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Released January 10, 2022 | SUGAR LAND
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Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--The turn of the calendar year has not slowed the rush to build new renewable electric-generation capacity in the U.S., according to multiple sources.
Industrial Info is tracking 2,348 renewable-generation projects scheduled to be brought online between November 2021 and October 2024. The total investment value (TIV) of those projects is $275 billion, according to IIR's Global Marketing Intelligence (GMI) platform. These numbers refer to all types of proposed renewable generation, including solar, wind, hydro and others.
That compares to the most recent estimate from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) (Washington, D.C.), which said about 3,714 units of new-build renewable-generation capacity totaling approximately 258,000 megawatts (MW) are scheduled to begin operations in the U.S. between November 2021 and October 2024. This number reflects all projects scheduled to begin operations between November 2021 and October 2024, without any screening for probability.
In that list, solar power was the leading type of renewable generation expected to come online during that three-year period, with about 171,000 MW, followed by wind (72,000 MW), hydro (14,520 MW), geothermal steam (213 MW) and biomass (151 MW).
But when FERC narrowed that list to "high probability" projects (defined as a project that has been permitted, has prepared a site, has undergone testing or begun construction), that sum fell to about 77,000 MW, consisting of:
According to IIR's GMI platform, approximately 45,636 MW worth of renewable energy projects have a "high" probability (defined as 81%-99%) of being brought online between November 2021 and October 2024. The TIV of these high-probability projects is about $65.8 billion.
The December 2021 Short-Term Energy Outlook, prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), estimated that 17,200 MW of new wind power came online in the U.S. in 2021, and another 7,100 MW will begin operations in 2022. As for utility-scale solar power, the STEO said about 16,200 MW of new generation capacity was brought online in the U.S. last year, and another 20,900 MW is anticipated to begin operations this year.
"Any way you slice it, the rush to renewables remains vibrant," said Britt Burt, IIR's vice president of research for the Global Power Industry. "It certainly shows no sign of slowing down. It may even be speeding up."
The looming expiration of federal tax credits typically accelerates renewable energy construction starts, he noted. The Production Tax Credit (PTC) for wind projects expired December 31, 2021, meaning developers had to start construction by that date to be eligible to receive the credit. For solar projects, the federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC) is in the process of ramping down. Solar projects installed in 2020-22 are eligible for a 26% tax credit, while projects installed in 2023 will receive a 23% credit. The tax credit expires at the end of 2023, unless Congress renews it.
As part of the Biden administration's effort to fight climate change, its "Build Back Better Act," currently stalled in Congress, includes a provision to extend the PTC and ITC for projects that begin construction by December 31, 2026, though the framework for the credits would change.
"Federal tax credits have been an important source of support for renewable energy for years, and that remains the case," said Burt. "However, a growing number of proposed projects are competitive without the federal subsidies, according to the latest analysis from Lazard." For more on that, see November 16, 2021, article - Lazard Study Shows Flattening of Cost Reductions for Renewable Generation.
Burt also noted that other important sources of support driving the growth of renewable generation have been state laws and regulatory policies, continuing efficiency improvements in the renewable energy systems themselves and renewable energy's popularity with homeowners and businesses. The supply-chain breakdowns stemming from COVID-19 are expected to slow the growth of renewables and increase the per-MW installed cost of systems, though it is not clear those forces would lead to a fundamental reorientation away from renewable energy.
Among high-probability projects tracked by the IIR GMI platform, the Southwest, Rocky Mountains and Great Lakes regions have the largest dollar-value of renewable energy projects scheduled to come online between November 2021 and October 2024.
Click on the image at right to see a chart of which market regions have the largest dollar value of renewable energy projects scheduled to begin operations between November 2021 and October 2024.
The states with the greatest value of renewable project activity over that timespan are Texas, California, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and Oklahoma.
Click on the image at right to see the states with the highest dollar value of renewable power projects with a scheduled in-service date between November 2021 and October 2024.
On a capacity basis, solar power accounts for about 32,179 MW, or 71%, of "high probability" projects scheduled to begin operations in the U.S. between November 2021 and October 2024. These "high-probability" solar projects are expected to draw about 69% of overall project investment, or about $45 billion, according to IIR's GMI platform.
U.S. "high-probability" wind projects to be brought online by October 2024, on the other hand, are expected to total about 13,425 MW. The TIV of those projects is about $19.5 billion.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn.
