Released December 06, 2021 | SUGAR LAND
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Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--The world is on track to add a record amount of renewable energy in 2021, and over the 2021-2026 period, but it's still not nearly enough to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) (Paris, France).
Globally, renewable electric capacity additions are expected to reach about 290 gigawatts (GW) in 2021, surpassing the record set last year, the IEA wrote in its annual Renewables Market Report, released December 1. This comes despite rising costs for key materials used to make solar panels and wind turbines, the agency said.
By 2026, the report projected, global renewable electricity capacity is forecast to rise more than 60% from 2020 levels to more than 4,800 GW, which would be equivalent to the current total global power capacity of fossil fuels and nuclear combined. Renewables are set to account for almost 95% of the increase in global power capacity through 2026, with solar photovoltaic (PV) power alone providing more than half.
"This year's record renewable electricity additions of 290 GW are yet another sign that a new global energy economy is emerging," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. "The high commodity and energy prices we are seeing today pose new challenges for the renewable industry, but elevated fossil fuel prices also make renewables even more competitive."
The energy agency attributed some of the strong growth in renewable electricity to stronger support from government policies and more ambitious clean energy goals announced before and during the COP26 Climate Change Conference.
Although the IEA report noted that record growth for renewables is taking place despite today's high commodity and transport prices, if commodity prices remain high through the end of next year, it would wipe out years of cost reductions in wind and solar power.
"Rising commodity, energy and shipping prices have increased the cost of producing and transporting solar PV modules, wind turbines and biofuels worldwide," the report noted. "Since the beginning of 2020, prices for PV-grade polysilicon more than quadrupled, steel has increased by 50%, aluminum by 80%, copper by 60% and freight fees have risen six-fold. Compared with commodity prices in 2019, we estimate that investment costs for utility-scale solar PV and onshore wind are 25% higher. In addition, restrictive trade measures have brought additional price increases to solar PV modules and wind turbines in key markets such as the United States, India and the European Union."
The report presented three scenarios for renewable energy growth: main, accelerated and net zero by 2050.
Over the 2021-2026 period, about 300 GW of new renewable electric generating capacity is expected to begin operating each year around the world, the agency estimates in its "main" scenario. In the "accelerated" case, that number rises to nearly 400 GW per year. But to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, the agency's most aggressive scenario, annual renewable capacity additions have to average about 650 GW around the world.
Click on the image at right to see IEA's historical and future capacity additions on an annualized basis for three scenarios.
Solar photovoltaic is expected to account for the majority of renewable electric generation additions over the 2021-2026 period. Wind additions, both onshore and offshore, are expected to add about half of solar generation's additions over that time, the report projected.
Click on the image at right to see IEA's projections of how the different types of renewable energy will grow over the 2021-2026 period.
The world's biggest markets for renewable electricity -- defined as hydropower, wind and solar -- are China, the U.S., the European Union and India. By 2026, the IEA expects renewable electricity will account for 50% of the generation mix in the European Union and 40% in China. The U.S. and India are forecast to get about 30% of their electricity from renewable sources in 2026.
Click on the image at right to see the share of the generation mix that renewable electricity is expected to account for in 2026 in the world's largest renewables markets.
Despite projected strong renewable electricity growth over the 2021-2026 period in both the "main" and "accelerated" scenarios, the IEA said growth in those two cases is not anticipated to be fast enough to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. In fact, solar's projected growth in the "main" case, about 180 GW per year, must nearly double, to approximately 325 GW per year, to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, the IEA said. Wind capacity additions, which are projected at about 80 GW per year over the 2021-2026 period in the "main" case, must also double to roughly 175 GW per year over that period to achieve net-zero goals.
Click on the image at right to see IEA's historical and projected annual growth in renewable electricity in three scenarios.
The renewable energy report said governments need to remove four main barriers to accelerate renewables deployment and achieve net-zero. "For wind and solar PV projects in advanced economies, various challenges to permitting and grid integration have led to lower-than-planned capacity being awarded in government auctions," the report said. "In emerging and developing economies, stop-and-go policies, the lack of grid availability and risks concerning off-takers' financial health are hurting investor confidence, resulting in elevated financing rates. Lack of (financial support) and targeted policy support for flexibility are an issue in all (developed and developing) countries. In addition, challenges concerning social acceptance of wind and hydropower projects caused an increasing number of countries to delay or cancel planned projects."
