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IIR's February 6 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News
Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies
Released Monday, February 06, 2023
| Event | MarCon* | IIR Comment | Outlet | IIR News |
| Russia and China to drive the price of oil in coming week |  |
The readjustment in global energy markets that comes as a result of Western pressure on Russia along with China's growing appetite should be the main factors to watch this week in crude oil, analysts said. Convening only briefly, OPEC last week opted to stand pat on production quotas, while central banks started to ease back on aggressive rate hikes designed to dampen consumer inflation. While the former may be seen as something of a wait-and-see approach on the economy, the latter suggests that inflation is cooling off and interest rates are close to, if not at, their peak. |
Houston Chronicle | Bears, Bulls Argue Over China's Effect on 2023's Oil Markets |
| Oil prices edge higher as IEA's Birol talks up China demand outlook |  |
Oil prices inched up in early trade on Monday after falling around 8% last week to more than three-week lows as jitters over major economies outweighed signs of a demand recovery in China, the world's top oil importer. Last Friday, WTI and Brent slid 3% after strong U.S. jobs data raised concerns that the Federal Reserve would keep raising interest rates, which in turn boosted the dollar. While recession fears dominated the market last week, on Sunday International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol highlighted that China's recovery remains a key driver for oil prices. The IEA expects half of global oil demand growth this year will come from China, where Birol said jet fuel demand was surging. |
FXEmpire | Less-Than-Severe Energy Crisis Gives Shale Oil a Breather |
| What Europe risks with wider sanctions on Russian oil | |
The campaign by western nations to defund the Kremlin and force President Vladimir Putin to abandon his war in Ukraine has reached a delicate phase. On Feb. 5, the European Union joined the U.K. and the U.S. in banning seaborne imports of Russian diesel and other oil products. The measure, coupled with a price cap on Russian fuel exports, is designed to blow a sizable hole in Moscow's energy revenues. The flip side: If European buyers are unable to find alternative supplies, the sanctions will heap new costs on diesel-reliant industries such as farming and road haulage and make it harder for governments to rein in inflation. | Washington Post | World Wonders About Crude Oil and Product Supply |
| The next few days may reveal whether investors have been riding one big suckers rally, says this strategist. |  |
Stocks are off to a weaker start as caution grips investors following Friday's monster jobs beat. While subject to revisions, that 517,000 surge in U.S. jobs may have shredded hopes among some that the Fed will be done with rate hikes sooner rather than later. "Half a million jobs, climb down off the wall, call the recession off. This isn't a soft-landing, the economy is still flying high," says Chris Rupkey, chief economist at fwd: bonds, a research company. Add the jobs numbers to a long list of things that don't make sense right now, says Matt Maley, Miller Tabak + Co.'s chief market strategist. "After the action in the stock market this past week, you'd think that this earnings season has been great...and that the Fed has declared that they're definitely going to cut rates soon...AND institute another QE program. However, none of these things took place. In the end, the fundamentals still matter, so be careful," Maley told clients. |
MarketWatch | Texas Oil Patch Job Prospects Are Merry and Bright |
| Goldman Sachs Warns Of An Imminent Oil Supply Shortage | |
Crude oil could soon swing into a deficit that will make next year a difficult one, Goldman Sachs said, as spare production capacity dwindles and underinvestment threatens future supply. Speaking on the sidelines of an event in Saudi Arabia, Goldman's top commodity analyst Jeffrey Currie said, as quoted by Bloomberg, that the industry is not spending enough to secure future production and that spare capacity globally is declining. This could tip the oil market into a serious supply problem next year, but the price for a barrel of Brent could top $100 before then. |
OilPrice | Bulls or Bears? Oil Price Volatility May Be Only Certainty |
| Turkey oil pipelines undamaged, flows continue after quake |  |
There is no damage to the Kerkuk-Ceyhan pipeline carrying oil from Iraq to Turkey, or to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, and oil flows are continuing on both after a major earthquake hit Turkey, an energy official told Reuters on Monday. However, operations at the Ceyhan oil terminal in southern Turkey were suspended, the Tribeca shipping agency said, adding that an emergency meeting was being held on the issue. |
Reuters | Korea Electric Power Aims for Four-Reactor Deal in Turkey |
| Week 01/30/23 - 02/06/23 |  |
A Market Freakout - Well, those eyes which were on the financial markets got an eyefull last week. Enough to begin a freak out after the jobs number was posted last week. Why? Because the Fed might not be done raising rates. And, if the Fed isn't, what does that mean for World Central Banks fiscal policy? Is there going to be a soft landing? Or is a more tumultuous landing in the proverbial cards? Is the quake in Turkey a harbinger of things yet to come? There are rumblings from many corners of the world that there is a significant supply crunch coming, and not just out of Russia for their crude & products because of Western imposed sanctions... | ||
| *MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR. | ||||
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