Released December 03, 2025 | SUGAR LAND
en
Written by Daniel Graeber for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)
The Canadian Association of Energy Contractors (CAOEC) published a forecast for 2026 activity, showing that drilling activity is on pace for an increase. By next year, CAOEC expects to see 5,709 new wells drilled across the country, which would be a 2.9% increase from this year should the forecast prove accurate.
"These aren't abstract figures," said Mark Scholz, the head of the CAOEC. "They're the heartbeat of Canada, the proof that our work isn't just about extracting resources -- it's about giving Canadians a hopeful future."
If forecasts are valid, the association believes there will be as many as 53,000 new jobs created in the energy sector next year. That comes as the Canadian economy falters under trade pressures exerted by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Based on data from the Bank of Canada, the unemployment rate in the nation is hovering at around 7.1%, compared to around 4.4% in the U.S. economy. Hiring and wage growth are weak.
Tiff Macklem, the bank's governor, told members of the Canadian Senate late last month that this was more than just a cyclical downturn for Canada.
"It is also a structural transition. The U.S. trade conflict has diminished Canada's economic prospects," he said. "The structural damage caused by tariffs is reducing our productive capacity and adding costs."
The U.S. economy is also a net importer of natural gas. Based on data from the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), 95% of the exported oil and 99% of the exported natural gas goes to the United States.
To address both national economic strains and the over-reliance on U.S. trade, Prime Minister Mark Carney has categorized a slate of projects as national priorities, from nuclear reactors to export terminals for liquefied natural gas.
Alberta's government said the new network would be an expansion to the existing Trans Mountain network and accommodate as much as 400,000 BBL/d. Expansion plans could run into opposition from West Coast communities and from the indigenous population, though the provincial government of Alberta said it could get on board so long as tanker bans remain in place for parts of the coast.
Lisa Baiton, the head of CAPP, picked up the prevailing Canadian mantra that projects like these could help establish the nation as an energy superpower.
"(Canadians) expect this to be done the Canadian way, with innovation, in partnership with Indigenous communities, and with respect for the environment," she said.
Key Takeaways
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Summary
An upstream trade group in Canada is expecting an uptick in rig activity next year, which would help the struggling economy and support efforts at trade diversification.More Rigs
As Canadian leaders mull their options for expanded energy trade outside of North America, a trade group said it expected a net increase in activity across the nation's upstream sector.The Canadian Association of Energy Contractors (CAOEC) published a forecast for 2026 activity, showing that drilling activity is on pace for an increase. By next year, CAOEC expects to see 5,709 new wells drilled across the country, which would be a 2.9% increase from this year should the forecast prove accurate.
"These aren't abstract figures," said Mark Scholz, the head of the CAOEC. "They're the heartbeat of Canada, the proof that our work isn't just about extracting resources -- it's about giving Canadians a hopeful future."
If forecasts are valid, the association believes there will be as many as 53,000 new jobs created in the energy sector next year. That comes as the Canadian economy falters under trade pressures exerted by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Based on data from the Bank of Canada, the unemployment rate in the nation is hovering at around 7.1%, compared to around 4.4% in the U.S. economy. Hiring and wage growth are weak.
Tiff Macklem, the bank's governor, told members of the Canadian Senate late last month that this was more than just a cyclical downturn for Canada.
"It is also a structural transition. The U.S. trade conflict has diminished Canada's economic prospects," he said. "The structural damage caused by tariffs is reducing our productive capacity and adding costs."
Over-Reliance on U.S. Trade
The U.S. economy receives 60% of its imported oil from Canada, or around 3.5 million barrels per day (BBL/d). Much of the U.S. refinery sector is tailored to run heavier slates of crude oil such as what's found in Canada, rather than the light, sweet shale-based oil at home.The U.S. economy is also a net importer of natural gas. Based on data from the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), 95% of the exported oil and 99% of the exported natural gas goes to the United States.
To address both national economic strains and the over-reliance on U.S. trade, Prime Minister Mark Carney has categorized a slate of projects as national priorities, from nuclear reactors to export terminals for liquefied natural gas.
Expanding Trans Mountain -- Again
A recent agreement with the provincial government of Alberta, meanwhile, outlines expansions to the existing Trans Mountain pipeline to British Columbia, the only Canadian artery that can deliver its crude oil outside of North America.Alberta's government said the new network would be an expansion to the existing Trans Mountain network and accommodate as much as 400,000 BBL/d. Expansion plans could run into opposition from West Coast communities and from the indigenous population, though the provincial government of Alberta said it could get on board so long as tanker bans remain in place for parts of the coast.
Lisa Baiton, the head of CAPP, picked up the prevailing Canadian mantra that projects like these could help establish the nation as an energy superpower.
"(Canadians) expect this to be done the Canadian way, with innovation, in partnership with Indigenous communities, and with respect for the environment," she said.
Key Takeaways
- Canada is expecting upstream gains in 2026.
- That supports a trade diversification effort.
- More jobs are expected in the troubled Canadian economy.
- 53,000: new jobs expected upstream
- 95% of Canada's exported oil goes to the U.S.
- 5,709: new wells expected next year
About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
