Is the Time of Mass Transit Finally Upon Us in the United States?

Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--With oil reaching record-high prices almost daily, consumers are watching the price at the pump inch ever closer to $4 per gallon. While the outcry has really not been overwhelming, many analysts are predicting $200-per-barrel oil prices in the near future, which could easily lead to $6 per gallon prices at the pump. Despite the nearly worthless proposals by certain presidential hopefuls to have oil companies pay the gas tax and thus help consumers -- a plan that would provide almost no relief and is obviously just a political ploy -- gas prices are going to continue to climb. Since relief is not going to come at the pump, perhaps now is the time to consider mass transit alternatives.

Click on the image at right to view Future Light, Commuter, & Freight Rail Project Spending Analysis Chart.

Light and commuter rail have been around in the United States, in one form or another, for decades and has been a backbone of transportation for many areas of the country. The New York City subways are well known countrywide, as is the "L" in Chicago. Denver, Houston, Dallas, Salt Lake City, and Phoenix are all cities that now have developed mass transit options, either in the form of light rail systems or commuter rail, within the last 20 years. The question now is whether mass transit will begin to really take off as gas prices continue to climb.

In Europe, high gas prices are not a new thing. Most cities in Europe pay twice if not three times the price per gallon that consumers see in the U.S. However, one major difference in Europe is that it has a much better developed mass transit infrastructure that not only serves individual cities, but efficient train systems that run between cities and countries to allow for more efficient business and family travel.

The problem in the U.S. is that inter-city travel by way of mass transit has not been a hugely popular solution to transit issues. Most would rather take flights or use an automobile to make a long trip. In recent years, commuter and light rail has become increasingly popular as an alternative to driving, and more and more mass-transit-related projects are being proposed across the country. However, for the most part, these projects have only dealt with congestion problems within a specific city, not travel between cities.

With oil prices continuing to rise, it would be wise for states and the federal government to begin to develop more interstate mass transit options. While passenger train service does currently exist, it is only through a single entity and has struggled over the years to remain competitive. For the U.S. to provide more efficient mass transit options, now is the time for a closer look at the numerous transit corridors that have been proposed nationwide and to step up development of these alternatives.

Congestion and environmental relief are the main forces that are driving the current mass transit initiatives that have been proposed in the U.S. Rising oil prices will possibly provide added impetus for governmental agencies to dust off more interstate transit plans and re-evaluate their viability. However, this will take a massive infusion of capital to achieve. Rail projects are not cheap to develop and also take several years to go from concept to reality.

Currently, Industrial Info is tracking more than $100 billion in commuter, light and freight rail project activity that is scheduled to begin construction either during the summer of 2008 or beyond. However, the vast majority of these projects are city-based projects that will alleviate the problems within their target city or county and not really address the pending issues that the public will face in the years to come as oil prices make it more cost-prohibitive to fly or drive to a destination.

To date, the West and East coasts are the areas of the country that are most heavily involved with the development of mass transit alternatives. New York City, Boston, Washington D.C., as well as the states of New Jersey, Pennsylvania and California are years ahead of the rest of the country in terms of passenger rail infrastructure. The balance of the nation needs to take stock of where they stand in the passenger rail arena, what their potential needs will be as oil prices continue to rise and what it will take to achieve those goals.

Make no mistake, the cost of developing a functional passenger rail infrastructure that runs from Maine to California, from Michigan to Texas, will be enormously expensive and time consuming. But, in the end it would be worth the developmental and construction costs and the public will be grateful, especially when gas prices in the U.S. start to reach, or even exceed, those of Europe. It will also take a monumental effort on the part of this country's leadership to develop a construction, payment and implementation plan that is both feasible and effective. But you can almost guarantee that when gas prices show that they are not going to retreat to the levels we here in the U.S. took for granted in the not-so-distant past, the public will be clamoring for an alternative to driving or flying. So, wake up, Washington. It's best to get on this option now and have a solution in place rather then be behind the 8-ball when the clamor does begin as it surely will.

Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is a marketing information service specializing in industrial process, energy and financial related markets with products and services ranging from industry news, analytics, forecasting, plant and project databases, as well as multimedia services.