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Released November 21, 2025 | SUGAR LAND
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Written by Amir Richani for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)
The price increase is the result of the U.S. dollar weakness, changes by the U.S. Federal Reserve, lower-than-expected copper supply, and geopolitical tensions.
Copper supply impacts for this and next year is constrained partly, by the accidents at El Teniente (ID 1080317) and Grasberg (ID 3006765) mines. The El Teniente Mine in Chile suffered a collapse in one of its sections on July 31 that led to the death of six workers and shut down operations for days. Parts of the mine remain shut.
Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Metals & Minerals Plant Database can read detailed profiles of the El Teniente and Grasberg mines.
Meanwhile, the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the world's second-largest copper mine, has seen operations impacted since September 8 when a landslide killed several workers. On November 18, the company announced plans to restore large-scale production at the asset. The unaffected Deep Mill Level Zone and Big Gossan mines begun operations in late October, while the Grasberg Block Cave underground mine is preparing for a phased restart and ramp-up beginning in the second quarter of 2026.
Other operational setbacks raised by Cochilco included Kamoa-Kakula Mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Quebrada Blanca Mine in Chile, and Highland Valley Mine in Canada.
Subscribers can read detailed profiles of the Kamoa-Kakula, Quebrada Blanca and Highland Valley mines.
Meanwhile, companies such as Teck, Codelco, Anglo American, and Antofagasta Minerals have reduced their copper guidance projections amid operational setbacks, further impacting supply.
Cochilco also mentions a deficit in copper concentrate supply as another key reason behind the copper price increase.
Refined copper output, however, are expected at 27.63 MT this year, a 2.4% year-over-year increase, while in 2026 they will be up by 1.4% to 28.01 MT.
However, copper demand will remain below supply this year at 27.58 MT, while next year there will be a deficit of 165,000 tons, with demand set at 28.18 MT. China is expected to be the world's largest consumer of copper, with 15.86 MT and 16.18 MT this year and next, respectively, followed by Europe with 3.69 MT and 3.75 MT.
Chile is forecasted to remain the largest copper producer this year with an output of 5.51 MT based on Cochilco's forecast, while the Democratic Republic of Congo will snatch the top two position from Peru with volumes of 3.25 MT in 2025.
Key Takeaways
About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).
Summary
Setbacks in copper production across several mines and a weak U.S. dollar are driving up copper prices for this year and next, with an average price of US$4.45 per pound in 2025 and US$4.55 per pound in 2026.Weak Dollar Means Pricey Copper
Cochilco, the Chilean mining authority, has raised its copper price forecast for this year and next. Initially expected at US$4.3 per pound in 2025 and 2026, Cochilco now expects its copper price for 2025 to be US$4.45 per pound and for 2026 to be US$4.55 per pound.The price increase is the result of the U.S. dollar weakness, changes by the U.S. Federal Reserve, lower-than-expected copper supply, and geopolitical tensions.
Copper supply impacts for this and next year is constrained partly, by the accidents at El Teniente (ID 1080317) and Grasberg (ID 3006765) mines. The El Teniente Mine in Chile suffered a collapse in one of its sections on July 31 that led to the death of six workers and shut down operations for days. Parts of the mine remain shut.
Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Metals & Minerals Plant Database can read detailed profiles of the El Teniente and Grasberg mines.
Meanwhile, the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the world's second-largest copper mine, has seen operations impacted since September 8 when a landslide killed several workers. On November 18, the company announced plans to restore large-scale production at the asset. The unaffected Deep Mill Level Zone and Big Gossan mines begun operations in late October, while the Grasberg Block Cave underground mine is preparing for a phased restart and ramp-up beginning in the second quarter of 2026.
Other operational setbacks raised by Cochilco included Kamoa-Kakula Mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Quebrada Blanca Mine in Chile, and Highland Valley Mine in Canada.
Subscribers can read detailed profiles of the Kamoa-Kakula, Quebrada Blanca and Highland Valley mines.
Meanwhile, companies such as Teck, Codelco, Anglo American, and Antofagasta Minerals have reduced their copper guidance projections amid operational setbacks, further impacting supply.
Cochilco also mentions a deficit in copper concentrate supply as another key reason behind the copper price increase.
Global copper production
Based on Cochilco's calculations, copper mine production for this year is expected at 22.89 million tons (MT), comprised of 4.51 MT of cathodes SxEw and 18.38 MT of concentrate. For next year, copper mine production is forecasted at 23.79 MT, a 3.9% increase.Refined copper output, however, are expected at 27.63 MT this year, a 2.4% year-over-year increase, while in 2026 they will be up by 1.4% to 28.01 MT.
However, copper demand will remain below supply this year at 27.58 MT, while next year there will be a deficit of 165,000 tons, with demand set at 28.18 MT. China is expected to be the world's largest consumer of copper, with 15.86 MT and 16.18 MT this year and next, respectively, followed by Europe with 3.69 MT and 3.75 MT.
Chile is forecasted to remain the largest copper producer this year with an output of 5.51 MT based on Cochilco's forecast, while the Democratic Republic of Congo will snatch the top two position from Peru with volumes of 3.25 MT in 2025.
Key Takeaways
- Cochilco expects its copper price for 2025 to be US$4.45 per pound and for 2026 to be US$4.55 per pound.
- Incidents at El Teniente and Grasberg mines, as well as copper guidance changes, are driving the price up.
- Copper mine production for this year is expected to be 22.9 million tons, while refined copper production is set at 27.6 million tons.
About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).
