Brazil's Transportation Sector Energy Demand Could Reach 836 Million Barrels in 2035

Written by Amir Richani for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Brazil is expected to consume 836 barrels of oil equivalent in transportation energy demand by 2035. Diesel will account for the largest share of fuel, followed by gasoline. Land transportation will dominate the sector requiring 93% of the total energy.

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Brazil's Transportation Energy Demand

Brazil's Energy Research Office (EPE) and the Ministry of Energy and Mines have published the "Energy Demand Chain of the Transportation Sector of the Decenal Energy Expansion Plan 2035."

As part of this, EPE forecasts that transportation energy demand will grow from 709 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2024 to 836 million barrels in 2035. In a decade from now, 93% of Brazil's transportation sector demand will be driven by land vehicles, followed by aviation at 3.6% and rail at 1.8%.

In terms of growth, between 2023 and 2035, road transport energy demand will increase annually by 1.6%, air transport by 3.6%, waterway transport by 2.5%, and rail transport by 3.9%.

To meet that demand, diesel and biodiesel will account for a share of roughly 50.4% in 2035, growing gradually from 2023 to 2035 at a pace of 1.9% per year. Following diesel, the next most demanded fuel in 2035 will be gasoline with 25.9%, and then hydrated ethanol with 15%.

Gasoline, unlike other fuels, will see its demand decrease from 240.4 million barrels in 2024 to 217 million barrels in 2035. Lower gasoline consumption in light cars results from higher vehicle efficiency, public transport, electrification, and the use of hydrated ethanol as an alternative fuel.

EPE's projections forecast hydrated ethanol, used in gasoline blending, demand growth of 5.3% annually between 2023 and 2035.

Ethanol is used in Brazil as an alternative fuel. The government also mandates a 30% ethanol blend in gasoline, with the last upgrade taking effect on August 1, 2025.

Unlike ethanol produced in the United States, which comes mainly from corn, most Brazilian ethanol is made from sugar cane. However, corn ethanol has also helped meet local demand in recent years.

Last year, the South American nation produced 233 million barrels of ethanol, about 4.2% more than in 2023, according to the National Agency of Oil, Natural Gas, and Biofuels (ANP).
,br> The biggest surge in energy demand will come from electricity, which is projected to grow by 14.3% annually between 2023 and 2035. However, it will account for only 0.8% of demand by 2035.

Fuel Production

According to ANP, from January to November this year, Brazil produced 253 million barrels of diesel (S10 and S500), accounting for 48.8% of the national production. In second place, closely behind is gasoline with 173 million barrels, about 33.4% of the total.

The Paulinia refinery accounted for about 20.2% of the crude processed in Brazil from January to November, followed by the Mataripe refinery with 13.4% and the Duque de Caxias refinery with 10.8%.

Key Takeaways

• Brazil's transportation energy demand could reach 836 million barrels in 2035.
• Road transport will account for most of the demand with 93%.
• Unlike other fuels, gasoline will see its demand drop due to more use of ethanol, electrification, and vehicle efficiency.

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