IIR's April 24 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Crude Oil is Headed for a Lackluster Week. Here's Why.		As the shock from the early-April decision from OPEC+ to cut production fades, analysts are expecting something of a lackluster performance for crude oil given emerging signals of weakening demand. Ole Hanson, the head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank in Denmark, explained that expectations of additional rate hikes on both sides of the Atlantic, the imminent resumption of oil exports from northern Iraq and a survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia showing factory activity dipped to its lowest point in three years all created bearish conditions last week for the price of oil.	Houston Chronicle	U.S. Rig Count, SLB: Your Daily Energy News
The Week Ahead: Q1 GDP, Inflation, and the BoJ in the Spotlight		The week ahead could prove pivotal, with the euro area and US inflation and GDP numbers to guide investors and central banks on monetary policy. For the Dollar: On Tuesday, Consumer confidence figures kickstart the week for the greenback. A fall below 100 would move the dial, with views on the labor market, income prospects, and buying intentions likely focal points. The Week Ahead For the Euro: The German economy will be in the spotlight in the first half of the week, with business and consumer sentiment figures in focus. Investors will then have to wait until Friday for a euro area data dump. French, German, and euro area GDP numbers for Q1 and prelim April inflation numbers for France, Germany, and Spain will move the dial.	FXEmpire	An Oil Price Tug o' War in the Making
Crude Oil Retreats Over Fears of Falling U.S. Gasoline Consumption		The market was also led by gasoline this week, after further disappointing weekly figures, as gasoline deliveries fell 4.6% last week in the United States compared to the previous period, according to the United States Energy Information Agency (EIA) - the volumes are about 4% lower year-on-year (YoY)... Overall, the data indicates an increase in gasoline stocks and a decrease in gasoline production in the U.S., which may suggest a potential oversupply of gasoline in the market.	FXEmpire	BASF Boosts Spending on MDI, Other Chemicals in North America
Russia on Track for 2023 Oil Output of 9.6 Million BBL/d in Line with Cuts		Russia's oil output this year is on course to top 480 million tonnes, or about 9.6 million barrels per day (BBL/d), a Russian government source familiar with the data told Reuters. The figure, which excludes gas condensate, is in line with Russia's pledge to cut production by 500,000 bpd to 9.5 million BBL/d from March until year-end, according to Reuters calculations and the source. "If you extrapolate for the whole year, production will be 480 million tonnes," the source told Reuters on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of such data.	Reuters	Supply-Chain Woes for Transformers Worry U.S. T&D Providers
Four Scenarios That Could Send Oil Prices To $200		It was the talk of the town last year. Traders bet on oil hitting $200 by March this year. Hedge fund managers warned it could even reach $250 before 2022 was over. None of that happened, and in hindsight, it's easy to see why: global oil markets have time and again proved they are a lot more resilient than traders give them credit for. But is oil at $200 still a possibility? It always is, under certain scenarios. #1 Major Ukraine escalation - a major escalation in the conflict, possibly through more direct NATO involvement, could send prices flying high. #2 More OPEC+ cuts - .. An attack on Saudi production facilities could do the trick if it's very successful, but with the war in Yemen nearing its end after the Chinese-brokered thaw between Riyadh and Tehran, such an attack has become purely hypothetical. #3 Russia production cuts - Of course, those forecasts never considered the option that Russia would simply switch buyers and Europe and the U.S. would switch sellers, which is exactly what happened. #4 Underinvestment comes to bite - Luckily for all, even the consistent underinvestment in new oil and gas exploration may not be enough to take prices all the way to $200. Because the industry, with the help of technology, will always respond to demand by adjusting production.	OilPrice	Cenovus Sees Upstream Growth, Downstream Woes in Early 2023
Panama Canal Lowers Maximum Depth Limit on Ships Due to Drought		The Panama Canal will impose lower draft restrictions on the largest ships passing through the key global trade route due to falling water levels at nearby lakes that form part of the waterway, the canal authority said on Tuesday. The restrictions, which will take effect on Wednesday, mean so-called neo-Panamex container ships seeking to cross the canal connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans must comply with a maximum depth of 47.5 feet, down from 50 feet, forcing them to weigh less or otherwise transport fewer goods.	Reuters	Port Houston's Ship Channel Expansion Project Ramps Up
Week 04/17/23 - 04/24/23		Are alarm bells ringing to signal retreat? Everywhere one turns - North, South, East, West - you hear exclamations of concern from pundits & central bankers. Economic mostly as the cry goes out, "Where is there signs of demand?" Is it with the Eagle in the West one asks? - "No" is the reply, as there are signs of worsening gasoline consumption as summer driving season gets under way. Is it in the North one asks? - "No" is the refrain as the economic crunch & crisis continues and souring economies are on tap. Is it in the South one asks? - "No" is the chorus as emerging markets are struggling in these tough & getting-tougher economic times. Is it in the East one asks? - "Well maybe," as the Dragon showing signs of life is what is heard. That's it--just a "Maybe" for signs of demand, and that maybe is not enough to stem the alarm bells from ringing as the price retreat is on in commodity markets.
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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