IEA Sees Cleaner Energy & Carbon Capture Growth Among Keys to 1.5˚ C Climate Scenario

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Written by Paul Wiseman for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--The road to achieving the COP21 ideal of holding human-induced temperature increases to 1.5˚ C above pre-industrial levels will be paved with electric vehicles (EVs), low-carbon electricity and a thick layer of carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS), says a new report.

Issued in April by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the report is entitled, "Credible Pathways to 1.5° C," with a subtitle of "Four pillars for action in the 2020s." Its four pillars are:

• Getting the energy sector to net zero by 2050
• Reducing deforestation to net zero by 2030
• Cutting non‐CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), especially methane, and
• Scaling up the innovation and deployment of carbon management technologies

The Energy Sector
"There is no credible pathway to limiting warming to 1.5˚ C without steep and immediate reductions in energy-related CO2 emissions," the report says of the first pillar. Cleaning up the power generation sector, among the main CO2 emitters, would be reached through the expansion of renewables and nuclear, along with adding CCUS to fossil-fuel-fired plants.

Replacing those fossil fuel plants with renewables would be a big step. The latter accounted for a record-setting 90% of new generation capacity in 2022, a trend that must continue. "Annual capacity additions of renewables need to quadruple from historical levels (or roughly triple from levels achieved in 2022) and reach 1,200 GW annually by 2030, representing on average more than 90% of new generation capacity each year."

Transportation will be another key component. The IEA says global electric car sales would have to reach a 60% market share while zero-emission heavy truck sales should attain a 35% share. The agency refers to zero emissions for trucks instead of specifically EVs because trucks, especially those used in long-haul scenarios, need the greater range provided by hydrogen, green diesel or other non-battery-based storage formats.

In the U.S., the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) proposal of vehicle emissions restrictions would, in the estimation of many experts, push EV sales to two-thirds of the number sold by 2032. This change has not been approved, and faces some stiff opposition.

Agriculture
Agriculture, forestry and other land use contributes about 20% of global human-caused GHG emissions, says the report. A large chunk of that is attributed to deforestation, which removes a major natural source of CCUS, leaving more CO2 unabsorbed. Stopping deforestation by 2030 would create the greatest GHG advance in that sector.

Other GHG Emissions
The IEA says methane is responsible for 30% of global temperature rise in the industrial era, with the energy industry responsible for 40% of the methane totals. In the U.S., another proposed EPA rule change would tighten emissions of methane and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), expecting to reduce emissions by 74% over 2005 levels by 2030. Its remediation suggestion: "Around $100 billion in total investment is needed over the period to 2030 to achieve this reduction--equivalent to less than 3% of oil and gas net income in 2022." It fails to note reports that calamitous drops in natural gas prices due to first-quarter 2023 oversupply issues have slashed cash flow for shale drillers by up to 75%.

Nitrous oxide is another target for reduction. The IEA report says agriculture is responsible for about 80% of anthropogenic N2O emissions. Industry and transportation are behind the majority of energy-related N2O emissions. Because of its proposed deployment in that sector, it is noteworthy that N2O is emitted by hydrogen combustion just as it is by fossil fuel use.

Carbon Management
Although last on its list, the IEA sees CCUS as very critical, especially in industries that emit GHG as an unavoidable part of the system. Cement, steel and certain chemicals make up this list.

For fossil-fuel-fired power generation, capturing CO2 from the smokestack prevents it from ever reaching the atmosphere. After that, the CO2 can either be sequestered underground or used in the manufacture of other carbon-based fuels. Direct air capture (DAC), grabs CO2 from the atmosphere. The report notes that the DAC pipeline would need to grow by four times its current level by 2030 to reach climate goals.

The other option for CCUS is truly green, involved "in the process of biomass growth, in the case of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)." That sounds very natural, but the IEA points out that using DAC and BECCS to achieve these goals would be basically impossible to scale, requiring:

• A land area equivalent to the current cropland of the United States to supply bioenergy
• About 760 gigawatts of additional wind and solar generation capacity (almost equivalent to the current combined capacity of the European Union, United States, India and Japan)
• Thermal energy almost equivalent to the 2021 natural gas consumption of the European Union

"Credible Pathways" will still require trillions of dollars of investment to achieve. There are likely to be potholes on this road.

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