IIR's November 3 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Can the Gaza ceasefire deal survive?		Summary: When violence persists amidst diplomacy, a "ceasefire" becomes a tense word game. US-backed truce efforts face collapse as Israeli strikes kill over 100, stretching the definition of peace. The deal's survival now hinges on intense White House pressure and the commitment of key mediators, Qatar and Egypt, to prevent a return to full war, leaving Gaza's future perpetually fragile.	BBC	Cheniere Energy, ExxonMobil, Xcel Energy: Your Daily Energy News
Russia has a new strategy for winter war in Ukraine		Summary: One must be aware that Russia is weaponizing winter in Ukraine, not just to freeze the nation but to destabilize Europe. The core danger is a new refugee wave caused by crippling strikes on Ukraine's energy grid, which could overwhelm strained European aid budgets and intensify existing war fatigue and public discontent over supporting refugees.	Aljazeera	First Quantum, Panama Government Positive About Future of Copper Mine
Oil prices steady despite OPEC+ plans to pause output increases		Oil prices were little changed despite news that OPEC+ plans to end its supply increases, with the market weighed down by fears of an oil supply glut and weak factory data in Asia. Brent and WTI both fell more than 2% in October, down for a third straight month and hitting a five-month low on October 20. Last month the International Energy Agency said the global oil market faces a surplus next year of as much as 4 million bpd. OPEC, meanwhile, expects global oil supply and demand to balance next year.	Reuters	Trump Says China Keen on Alaskan Energy
European markets start the new trading month higher; Auto stocks rise 1% Gold steadies as investors await US private payroll data		Summary: European stocks gained, propelled by strong Ryanair earnings, while investors brace for a critical week dominated by central bank decisions and further corporate results. Summary: Gold prices stabilized above $4,000, constrained by a strong dollar, as traders await U.S. jobs data for clarity on future Fed rate cuts. Analysts see weaker economic signals potentially boosting gold toward $4,200 by year-end, driven by its appeal during uncertainty and lower interest rates, despite minor resistance from China's new tax rule.	CNBC	Will Bright Outlook for U.S. Power Industry be Dimmed by Labor, Manufacturing Shortfalls? FirstEnergy Invests Heavily in Years-Long T&D Buildout for PJM
Natural Gas News: Cold Forecasts, LNG Strength Have Traders Eyeing 52-Week Average		Natural gas futures ended the week higher, lifted by record LNG demand and early signs of colder weather in December models. While prices briefly surpassed $4.15 intraday on Friday, fundamentals continue to limit follow-through, with high production and elevated storage preventing a sustained bullish shift. Technically, the market is building within an elongated support base and closed above the midpoint of the $4.211 to $3.595 short-term range, with $3.903 now acting as new support. The first target for bulls is the swing high at $4.211, followed by an intermediate pivot at $4.336 and major resistance at the 52-week moving average of $4.404.	FX Empire	Rio Grande to Account for 5% of Global LNG
US-China trade agreement: what did both sides commit to do?		Summary: The "historic" US-China trade agreement marks a de-escalation, revealed through a White House fact sheet detailing key Chinese concessions. These include easing rare earth export controls and committing to massive US soybean purchases. While the US lowered some tariffs, it maintained core chip export restrictions, leading analysts to view the deal as a significant, yet temporary, truce that doesn't resolve the underlying long-term tech rivalry.	SCMP	EU Seeks to Break China's Critical Minerals Stranglehold
Energy Transition Stalls 10 Years After Paris Agreement		Summary: Ten years post-Paris Agreement, the clean energy transition is slowing despite record renewable installations. Geopolitical shifts, a hostile US policy environment, and regulatory burdens in the EU are creating massive financial uncertainty. While China dominates investment, the global pace lags far behind the net-zero goal, raising concerns about wavering commitments ahead of the COP30 summit in Brazil.	OilPrice	In Face of Declining Exports, U.S. Administration Props Up Coal Sector
Week 10/27/25 - 11/03/25		Welcome to November, as "2 of the 3" Global Heightened Worries this past year have been somewhat addressed. This is as the ceasefire in Gaza could erupt once again into a war if the U.S. diplomatic pressures being applied to prevent such from Israel are not enough. Will there even be a Phase II of the "U.S.-brokered deal" that will more likely ensure this ceasefire will last? Outlook hazy. Now that the U.S. and China seem to have wrangled their "trade differences" - at least for another year - the World can turn its attention to Eastern Europe and the "it will take a miracle" possibility of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Russia is unwilling to - in good faith - come to the "negotiating table" to hash out a "deal" acceptable to all "parties." Commodity markets have bounced off near-term lows - reflective of geopolitical risk premiums removed from these markets with the "deals" struck. Although now one wonders about the news that will be forthcoming from Central Banks and the U.S. jobs data. Will the economics - which have been a "hall of mirrors" this year - provide some uplift and momentum into this year's end? Outlook very doubtful.
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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