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Released November 19, 2018 | SUGAR LAND
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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Canadian Solar Incorporated (NASDAQ:CSIQ) (Guelph, Ontario) is dimming its outlook for revenues this year, following a challenging third quarter that saw China, one of its top customers, pare its incentives for solar projects. Still, growing demand in the U.S. for solar and other forms of renewable energy is giving the company a domestic boost. Industrial Info is tracking nearly $7 billion in active projects involving Canadian Solar, including $3.3 billion worth in the U.S.

AttachmentClick on the image at right for a graph detailing the top countries for active Canadian Solar projects.

Last month, Canadian Solar subsidiary Recurrent Energy signed a 15-year power purchase agreement with Austin Energy (Austin, Texas) for the proposed, $185 million East Blackland Solar Farm in Pflugerville, Texas. The facility is designed to generate 120 megawatts (MW) from 80,000 to 90,000 polycrystalline photovoltaic (PV) modules, and is currently expected to be in service in early 2020. For more information, see Industrial Info's project report.

Another major U.S. project for Canadian Solar has faced delays: the estimated $500 million Lemoore Naval Station Solar project in Kings County, California. The solar farm, positioned on a 3,000-acre, federally owned site, would generate 195 MW from PV modules. When it was announced in late 2016, the project was expected to be the largest on Department of Defense land, with the ability to power more than 23,000 homes, with the generated power to be sold to regional customers, according to California newspaper The Sentinel.

Originally set to begin construction in 2017, it will not kick off until the first quarter of next year, at the earliest. Still, Industrial Info assesses the project as having a medium probability (70-80%) of moving forward as currently planned. But the odds may be lower for a proposed, $292.5 million second phase for the Lemoore plant, which would double output to 390 MW. For more information, see Industrial Info's project reports for Phase I and Phase II.

Canadian Solar also is considering the proposed, multi-phase RE Maplewood PV Solar Plant in Fort Stockton, Texas, which would generate a total of 500 MW after 18 months of construction. All plans are in their early planning stages, where plenty of factors could alter, delay or cancel projected spending, but Industrial Info rates each phase has having a medium probability of beginning construction as planned:
  • $200 million Phase A, which would kick off in third-quarter 2019; see project report
  • $400 million Phase B, which would kick off in first-quarter 2020; see project report
  • $200 million Phase C, which would kick off in first-quarter 2020; see project report
  • $200 million Phase D, which would kick off in second-quarter 2020; see project report
Texas Star Alliance (Austin, Texas) is serving as consultant on the Maplewood project.

China Hints at Further Solar Market Growth
China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), Ministry of Finance and National Energy Board said in May that it would halt all subsidies for utility-scale solar projects in favor of competitive bidding, and greatly reducing feed-in-tariffs, according to Forbes. This move likely will reduce demand in the world's largest solar market by about 40%.

"Our module shipment volume was reduced compared to third-quarter 2017, reflecting the demand flat in China's market," said Shawn Qu, the chief executive officer of Canadian Solar, in a quarterly earnings-related conference call. "Pricing has been impacted. However, we have managed to reduce raw material cost, achieve greater supply chain and manufacturing efficiency, which gave Canadian Solar a cost-leader edge."

Qu later acknowledged: "For our module and system solutions business, the average selling price of solar modules declined in the third quarter, compared with the second quarter, primarily due to China's May 31 solar incentive policy change."

Nonetheless, Canadian Solar, along with many other top players in the global solar industry, received some good news earlier this month when PV Magazine reported that China might elevate its target of 105 gigawatts (GW) of cumulative installed PV power to between 210 and 270 GW, as the original goal, which was planned to be reached by the end of the decade, already has been surpassed by more than 50%.

Canadian Solar is at work on more than $2.1 billion in active projects in China, including the estimated $431.7 million Dafeng Photovoltaic Solar Module Factory in Dafeng City, Jiangsu. The facility is expected to manufacture about 3 GW per year of high-efficiency solar modules. For more information, see Industrial Info's project report.

Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle™, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn. For more information on our coverage, send inquiries to info@industrialinfo.com or visit us online at http://www.industrialinfo.com/.
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