IIR's March 27 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Oil price recovery depends on market confidence		Crude oil prices are expected to recover lost ground, but it may take a boost of confidence to assure the market that a banking crisis won't leave long-term scars on the global economy, analysts said. Broader markets, however, responded as expected to the decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve to hike its interest rate by another 25 basis points. Central banks in other Western economies largely followed suit. Peter Martin, head of economics at Wood Mackenzie, said that, barring a major setback in the financial sector, the Fed could actually be cutting rates by the end of the year. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the forced marriage of Credit Suisse and UBS triggered something of a loss in confidence, but this isn't the Great Recession. "The global banking system is in a much healthier state than it was in 2007-08 - with greater capital buffers and stronger balance sheets," he said.	Houston Chronicle	U.S. Natural Gas Producers: Enjoy the Good Times While They Last
Crude Oil Prices Settle Lower as European Banking Shares Fall; U.S. Energy Secretary Dampens Demand Prospects		U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures settled lower on Friday as European banking shares fell and after U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said refilling the country's Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) may take several years, dampening demand prospects. Crude oil futures were pressured by banking turmoil in Europe, with sellers reacting throughout the trading session on Friday. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury bonds rose on flight-to-safety buying, driving the U.S. Dollar lower and making dollar-denominated crude oil more attractive to foreign buyers. The sell-off was further fueled by European banking shares, including Deutsche Bank and UBS Group, falling on concerns that the sector's worst problems since the 2008 financial crisis could persist.	FXEmpire	Refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Venezuela's Oil Exports: Your Daily Energy News
Deutsche Bank Shares Crater as Banking Concerns Resurface		Shares of Deutsche Bank (DB) are sinking as the largest German bank has become the latest financial institution to be impacted from the fallout caused by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in the U.S. The selloff was fueled by soaring demand for Deutsche Bank's five-year credit default swaps, which are derivatives that act like insurance in case the bank defaults on its payments. Prices jumped to their highest level since 2018 at one point today. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz tried to ease concerns, saying "there is no need to worry about anything." He added that Deutsche Bank has fundamentally modernized and reorganized its business model, and "is a very profitable bank."	Investopedia	Hydrocarbons, Banks and Interest Rates
A banking crisis means the Fed has a new inflation ally that it never wanted: A credit crunch		The Federal Reserve is getting some unwanted help in its drive to slow the U.S. economy and defeat the worst bout of inflation in four decades: A cutback in bank lending. The upheaval in the financial system that's followed the collapse of two major U.S. banks is raising the likelihood that lending standards will become sharply more restrictive. Fewer loans would mean less spending by consumers and businesses. That, in turn, would make it harder for companies to raise prices, thereby reducing inflationary pressures. At the same time, some economists worry that the slowdown might prove so severe as to send the economy sliding into a painful recession.	Fortune	Shell Sees Long-Term Geopolitical Problems for U.S. Energy
New Global Refinery Capacity Caters to High-Demand Hotspots		Researched by Hillary Stevenson for IIR. Around the world, large-scale refineries are nearing completion after years in the works and are expected to bring much-needed refined product supply to market. Western Asia and Africa are among the regions ramping up refined product production, amid growing demand and global distillate tightening. This contrasts with regions like North America and Europe, where refinery projects are focused on ESG and alternative-fuel development. At least two world-scale refinery projects are nearing completion: Dangote Industries Limited's Lekki Refinery in Nigeria, and Kuwait Integrated Petroleum Industries Company's (KIPIC) Mina Al Zour Refinery in Kuwait. Including Dangote and Mina Al Zour, Industrial Info is tracking 2.53 million BBL/d of refining capacity under construction globally, at 15 plants.	IIR News	New Global Refinery Capacity Caters to High-Demand Hotspots
Don't mess with Texas' lead in the low-carbon energy transition		Everything's bigger in Texas. The same goes for the transition to a greener and cleaner economy. "Texas is as well suited or better suited than any place in the world to lead the energy transition," Austin-based energy consultant Doug Lewin told ImpactAlpha at the University of Texas' Global Sustainability Leadership Institute. "Markets are moving. The technology is progressing. We've got great universities. All the pieces are here." "If," he added, "we have the will to do this." Last week, the GOP-led state legislature introduced a slate of bills that would hamper development of renewable energy in the state while boosting new fossil fuel plants.	ImpactAlpha	Nestle Partners with Enel on Texas Solar Project, Signs PPA
Week 03/20/23 - 03/27/23		Nothing to see here. Just like SVB, Credit Suisse, the Fed, & Central Banks, the German Chancellor is espousing "..Nothing to see here, all is more than well.." as Deutsche Bank now teeters. Well now I for one can definitely breathe a sigh of relief believing the worst of the banking crisis is in the rear view - Or is it? - thanks to the German Chancellor & other world leaders saying, "We're good. Trust us". This as a looming credit crunch is likely in the proverbial financial cards. Followed by a *gulp* recession - maybe. Meanwhile a view from the IIR Energy Hills indicates more refining capacity is coming online in Africa & the Middle East - perhaps in time to lessen this Summer's diesel crunch & crisis. One hopes. Mayhap one less crisis to be worried about in this New Year...
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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