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Released February 13, 2025 | SUGAR LAND
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Written by Paul Wiseman for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Written by Paul Wiseman for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Petroleum giant BP (NYSE:BP) (London, England) has announced that it intends to sell its 140,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) Gelsenkirchen Scholven Refinery and its 120,000-bpd Horst Refinery, both located in Germany, according to IIR data. It had previously announced its intention to permanently close the 70,000-bpd crude distillation unit and a 40,000-bpd vacuum distillation unit at the Scholven Refinery. Whether the refinery sales will cause BP to reconsider the distillation unit closings remains to be seen.
As noted by IIR's Senior Director, Energy Market Intelligence Hillary Stevenson, this is part of a larger trend across Europe. IIR data counts 12 refineries that have closed since 2020, including two slated for shuttering by the end of 2025, totaling just more than 1 million bpd of refining capacity. Two are slated for conversion to alternative fuel production, while three will remain utilized as terminals.
Click on the image at right for a list of the 12, with capacities and closing dates.
Locations for these refineries include a wide swath of Europe including France, United Kingdom, Norway, Belgium, Bulgaria, Scotland, and others, along with the German facilities facing sale or closure.
IIR's Energy Market Strategist Geoffrey S. Lakings adds, "As the EuroZone pivots more toward energy-related Eco Parks producing biofuels such as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), green-generated methanol and hydrogen, renewable diesel and others, traditional refineries are either having to adapt or close due to falling demand of gasoline and other petroleum distillates."
Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Refining Plant Database can read detailed profiles of the Scholven and Horst refineries.
China, Too
A November 5, 2024, story in this space has already counted 165,000 bpd of refining capacity that is expected to be shuttered in China by the end of 2025. For personal vehicles that nation has begun a significant more toward electric vehicles (EVs), and for commercial trucks they are moving toward liquefied natural gas and other alternative fuels.
This Chinese checking of demand is part of a sea change moving India to number one in the world in demand growth, although they're still a long way from the top in overall demand. U.S. exports to China are dropping--and with potential tariffs dangling in the wind, there could be additional downward pressure on those numbers in the coming weeks.
World EV Growth
Worldwide, EV sales did increase 21% in 2024, according to Forbes, while gasoline vehicle sales dropped for the seventh straight year. In the U.S., EVs accounted for 8% of vehicle sales in 2024, and is expected to reach 10% this year.
Peak Demand?
What do these refinery closures say about the world reaching the long-predicted but ever-elusive peak oil demand?
IIR's Lakings points out that the International Energy Agency (IEA) "is among the few prognosticators prominently discussing the concept of 'peak oil demand,' predicting that it will occur sometime before 2030, due primarily to the increasing adoption of EVs and renewable sources. However, others such as Goldman Sachs and OPEC have longer timelines for peak oil's advent."
And, as with most market predictions, there is more than one force affecting oil and gas. Lakings explains that worldwide inflation is raising the cost of almost every consumer item, leaving less money for energy demand in the world's gross domestic product (GDP). "This reduced budget for oil and gas is why OPEC+ continues to hold barrels on the sideline, keeping the market from becoming oversupplied." He also sees the new administration's harsher sanctions on Russia and Iran, and possibly Venezuela, which could further reduce the market supply of crude oil, as creating further turmoil in the market.
Demand Rises in 2025
The IEA predicts global oil demand will rise by 1.05 million bpd in 2025, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)'s expectations are slightly higher, at 1.3 million bpd. As per Lakings' reference, Goldman Sachs looks for oil demand to keep rising for another 10 years, at least.
Deloitte is seeing Brent Crude prices between $70 and $80 per barrel in 2025, and the EIA comes in about the middle of that at $74. With demand slightly rising and prices remaining steady, peak demand would indeed seem to be years away.
IIR will continue to monitor refinery capacity changes around the globe.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).
As noted by IIR's Senior Director, Energy Market Intelligence Hillary Stevenson, this is part of a larger trend across Europe. IIR data counts 12 refineries that have closed since 2020, including two slated for shuttering by the end of 2025, totaling just more than 1 million bpd of refining capacity. Two are slated for conversion to alternative fuel production, while three will remain utilized as terminals.
Locations for these refineries include a wide swath of Europe including France, United Kingdom, Norway, Belgium, Bulgaria, Scotland, and others, along with the German facilities facing sale or closure.
IIR's Energy Market Strategist Geoffrey S. Lakings adds, "As the EuroZone pivots more toward energy-related Eco Parks producing biofuels such as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), green-generated methanol and hydrogen, renewable diesel and others, traditional refineries are either having to adapt or close due to falling demand of gasoline and other petroleum distillates."
Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Refining Plant Database can read detailed profiles of the Scholven and Horst refineries.
China, Too
A November 5, 2024, story in this space has already counted 165,000 bpd of refining capacity that is expected to be shuttered in China by the end of 2025. For personal vehicles that nation has begun a significant more toward electric vehicles (EVs), and for commercial trucks they are moving toward liquefied natural gas and other alternative fuels.
This Chinese checking of demand is part of a sea change moving India to number one in the world in demand growth, although they're still a long way from the top in overall demand. U.S. exports to China are dropping--and with potential tariffs dangling in the wind, there could be additional downward pressure on those numbers in the coming weeks.
World EV Growth
Worldwide, EV sales did increase 21% in 2024, according to Forbes, while gasoline vehicle sales dropped for the seventh straight year. In the U.S., EVs accounted for 8% of vehicle sales in 2024, and is expected to reach 10% this year.
Peak Demand?
What do these refinery closures say about the world reaching the long-predicted but ever-elusive peak oil demand?
IIR's Lakings points out that the International Energy Agency (IEA) "is among the few prognosticators prominently discussing the concept of 'peak oil demand,' predicting that it will occur sometime before 2030, due primarily to the increasing adoption of EVs and renewable sources. However, others such as Goldman Sachs and OPEC have longer timelines for peak oil's advent."
And, as with most market predictions, there is more than one force affecting oil and gas. Lakings explains that worldwide inflation is raising the cost of almost every consumer item, leaving less money for energy demand in the world's gross domestic product (GDP). "This reduced budget for oil and gas is why OPEC+ continues to hold barrels on the sideline, keeping the market from becoming oversupplied." He also sees the new administration's harsher sanctions on Russia and Iran, and possibly Venezuela, which could further reduce the market supply of crude oil, as creating further turmoil in the market.
Demand Rises in 2025
The IEA predicts global oil demand will rise by 1.05 million bpd in 2025, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)'s expectations are slightly higher, at 1.3 million bpd. As per Lakings' reference, Goldman Sachs looks for oil demand to keep rising for another 10 years, at least.
Deloitte is seeing Brent Crude prices between $70 and $80 per barrel in 2025, and the EIA comes in about the middle of that at $74. With demand slightly rising and prices remaining steady, peak demand would indeed seem to be years away.
IIR will continue to monitor refinery capacity changes around the globe.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).
