IIR's December 29 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Trump says Ukraine and Russia are 'closer than ever' to peace after talks with Zelenskyy		AI Summary: The Mar-a-Lago summit reveals a fragile "90% ready" peace framework offering Ukraine NATO-equivalent security without membership, yet the path remains perilous. While Trump projects transactional optimism, the summit exposes deep fissures: Zelensky's conditional willingness for demilitarized zones clashes with Putin's unyielding territorial demands in the Donbas, leaving the war's end suspended between complex diplomacy and ongoing violence.	AP News	ESG Projects Attract Pulp & Paper Investments
Trump to meet Netanyahu in Florida as focus turns to Middle East issues		AI Summary: President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu's summit highlights a stark strategic divergence: while the U.S. seeks a "Phase 2" political resolution involving Palestinian governance, Israel resists full withdrawal and statehood. With a humanitarian winter catastrophe deepening in Gaza and Iran threatening "all-out war," the meeting is a crucial test of whether the alliance can bridge the gap between immediate security demands and the necessary, complex architecture of a lasting regional peace.	BBC	Trump Administration Pauses Site Leases at Offshore Projects Under Construction
Oil jumps 2% as investors weigh Ukraine talks against supply outlook		Oil prices rose by more than $1 on Monday as investors weighed talks between the U.S. and Ukrainian presidents on a possible deal to end the war in Ukraine against potential oil supply disruption in the Middle East. Both benchmarks fell by more than 2% on Friday. Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, is expected to lower the February price for its flagship Arab Light crude for Asian buyers for a third month, mirroring declines in the spot market owing to abundant supplies.	Reuters	TotalEnergies Creates Largest North Sea Player in U.K.
European defense stocks slide amid Ukraine peace talks Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed in final week of 2025		AI Summary: European markets paused as peace talk optimism triggered a sharp rotation: defense stocks slumped on hopes of a "90% agreed" Ukraine deal, while mining and oil rallied. Yet, with "thorny issues" persisting and holiday volumes thinning, investors navigate a fragile equilibrium between the promise of stability and the endurance of long-term security imperatives. AI Summary: Asian markets opened the year's final week in disparate rhythm, with Seoul surging while Tokyo stumbled. However, the true narrative emerged in silver's violent volatility--spiking to records before crashing--a warning that beneath the surface of equity calm, speculative currents and supply scarcities are already pricing in a turbulent 2026.	CNBC	EU: Carbon Tax Extended To Protect Metals Industry Will GOP Food Fight Break Out Over AI Regulation, Affecting Data Center Buildout?
Natural Gas News: Weather Forecast Sparks Reversal as Futures Eye Counter-Trend Rally		AI Summary: Natural gas futures staged a sharp technical reversal on light holiday volume, driven by colder forecasts and aggressive short-covering. While this suggests a potential counter-trend rally toward $4.25, the market remains fundamentally anchored by record production. Investors must now weigh the fleeting urgency of winter weather against the persistent gravity of structural oversupply.	FX Empire	Rocky Mountains, West Coast Regions Lead U.S. T&D Buildouts
US and China Head Into 2026 With a Fragile Trade Truce		AI Summary: The US-China trade truce enters 2026 on precarious footing, eroded by Beijing's persistent rare earth restrictions and retaliatory sanctions over Taiwan. While Washington delays semiconductor tariffs, the relationship is defined by "deliberate uncertainty." This geopolitical fragility is starkly mirrored in gold's historic surge past $4,500, as the global economy hedges against the dismantling of established commerce in favor of defensive realignment.	National Interest	EIA: It Is Difficult to Track Many Critical Minerals Supply/Demand and Markets
Green Hydrogen's Uncertain Future		AI Summary: Green hydrogen has shifted from pandemic-era hype to a sobering "reality check," hampered by prohibitive costs--up to $23/kg--and regulatory paralysis. With renewable power increasingly diverted to data centers, Europe has drastically slashed its 2030 output targets. Yet, massive new EU infrastructure investments suggest the vision isn't dead, merely facing a much steeper, more complex climb.	OilPrice	IEA: Global Coal Use Up Slightly in 2025, But Declines Seen to 2030
Week 12/22/25 - 12/29/25		What lies in store as we get ready to ring in the New Year is again anybody's guess. Will there be peace in Eastern Europe? Outlook murky even if the "peace framework" is supposedly 90% ready. Will peace be maintained in the Middle East? Outlook unlikely as tensions are sure to boil over this winter. Will U.S.-China geopolitical tensions lead to another trade war? Outlook is that they will as each side makes overtures that the other is unable to agree to. It seems one of the only things most pundits can agree to is that energy demand in the form of large loads is set to explode upward--especially in regard to data centers and the rise of AI--further straining already overmatched grids. In 2025 we witnessed the Iberian Peninsula outage and saw China's national grid teeter on the brink of collapse. How much worse will it be in 2026? Looks like the bet is on high volatility in these commodity markets as pundits try to provide clarity knowing the odds of such are definitely not in their favor with too many unknowns mucking up models and forecasts.
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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