Industrial Info is tracking 2,348 renewable-generation projects scheduled to be brought online between November 2021 and October 2024. The total investment value (TIV) of those projects is $275 billion, according to IIR's Global Marketing Intelligence (GMI) platform. These numbers refer to all types of proposed renewable generation, including solar, wind, hydro and others.
That compares to the most recent estimate from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) (Washington, D.C.), which said about 3,714 units of new-build renewable-generation capacity totaling approximately 258,000 megawatts (MW) are scheduled to begin operations in the U.S. between November 2021 and October 2024. This number reflects all projects scheduled to begin operations between November 2021 and October 2024, without any screening for probability.
In that list, solar power was the leading type of renewable generation expected to come online during that three-year period, with about 171,000 MW, followed by wind (72,000 MW), hydro (14,520 MW), geothermal steam (213 MW) and biomass (151 MW).
But when FERC narrowed that list to "high probability" projects (defined as a project that has been permitted, has prepared a site, has undergone testing or begun construction), that sum fell to about 77,000 MW, consisting of:
- Solar (52,692 MW)
- Wind (23,180 MW)
- Hydro (798 MW)
- Biomass (133), and
- Geothermal (58 MW)
According to IIR's GMI platform, approximately 45,636 MW worth of renewable energy projects have a "high" probability (defined as 81%-99%) of being brought online between November 2021 and October 2024. The TIV of these high-probability projects is about $65.8 billion.
The December 2021 Short-Term Energy Outlook, prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), estimated that 17,200 MW of new wind power came online in the U.S. in 2021, and another 7,100 MW will begin operations in 2022. As for utility-scale solar power, the STEO said about 16,200 MW of new generation capacity was brought online in the U.S. last year, and another 20,900 MW is anticipated to begin operations this year.
"Any way you slice it, the rush to renewables remains vibrant," said Britt Burt, IIR's vice president of research for the Global Power Industry. "It certainly shows no sign of slowing down. It may even be speeding up."
The looming expiration of federal tax credits typically accelerates renewable energy construction starts, he noted. The Production Tax Credit (PTC) for wind projects expired December 31, 2021, meaning developers had to start construction by that date to be eligible to receive the credit. For solar projects, the federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC) is in the process of ramping down. Solar projects installed in 2020-22 are eligible for a 26% tax credit, while projects installed in 2023 will receive a 23% credit. The tax credit expires at the end of 2023, unless Congress renews it.
As part of the Biden administration's effort to fight climate change, its "Build Back Better Act," currently stalled in Congress, includes a provision to extend the PTC and ITC for projects that begin construction by December 31, 2026, though the framework for the credits would change.
"Federal tax credits have been an important source of support for renewable energy for years, and that remains the case," said Burt. "However, a growing number of proposed projects are competitive without the federal subsidies, according to the latest analysis from Lazard." For more on that, see November 16, 2021, article - Lazard Study Shows Flattening of Cost Reductions for Renewable Generation.
Burt also noted that other important sources of support driving the growth of renewable generation have been state laws and regulatory policies, continuing efficiency improvements in the renewable energy systems themselves and renewable energy's popularity with homeowners and businesses. The supply-chain breakdowns stemming from COVID-19 are expected to slow the growth of renewables and increase the per-MW installed cost of systems, though it is not clear those forces would lead to a fundamental reorientation away from renewable energy.
Among high-probability projects tracked by the IIR GMI platform, the Southwest, Rocky Mountains and Great Lakes regions have the largest dollar-value of renewable energy projects scheduled to come online between November 2021 and October 2024.
Click on the image at right to see a chart of which market regions have the largest dollar value of renewable energy projects scheduled to begin operations between November 2021 and October 2024. The states with the greatest value of renewable project activity over that timespan are Texas, California, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and Oklahoma.
Click on the image at right to see the states with the highest dollar value of renewable power projects with a scheduled in-service date between November 2021 and October 2024.On a capacity basis, solar power accounts for about 32,179 MW, or 71%, of "high probability" projects scheduled to begin operations in the U.S. between November 2021 and October 2024. These "high-probability" solar projects are expected to draw about 69% of overall project investment, or about $45 billion, according to IIR's GMI platform.
U.S. "high-probability" wind projects to be brought online by October 2024, on the other hand, are expected to total about 13,425 MW. The TIV of those projects is about $19.5 billion.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn.
