renewables sought by the agency comes after years of significantly higher investment in non-emitting electric generation, and significant government subsidies for electric vehicles (EVs) and electrification of buildings.
To be on track for realizing the Net Zero by 2050 ambitions of COP28, the world will need to increase the installed generating capacity of renewables, from slightly more than 3,000 megawatts (MW) in 2022 to nearly 13,000 MW by 2030, the IEA report estimated. Dramatic gains in energy efficiency and sharp cuts in fossil fuel use also are needed by 2030 in order to get the world on a path to achieve the Net Zero by 2050 goals of COP28.
Fully achieving the goals of COP28 will require about 1,300,000 MW of battery energy storage and soaring levels of grid investments, the report noted.
That looks to be a huge lift, particularly after trillions of dollars have been poured into renewable electric generation in the years since the Paris Agreements. Tellingly, the IEA now speaks of achieving "partial" climate goals set out in COP28, convened last year in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). "COP28" is shorthand for the 28th annual meeting of the Congress of the Parties to the Paris Agreement, which was signed by nearly 200 nations in 2016.
The IEA described the COP28 Partial Implementation Case as a series of uncoordinated actions that could achieve a global tripling of installed capacity of renewables and a doubling of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, "but without the necessary supporting measures--including investment in grids and storage--to allow this additional capacity to displace fossil fuels in electricity systems to the full extent possible."
"Where the COP28 goals are not well quantified," IEA wrote, "the COP28 Partial Implementation Case assumes a slower and less comprehensive adoption of clean energy technologies than in the COP28 Full Implementation Case. In road transport, the sales of battery electric cars and heavy-duty trucks, although accelerated compared to current trends, are about one-quarter lower than in the COP28 Full Implementation Case."
Other recent analyses from consultants such as McKinsey & Company (New York, New York) and a weeklong series of events, workshops, protests and networking activities that took place September 22-29 in New York under the heading of "Climate Week NYC," seek to shape the discussions for the next annual U.N. global warming summit, in Baku, Azerbaijan, in mid-November.
Climate Week NYC was expected to draw up to 100,000 people, some portion of whom chose to travel to New York because that was faster, easier and cheaper compared to traveling to Azerbaijan. The New York event drew investors, celebrities, political and corporate leaders, and climate scientists and activists. There were more than 600 events, including workshops, panel discussions and protests over the weeklong event plus countless receptions and private networking meetings. By convening in New York, people hoped to shape the agenda at COP29 in November.
COP28's signature accomplishment was getting world leaders to agree that global use of fossil fuels was beginning to end. The goal of the upcoming COP29 is to fully finance that transition, by and large through wealthier Global North countries contributing $100 billion annually to fund transition in the less-wealthy Global South. For more on that pledge, which remains unfulfilled, see November 17, 2021, article - COP26 Roundup: Fast, Binding, High-Impact Action on Climate was Elusive.
The shifting tenor of the global warming debate, from climate optimism to climate pessimism, suffused a report last month from McKinsey & Company, "Global Energy Perspective 2024." That report, rather than focusing on steps to limit global climate warming, instead offered eight reasons why steps to limit emissions have not proven to be effective. "Our analysis of the data shows global emissions to 2050 remaining above a 1.5º pathway, even if all countries deliver on current commitments," the report said.
In explaining why efforts to fight global warming have not succeeded to date, the consulting firm listed eight main reasons, including:
- Despite policy innovations, increasing global consensus, and growing private-sector commitments, emissions are not declining at the rate required
- Energy demand is projected to grow by up to 18% through 2050
- Fossil fuel demand continues, with a previously anticipated peak in the late 2020s, is now turning into a decade-spanning plateau
- Low-carbon energy sources are set to grow, but not currently fast enough to meet net-zero goals due to business-case viability and other challenges
- Nuclear could play a significant role in the transition, but faces headwinds in policy and public sentiment
- The global cost of carbon is too low to be compatible with faster transition scenarios
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
