Dangerous Winter Storm Forecast to Impact at Least 75 Million People

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Written by Aaron Studwell, Ph.D., Energy Meteorologist & Analyst for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Winter Storm Fern is expected to impact nearly 700,000 square miles from the southern Plains to the Northeast, bringing dangerous Arctic cold, heavy snow and significant icing that could disrupt energy infrastructure, transportation and power systems into early next week.

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Overview

Winter Storm Fern is forecast to develop later this week, impacting almost 700,000 square miles from the Texas Panhandle to the Northeast. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is already highlighting the impending Arctic outbreak and the forecast storm to be the two dominant national hazards for the upcoming week.

An Arctic air mass is forecast to surge south Thursday, colliding with an increasingly active southern jet. Forecast guidance shows this pattern bringing a wide corridor of snow, ice and dangerous cold to the southern Plains on Friday. By Saturday, Fern's impacts will extend across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Carolinas, reaching southwestern Virginia by nightfall. On Sunday, the system is expected to overrun the mid-Atlantic with heavy snow potentially spreading across New England and New York by Monday, January 26.

Click on the image at right to view the Weather Prediction Center's map showing moderate winter impacts of the storm.

The looming Arctic air is a critical part of the storm cast. The strength and timing will establish the rain/wintry mix/snow line and impact the potential accumulation of both snow and ice. Subzero temperatures are likely in the Upper Midwest and wind chills may approach -50°F (-45°C) in some locations. By Thursday, extreme cold will blanket the Canadian prairies and north-central U.S. Over the weekend, bitterly cold air will expand across the Plains, Ohio Valley and toward the Gulf and East coasts.

Portions of the central and southern plains will reach 25 to 35°F below normal. Coastal regions of Texas and the Gulf Coast will experience sub-freezing morning lows on Sunday, January 25, and Monday, January 26. These temperatures will be 15 to 20°F below normal.

Click on the map at right for a Weather Prediction Center map showing expected winter chill levels across the U.S.

Regional Impacts

This magnitude of cold increases the risk of freezing rain and sleet along the southern edge of the snowfall. Sustained cold air aloft will also support higher snow-to-liquid ratios, increasing snowfall amounts along the zone of focused lift.

Major impacts are expected with the storm's footprint overlapping both energy infrastructure and densely populated corridors. About one-quarter of the U.S. population may be impacted by Winter Storm Fern between Thursday and next Monday.

On the southern side of Fern, a significant ice event, including freezing rain and sleet, is forecast. There will be a risk of dangerous travel conditions and extended power outages across portions of Texas and most of the Southeast. Recent forecast guidance shows an increasing chance of freezing rain as far south as Houston and Corpus Christi on Friday. The highest probabilities currently extend from portions of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, and across parts of the Carolinas. Current guidance shows localized totals approaching 2 inches of accumulating ice.

Through the zone of freezing rain, cold air advancing into the southern Plains will bring a dangerous weather transition. Precipitation is expected to start as a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain, then transition to accumulating snow. The particular focus of these impacts will include north Texas, including the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex and the ArkLaTex area on Friday.

Click on the image at right for a Winter Prediction Center map of the winter hazard outlook.

Finally, some areas will receive significant levels of snowfall. Recent forecast guidance shows heavy snow extending from the Texas Panhandle, across the Tennessee Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, and potentially impacting New England. Forecast temperatures in the teens and 20s will compound travel, power, and industry impacts.

The guidance continued to show a high level of variability in forecast snowfall levels, particularly along the Eastern Seaboard. From the Texas Panhandle to the Tennessee Valley, snowfall totals were expected to range from 7 to 11 inches. Isolated totals could approach 18 inches.

Across the East Coast, there was still both run-to-run and model-to-model variability for both track and accumulation. Guidance on Tuesday showed that the primary snow band would extend along the North Carolina/Virginia border. This band was expected to shift north into central and southern Virginia. This would increase snowfall totals for the mid-Atlantic and drop them across North Carolina. There was also a disconnect noted for accumulation totals. Snowfall totals were expected to range from 10 to 15 inches. Isolated totals could approach 20 inches.

Forecast Risk

Despite increasing confidence in a high-impact event, several forecast uncertainties remain. Small changes in the timing or depth of the Arctic air could shift the rain--ice--snow line by tens of miles, significantly altering local impacts. Likewise, modest changes in storm track or phasing could relocate the primary snow band, particularly along the East Coast, leading to large swings in snowfall totals.

Ice accretion forecasts carry additional risk, as slight temperature deviations can reduce freezing rain efficiency or introduce sleet, sharply lowering accretion. These sensitivities mean that while the overall threat is clear, precise placement of the most severe impacts will remain uncertain until closer to the event.

Energy Impacts

For the energy sector, the primary risks are a combination of weather-driven demand spikes, operational constraints and supply-side fragility. Arctic air will potentially result in natural gas freeze-offs across West Virginia and central Pennsylvania.

Natural gas freeze-offs happen when water and hydrates freeze in the gas stream, creating blockages in wellheads, pipelines and equipment. This occurrence disrupts supply, resulting in reduced production, significantly impacting homes and power grids. As seen over the past few days, natural gas price spikes and energy market volatility is observed.

In addition, the forecasted icing corridor may endure power transmission and distribution outages. Ice loading on power lines and trees, followed by wind stress, can create clustered failures. Typically, these are slow to restore, particularly when road conditions deteriorate. This combination will lengthen restoration times by reducing crew mobility and increasing safety constraints.

Key Takeaways

• This storm has the potential to be either bad or generationally bad.
• Winter Storm Fern may affect nearly one-quarter of the U.S. population across a broad, multi-day footprint.
• Arctic air will drive temperatures 25--35°F below normal in the Plains and Upper Midwest, with subzero readings and dangerous wind chills.
• A significant icing corridor is possible from central Texas into the Southeast, with localized ice accretion potentially approaching 2 inches.
• Heavy snowfall is likely from the Texas Panhandle through the Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic, with isolated totals exceeding 15 inches.
• Energy systems face heightened risk from freeze-offs, demand surges and prolonged power outages where ice and wind overlap.
• Forecast confidence is highest in widespread disruption, but lower in the exact placement of the heaviest snow and ice bands.

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About IIR News Intelligence
IIR News Intelligence is a trusted source of news for the industrial process and energy markets, powered by Industrial Info Resources' Global Market Intelligence (GMI).

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 Trillion (USD).