Released July 16, 2021 | SUGAR LAND
en
Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--This week, on the day before the International Energy Agency (IEA) (Paris, France) released its semi-annual Electricity Market Report, China reported second-quarter economic growth of 7.9%. Though down sharply from the torrid pace of 18.3% in the first quarter, economic growth in the world's second-largest economy creates a dilemma for the IEA and others seeking to reduce global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2). For all the hue and cry in advanced economies about decarbonizing, those economies take a back seat to China, India and other developing nations because much of that economic growth is being powered by coal.
Click on the image at right to see a graphic of electric power demand growth for China, India and Europe.
After falling by about 1% in 2020 due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, global electricity demand is set to grow by nearly 5% in 2021 and 4% in 2022, driven by the global economic recovery, said the IEA's Electricity Market Report, released July 15. The majority of the increase in electricity demand is expected to come from the Asia Pacific region, primarily China and India, the report added.
The report emphasizes that, despite electric demand declining in the U.S., U.K. and Spain, three representative advanced economies, raging demand growth in China's commercial and industrial sector more than offset negative demand growth in those three advanced economies.
On a global basis, fossil fuels will be used to meet approximately 45% of additional demand in 2021 and 40% in 2022, the report predicted. As a result, CO2 emissions from the electricity sector, which fell in both 2019 and 2020, are forecast to increase by 3.5% in 2021 and by 2.5% in 2022, which would take them to an all-time high.
Though renewable energy growth is projected to increase robustly this year and next, it will not outstrip worldwide electric demand growth. To the extent that nearly half of electric demand growth will be met by hydrocarbon-based electric generation, meeting the goal of a net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 gets progressively more difficult with each passing year.
In fact, the IEA report said, in only two years--2019 and 2020--has renewable energy grown faster, on a percentage basis, than overall electric demand. Those are years when worldwide electric demand grew only marginally or was negative. Thus, the report said, despite two positive years, it is not the new normal to say that renewable energy has grown faster than global electricity demand.
"Renewable power is growing impressively in many parts of the world, but it still isn't where it needs to be to put us on a path to reaching net-zero emissions by mid-century," said Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA's director of energy markets and security. "As the economy rebounds after the pandemic, we've seen a surge in electrical generation from fossil fuels. To shift to a sustainable trajectory, we need to massively step up investment in clean energy technologies--especially renewables and energy efficiency."
In an earlier report, Net-Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector, the IEA laid out a set of aggressive national policy and investment decisions needed to throttle back carbon emissions. For more on that, see May 24, 2021, article - IIR Energy Analysts Question Feasibility of IEA Roadmap to Net-Zero Emissions.
That net-zero report said nearly three-quarters of global emissions reductions between 2020 and 2025 must take place in the electricity sector. That works out to annual declines of more than 6% in coal-fired electricity. But the agency's prediction in its just-released Electricity Market Report that coal-fired electricity will rise by nearly 5% this year, and another 3% in 2022, potentially reaching an all-time high, works against achieving a net-zero by 2050 goal.
During the first quarter of 2021, coal's share of the electric fuel mix in the European Union returned to pre-pandemic levels, a result of lower output from nuclear and wind resources and rising gas prices, the report noted. However, the IEA feels this increase will be short-lived, as several European nations have closed their last coal generators and another country, Portugal, closed its largest coal-fired generator earlier this year.
For all of the gains advanced economies have made to decarbonize their electricity supply, China and India seem to be the place where the fight against global warming ultimately will be won or lost. And the signs are not good for those seeking to limit atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Coal accounts or about 75% of China's electric fuel mix for 2020 and the early months of 2021. India used coal to generate between 63% and 78% of its electricity over the last two and one-half years.
Click on the images at right to see graphics of China's and India's use of coal to generate electricity.
"Recent extreme weather events have threatened security of (electric) supply," the report noted. "The first half of 2021 saw supply shortfalls in multiple regions caused by extreme cold, heat and drought." As wildfires threaten transmission lines in the Western U.S., and early-summer power emergencies have been called in the West, East and Texas, the IEA report suggests this could be the new normal.
