IIR's February 20 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
OPEC Forecast Runs Into a U.S. Inflation Problem		Seemingly betting the lot on China, economists at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said they expected a tighter market for 2023, with risks coming from uncertainty over the future direction of shale. But with inflation a top concern, the overall outlook may be bit more balanced than expected.	IIR News	-
Oil Rises on China Demand Hopes and Supply Concerns		The benchmarks settled $2 down on Friday for a decline of about 4% over the week after the United States reported higher crude and gasoline inventories... (Though) oil prices rose on Monday, buoyed by optimism over Chinese demand, continued production curbs by major producers and Russia's plans to rein in supply... Analysts, meanwhile, expect China's oil imports to hit a record high in 2023 to meet increased demand for transportation fuel and as new refineries come on stream.	Reuters	U.S. Might Do More Heavy Lifting for Europe With Refined Products
The Outlook for the US Economy, Oil Prices, and the Fed: Navigating the Challenges Ahead		The last crucial US economic data releases were singing the same song--higher for longer. Sizzling core readings in the CPI and PPI crushed hopes for a tidy melt in inflation. A ferocious recovery in January retail sales sequestered thoughts of a meaningful economic cooldown. Dreams of an imminent end to Fed rate hikes were lost in the haze of hawkish Fedspeak after Presidents Mester and Bullard implied that a 50-basis-point hike could be on the table for the March Fed meeting. ...While the bullish China thesis remains primarily intact; however, higher-than-expected U.S. and Russian production and the loss of gas-to-oil switching have left markets awash with current inventory, seeing traders turn wary. If the bullish thesis holds, it will take longer for oil markets to trade above $90, leaving oil bulls more exposed to the unavoidable macro cliffs.	FXEmpire	Global Electric Demand Slowed in 2022, but Future Trends Depend on China, India
Global Oil Demand Hit Record High In December		Global oil demand surged by 1.3 million barrels per day (BBL/d) to a new record high in December, with total demand at 102% above the pre-Covid levels in December 2019, data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) showed on Monday. Rising consumption in Japan, Indonesia, and South Korea drove the growth in global oil demand in the last month of 2022, according to the JODI data shared by the Riyadh-based International Energy Forum (IEF). In Japan, total product demand jumped by 512,000 BBL/d to a 12-month high.	OilPrice	ExxonMobil Sues European Union Over Windfall Tax
Crude Summit: Completion Doubts Abound for New Refining		Nearly 1mn b/d of new US refining capacity is under construction or planned for investment in the coming years, but many of those projects are unlikely to be completed on time or at all. ..."IIR Energy has all of these at low probability right now and they will not be increasing probability until they [the refineries] reach final investment decision," IIR energy market correspondent Hillary Stevenson said at the Argus Americas Crude Summit in Houston, Texas (..last week..)	Argus	Valero's Refining Segment Shines on High Margins
Why America's outdated energy grid is a climate problem		Most of the U.S. electric grid was built in the 1960s and 1970s. Today, over 70% of the U.S. electricity grid is more than 25 years old, and that aging system is vulnerable to increasingly intense storms... Demand for electricity in 2030 will be 14% to 19% higher than 2021 levels, according to an analysis from REPEAT(Rapid Energy Policy Evaluation and Analysis Toolkit), an energy policy project led by Jesse Jenkins, and 27% to 39% higher by 2035, Jenkins said. "A 21st century grid has to accommodate steadily rising electricity demand to power electric vehicles, heat pumps, industrial electrification and hydrogen electrolysis, and it needs to extend to new parts of the country to harness the best wind and solar resources. Both factors mean we simply need a bigger grid with more long-distance transmission," Jenkins told CNBC.	CNBC	Idacorp Ups 2023 Spending to Expand T&D, Access to Renewables
Week 02/13/23 - 02/20/23		To Demand or not to Demand, that is the Question: Now 7 weeks into this New Year and all "bullish" eyes remain - and seemingly hopes as well - are on the Dragon (China) opening her maw to swallow hydrocarbons. However, the Eagle (U.S.) economy has something to say to "those hopes and dreams," which could be a dash of reality - in that there is not really a cooldown unfolding, nor a seemingly soft landing in store. Rather inflation is very present with the dollar getting stronger. Therefore, likely prudent to stay mired in the economic reality of the moment rather than be caught up in demand dreams; although JODI did report Asia drove a record in demand in December. Hhhhmmm...
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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