IIR's January 20 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Dramatic day ushers in a fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire after 15 months of war		After 15 months of war that began with a brutal attack on Israel by Hamas and ended with much of the Gaza Strip levelled by Israel, a ceasefire came into effect on Sunday that saw three women hostages released from Gaza and 90 Palestinians freed from Israeli jails in return. For two tense hours on Sunday morning, the ceasefire looked as though it might falter from the very outset. Hamas failed to provide the names of the three hostages it planned to release, prompting Israel to postpone the ceasefire and continue its air strikes on Gaza. The IDF, which should withdraw its troops from populated areas during the first phase of the deal, warned civilians on Sunday not to approach the buffer zone it had created along Gaza's borders or the military zone in central Gaza, known as the Netzarim corridor, which cuts the north of the territory from the south.	BBC	Why Would Anybody Want to Buy Greenland?
Ukraine opens a new front against Russia - flattering Trump		World leaders have been rushing to get on Donald Trump's good side since his reelection as US president, arguably none more so than Ukraine. In his annual New Year address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he had "no doubt that the new American president is willing and capable of achieving peace and ending Putin's aggression," in comments that embody his approach to winning over Trump. Years on, the stakes could not be higher for Ukraine. Kyiv enters 2025 on the backfoot in its war against Russia... Under outgoing President Biden, the US became the single largest provider of military assistance to Ukraine and Kyiv remains keenly aware that it needs to stay on Trump's side to secure future support.	CNN	Europe's Oil & Gas Industry Wants a Carbon Capture Bank
Oil prices fall as market awaits Trump policy announcements		Oil prices fell on Monday as traders awaited U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration in the hope of some clarity on his policy agenda, including plans to end the Russia-Ukraine war. The focus is what executive orders Donald Trump will sign over the next 24 hours, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. PVM oil analyst Tamas Varga said the price declines were because of the huge uncertainty over the incoming president's new policies.	Reuters	Oil Production Expected to Outpace Global Demand
European markets trade lower ahead of Trump's inauguration Asia-Pacific markets mixed after China's fourth-quarter GDP beats estimates Gold advances as softer core CPI data revives Fed easing hopes		European markets traded lower on Monday, with investor attention on the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump later in the day. Investors in the region are awaiting news on whether Trump will follow through on promises to impose new tariffs on U.S. imports after his inauguration. Investors in Europe are also gearing up for the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, this week. Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Friday as investors parse a slew of economic data out of China. China's economy expanded by 5% year on year in 2024, with an upswing in the final quarter of the year. The country's fourth-quarter GDP beat expectations with a 5.4% growth. Gold prices extended gains on Wednesday, as the dollar dipped after U.S. core inflation data came in softer than expected, abating inflation pressures and rekindling expectations that the Federal Reserve's easing cycle may not be over yet.	CNBC	Senate Panel Lavishes Praise on Interior Secretary Nominee
Natural Gas News: Is Trump's Deregulatory Push Setting Up a Bullish Market?		LNG exports are set to double as Trump lifts the moratorium on permits, tightening U.S. supply and raising natural gas prices. Trump's deregulation agenda aims to boost natural gas production by lowering operational constraints on energy producers. Market analysts raise forecasts, with Morgan Stanley projecting $4.15/MMBtu for 2025, citing export demand and tighter inventories. The EIA predicts a 2025 Henry Hub natural gas price of $3.10/MMBtu, rising to $4.00/MMBtu by 2026 due to supply-demand imbalances. Infrastructure projects, like the Alaska LNG pipeline, are critical for expanding U.S. market reach but face permitting hurdles.	FX Empire	Feedgas to U.S. LNG Terminals Hits Record High
China both hopeful and on edge as Trump returns to White House		Chinese officials and ordinary people are hopeful but on edge as Donald Trump returns to the White House, eager to avoid a repeat of the bruising trade war that drove a wedge between the economic superpowers during his first term. Chinese Vice President Han Zheng, in meetings with Tesla CEO Elon Musk and other members of the U.S. business community in Washington ahead of Trump's inauguration, said he hoped U.S. companies would "take root" in China and help to stabilise bilateral relations, the official Xinhua news agency reported. When Trump was last president, he heaped tariffs on more than $300 billion of Chinese imports. In recent months, he has said he would add tariffs of at least 10% on top of what is already imposed on Chinese goods, a move that would hurt China at a time when its economy is struggling to find a firm footing.	Reuters	Arab Gulf Countries Pledge to Invest Billions in Brazil's Strategic Minerals Sector
Trump to Expedite Fossil Fuel Infrastructure, Roll Back Green Regulations		President-elect Donald Trump is preparing to unleash a flurry of executive orders later this afternoon, reportedly numbering around 200, to reignite his 'America First' agenda. On the energy front, Trump is expected to declare a national energy emergency to ramp up domestic crude oil and natural gas production to reduce power bill costs for all Americans. "While many of the executive actions will simply kick off a lengthy regulatory process, they're set to touch the full spectrum of the US energy industry, from oil fields to car dealerships," Bloomberg noted, adding, "They also underscore Trump's determination to reorient federal government policy behind oil and gas production, a sharp pivot from Biden's efforts to curb fossil fuels."	OilPrice	Trump's Energy Agenda Starts from All-Time Highs
Week 01/13/25 - 01/20/25		I Have a Dream...expressed by MLK was an appeal to end economic and employment inequalities...Now on this MLK day we shall but begin to witness the Dream(s) of the incoming U.S. administration through several executive orders and the likely declaration of a national energy emergency. With a dream of a U.S.-led agreement which will bring about the end of the Russia-Ukraine war...similar in nature to the fragile ceasefire which has been agreed to between Israel and Hamas. Also, Uncle Sam will be considering nuanced approaches to address political turmoil unfurling throughout the EuroZone and the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region. Not to mention Canada. And with the World Economic Forum set to take place this week, how will new U.S. leadership look to operate in a world embroiled in economic uncertainties - as Central Banks still seek to tame inflation through various policy measures. With the prevalent thought Uncle Sam will be imposing tariffs across the world to address trade imbalances and bring parties to the negotiation table where deals pertaining to economy, energy, and security can be struck, thereby alleviating perceived inequalities.
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).