Industrial Info is pleased to announce its mid-year Industrial Market Outlook for North America, online and free for all attendees, beginning on Tuesday, July 20, until Thursday, July 22, starting at 10 a.m. CDT (11 a.m. EDT), and lasting for approximately one hour total each day. Join Industrial Info's global industry research managers as they share their thoughts and perspectives on the key industry trends and drivers, and how these are shaping the next 24 months' capital and maintenance project spending activity. Click here for more information or to sign up.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn.
Click on the image at right to see a graphic of electric power demand growth for China, India and Europe.After falling by about 1% in 2020 due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, global electricity demand is set to grow by nearly 5% in 2021 and 4% in 2022, driven by the global economic recovery, said the IEA's Electricity Market Report, released July 15. The majority of the increase in electricity demand is expected to come from the Asia Pacific region, primarily China and India, the report added.
The report emphasizes that, despite electric demand declining in the U.S., U.K. and Spain, three representative advanced economies, raging demand growth in China's commercial and industrial sector more than offset negative demand growth in those three advanced economies.
On a global basis, fossil fuels will be used to meet approximately 45% of additional demand in 2021 and 40% in 2022, the report predicted. As a result, CO2 emissions from the electricity sector, which fell in both 2019 and 2020, are forecast to increase by 3.5% in 2021 and by 2.5% in 2022, which would take them to an all-time high.
Though renewable energy growth is projected to increase robustly this year and next, it will not outstrip worldwide electric demand growth. To the extent that nearly half of electric demand growth will be met by hydrocarbon-based electric generation, meeting the goal of a net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 gets progressively more difficult with each passing year.
In fact, the IEA report said, in only two years--2019 and 2020--has renewable energy grown faster, on a percentage basis, than overall electric demand. Those are years when worldwide electric demand grew only marginally or was negative. Thus, the report said, despite two positive years, it is not the new normal to say that renewable energy has grown faster than global electricity demand.
"Renewable power is growing impressively in many parts of the world, but it still isn't where it needs to be to put us on a path to reaching net-zero emissions by mid-century," said Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA's director of energy markets and security. "As the economy rebounds after the pandemic, we've seen a surge in electrical generation from fossil fuels. To shift to a sustainable trajectory, we need to massively step up investment in clean energy technologies--especially renewables and energy efficiency."
In an earlier report, Net-Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector, the IEA laid out a set of aggressive national policy and investment decisions needed to throttle back carbon emissions. For more on that, see May 24, 2021, article - IIR Energy Analysts Question Feasibility of IEA Roadmap to Net-Zero Emissions.
That net-zero report said nearly three-quarters of global emissions reductions between 2020 and 2025 must take place in the electricity sector. That works out to annual declines of more than 6% in coal-fired electricity. But the agency's prediction in its just-released Electricity Market Report that coal-fired electricity will rise by nearly 5% this year, and another 3% in 2022, potentially reaching an all-time high, works against achieving a net-zero by 2050 goal.
During the first quarter of 2021, coal's share of the electric fuel mix in the European Union returned to pre-pandemic levels, a result of lower output from nuclear and wind resources and rising gas prices, the report noted. However, the IEA feels this increase will be short-lived, as several European nations have closed their last coal generators and another country, Portugal, closed its largest coal-fired generator earlier this year.
For all of the gains advanced economies have made to decarbonize their electricity supply, China and India seem to be the place where the fight against global warming ultimately will be won or lost. And the signs are not good for those seeking to limit atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Coal accounts or about 75% of China's electric fuel mix for 2020 and the early months of 2021. India used coal to generate between 63% and 78% of its electricity over the last two and one-half years.
Click on the images at right to see graphics of China's and India's use of coal to generate electricity. "Recent extreme weather events have threatened security of (electric) supply," the report noted. "The first half of 2021 saw supply shortfalls in multiple regions caused by extreme cold, heat and drought." As wildfires threaten transmission lines in the Western U.S., and early-summer power emergencies have been called in the West, East and Texas, the IEA report suggests this could be the new normal.
Industrial Info is pleased to announce its mid-year Industrial Market Outlook for North America, online and free for all attendees, beginning on Tuesday, July 20, until Thursday, July 22, starting at 10 a.m. CDT (11 a.m. EDT), and lasting for approximately one hour total each day. Join Industrial Info's global industry research managers as they share their thoughts and perspectives on the key industry trends and drivers, and how these are shaping the next 24 months' capital and maintenance project spending activity. Click here for more information or to sign up.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn.
