BP Outlook: Shale Gas to Meet Nearly Half of Global Gas Demand Growth by 2035

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Written by Richard Finlayson, Senior International Editor for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Shale-gas supplies are expected to meet 46% of the global gas demand growth and account for 21% of world gas production by 2035, according to the "BP Energy Outlook 2035" report.

Shale gas is expected to account for 68% of all U.S. gas production by 2035. North American shale-gas production growth is expected to slow after 2020, and production from other regions is expected to increase, but North America is still expected to account for 71% of world shale-gas production by 2035, according to the outlook.

Oil is expected to see the slowest growth of the major fuels, with demand growing at an average of only 0.8% annually. But demand for oil and other liquid fuels is projected to be nearly 19 million barrels per day higher in 2035 than in 2012.

Almost all demand growth will come from China, India and the Middle East.

Growth in oil supplies and other liquids (including biofuels) during the next 20 years is expected mainly to come from the Americas and the Middle East. More than half the growth will come from non-OPEC sources, with rising production from U.S. tight oil and Canadian oil sands.

Brazilian deepwater and biofuels will more than offset mature declines elsewhere. Increasing production from new tight-oil resources is expected to result in the U.S. overtaking Saudi Arabia to become the world's largest producer of liquids in 2014. U.S. oil imports are expected to fall nearly 75% between 2012 and 2035.

The outlook forecasts energy consumption rising 41% from 2012 to 2035. This compares to 55% during the last 23 years. Emerging economies are expected to provide 95% of the growth in demand, while energy use in the advanced economies of North America, Europe and Asia is expected to grow very slowly, and will begin to decline in the later years of the forecast period.

BP plc (NYSE:BP) (London, England) Chief Executive Bob Dudley gave a resounding "yes" when asked whether there is enough energy to meet demand.

The global demand growth rate is slower than what has been seen in previous decades, largely as a result in increasing energy efficiency, and new forms of energy accounting for a significant part of the global supply in the future.

For related information, see October 23, 2013, article - IEA: U.S. May Halve Energy Imports with Greater Efficiency, but Faces Hurdles

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