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn.
Globally, renewable electric capacity additions are expected to reach about 290 gigawatts (GW) in 2021, surpassing the record set last year, the IEA wrote in its annual Renewables Market Report, released December 1. This comes despite rising costs for key materials used to make solar panels and wind turbines, the agency said.
By 2026, the report projected, global renewable electricity capacity is forecast to rise more than 60% from 2020 levels to more than 4,800 GW, which would be equivalent to the current total global power capacity of fossil fuels and nuclear combined. Renewables are set to account for almost 95% of the increase in global power capacity through 2026, with solar photovoltaic (PV) power alone providing more than half.
"This year's record renewable electricity additions of 290 GW are yet another sign that a new global energy economy is emerging," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. "The high commodity and energy prices we are seeing today pose new challenges for the renewable industry, but elevated fossil fuel prices also make renewables even more competitive."
The energy agency attributed some of the strong growth in renewable electricity to stronger support from government policies and more ambitious clean energy goals announced before and during the COP26 Climate Change Conference.
Although the IEA report noted that record growth for renewables is taking place despite today's high commodity and transport prices, if commodity prices remain high through the end of next year, it would wipe out years of cost reductions in wind and solar power.
"Rising commodity, energy and shipping prices have increased the cost of producing and transporting solar PV modules, wind turbines and biofuels worldwide," the report noted. "Since the beginning of 2020, prices for PV-grade polysilicon more than quadrupled, steel has increased by 50%, aluminum by 80%, copper by 60% and freight fees have risen six-fold. Compared with commodity prices in 2019, we estimate that investment costs for utility-scale solar PV and onshore wind are 25% higher. In addition, restrictive trade measures have brought additional price increases to solar PV modules and wind turbines in key markets such as the United States, India and the European Union."
The report presented three scenarios for renewable energy growth: main, accelerated and net zero by 2050.
Over the 2021-2026 period, about 300 GW of new renewable electric generating capacity is expected to begin operating each year around the world, the agency estimates in its "main" scenario. In the "accelerated" case, that number rises to nearly 400 GW per year. But to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, the agency's most aggressive scenario, annual renewable capacity additions have to average about 650 GW around the world.
Solar photovoltaic is expected to account for the majority of renewable electric generation additions over the 2021-2026 period. Wind additions, both onshore and offshore, are expected to add about half of solar generation's additions over that time, the report projected.
The world's biggest markets for renewable electricity -- defined as hydropower, wind and solar -- are China, the U.S., the European Union and India. By 2026, the IEA expects renewable electricity will account for 50% of the generation mix in the European Union and 40% in China. The U.S. and India are forecast to get about 30% of their electricity from renewable sources in 2026.
Despite projected strong renewable electricity growth over the 2021-2026 period in both the "main" and "accelerated" scenarios, the IEA said growth in those two cases is not anticipated to be fast enough to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. In fact, solar's projected growth in the "main" case, about 180 GW per year, must nearly double, to approximately 325 GW per year, to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, the IEA said. Wind capacity additions, which are projected at about 80 GW per year over the 2021-2026 period in the "main" case, must also double to roughly 175 GW per year over that period to achieve net-zero goals.
The renewable energy report said governments need to remove four main barriers to accelerate renewables deployment and achieve net-zero. "For wind and solar PV projects in advanced economies, various challenges to permitting and grid integration have led to lower-than-planned capacity being awarded in government auctions," the report said. "In emerging and developing economies, stop-and-go policies, the lack of grid availability and risks concerning off-takers' financial health are hurting investor confidence, resulting in elevated financing rates. Lack of (financial support) and targeted policy support for flexibility are an issue in all (developed and developing) countries. In addition, challenges concerning social acceptance of wind and hydropower projects caused an increasing number of countries to delay or cancel planned projects."
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn.
