IIR's May 15 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Expecting debt deal, industry sees West Texas crude price rising		Crude oil prices might be a bit static as economic woes compete with supply-side concerns, though commodity analysts said the market should move higher as we approach the second half of the year. ...For now, however, the price of oil is stuck between competing narratives. "Oil markets remain fixed on the global demand outlook," Mower said. "While oil prices have bounced from recent lows on some confidence that the U.S. banking crisis has been contained, the move higher has been capped as traders are not entirely convinced that the worst is over." On the supply-side, the provincial government in Alberta declared a state of emergency during the previous weekend due to wildfires. Those fires have taken about 3% of Canadian oil production offline, though the market has largely shrugged that off given the impact is contained in North America.	Houston Chronicle	TC Energy, U.S. Rig Count: Your Daily Energy News
Oil Price Forecast: WTI Slides as Supply and Economic Fears Intensify		Oil prices settled lower on Friday, marking the third consecutive week of decline. The market faced a balancing act between supply concerns and renewed economic worries in the United States and China. Economic concerns heightened as talks over the U.S. government's debt ceiling were postponed and worries grew over a crisis-hit regional bank, leading to mounting fears of a potential recession in the world's largest oil-consuming country. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman stated that if inflation remains high, the central bank will likely need to raise interest rates further.	FXEmpire	Wildfires Cause Oil & Gas Shutdowns in Alberta, an Industrial Info Weather Impact Update
Oil prices fall on stronger dollar, demand fears		Oil prices settled more than 1% lower on Friday, falling for the fourth consecutive week, as the market balanced supply fears against renewed economic concerns in the United States and China. The U.S. dollar clung to modest gains against the euro on Friday and was headed for its biggest weekly gain since February, as uncertainty around the U.S. debt ceiling and monetary policy prompted a shift to safe havens. A stronger greenback makes dollar-priced oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. "Lack of confidence in the economy is translating to a retreat to the safer dollar, and is also causing pessimism about oil demand," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York. Concern mounted that the United States - the world's biggest oil consumer - will enter recession, with talks over the U.S. government's debt ceiling postponed and concern growing over another crisis-hit regional bank.	Reuters	Nigeria's Dangote Readies to Open Africa's Largest Refinery
Why Turkey election outcome is crucial for world energy		In 718 AD, the Byzantine Empire used Greek fire, a petroleum-based weapon, to destroy an Arab fleet besieging Constantinople. That is perhaps the last time that what is today Turkey has played a leading role in global energy politics. But Sunday's elections, which are set to go to a run-off, could change all that. The vote hinges on several crucial issues: blame on the AKP for high inflation and poor economic conditions, and the devastating impact of February's earthquakes, hostility to Syrian refugees, concerns over Mr Erdogan's alleged authoritarianism and corruption, women's rights, and complaints of Russian interference. Energy is not directly one of these. Yet the outcome is suddenly crucial for world energy in a way that previous Turkish votes were not. That change comes from three major developments of recent years. First, Ankara's relations with Moscow and the impact of the war in Ukraine. Second, its complex involvement with Iraq. And third, the emergence of the East Mediterranean as an important gas-producing area	The National News	CEMEX Points to Growing Adoption, Benefits of ESG Initiatives
National self-interests a threat to global energy transition - World Energy Council		The World Energy Council has published results from its latest World Energy Pulse survey, which shows national self-interests as one of the greatest obstacles to energy transition. The survey polled more than 700 energy leaders and decision-makers from across the globe to get an idea of current attitudes toward progress on energy transition. Almost half (46%) of respondents cite national self-interests as well as the risk of a green technology arms race as the greatest obstacles to progressing orderly, clean and just energy transitions. Within the context of a post-COVID world, the war in Ukraine and the ripple effects of the US Inflation Reduction Act, the World Energy Pulse shows that national interests continue to dominate as 59% of respondents agree that energy independence is critical to securing their countries' climate-energy-security agendas.	Smart Energy International	EPA Issues Draft Rule Regulating Power Plant Emissions
The Energy Transition Has A Metals Problem		Copper prices this week fell to the lowest since last November on weak economic data from China. Yet the International Copper Study Group, a group of copper exporters and importers, just said it expected a deficit of the metal this year. Others, such as commodity giant Trafigura, are sounding the alarm for long-term shortages, too, expecting record prices for the metal, without which the energy transition would be impossible. Yet prices remain weak. And this is a big problem. Wind and solar installations require between eight and 12 times more copper than coal and gas generation capacity, according to the International Bar Association. EVs notoriously require three to four times more of the basic metal than internal combustion engine vehicles. A transition to net zero would thus require much more copper than we are producing now on a global scale	OilPrice	U.S. Copper Miners Race to Meet Surging Global Demand
Week 05/08/23 - 05/15/23		Debt, Dollar & Demand... Mr. Market is rightly worried about these "three Ds" leading to a fourth - Disaster. For many eyes & ears are tuning in to the New World soap opera - US Debt Ceiling - Deal or no Deal. For if the U.S. Defaults on its debts then the economic world will wrestle with the fallout of this loss of confidence in the US dollar - which has served for over a century as the world's reserve currency. This default will likely tip the world into an ever worsening recession, which will drag down demand and no amount of tightening supply will be able to prop up hydrocarbon prices...
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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