Japan PM's Snap Elections Could Strengthen Her Energy Policy

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Written by Paul Wiseman for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Japan's still-new prime minister has called for snap elections on February 8, hoping to leverage her personal popularity to boost her party's margin in the Japanese parliament. Observers generally agree that this could backfire.

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Here We Go Again

Only in office since October 21 of last year, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has called for snap elections. Her order dissolves the Lower House on January 23, with elections set for February 8. For more information, see October 22, 2025, article - Japan's New Prime Minister Pushes Nuclear and Energy Security.

"This election could be very telling," said Geoffrey S. Lakings, Energy Market Strategist for Industrial Info. "If it does strengthen PM (Prime Minister) Takaichi's position, it could give her more influence over both energy policy and international relations. That would include not only China, but the Trump Administration as well."

"If it's not successful for her, the uncertainty could continue, as it would take a significant jump by the opposition to gain any secure footing for altering policies," Lakings continued.

At the time of her election last year, Takaichi was already the nation's fourth prime minister in five years, due at least in part to scandals in her ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

This election will be more than two years early--the next Lower House elections were not scheduled until October of 2028.

Takaishi's Gamble, Dueling Polls

The popularity numbers of Japan's first woman prime minister currently are through the roof. Various polls put her at anywhere from 62% approval to 78.1%.

Analysts believe her personal story, in which she rose from working-class roots to political power, may play a greater role in her popularity than her right-leaning political policies. But this may not bode well for any influence she might have on the rest of the LDP.

The LDP could use the help. In power since 1955, the party has approval ratings of a paltry 29.7%. If Takaichi were to successfully capitalize on her own high approvals in this election, it could strengthen the LDP's razor-thin governing margins in both houses.

Officially, according to a Google translation of her press conference statement, she said, "I am putting my future as prime minister on this election." She added, "I would like the people to make a direct decision on whether they can entrust the management of the nation to Sanae Takaichi."

The risks are real. Just last week, LDP's largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, joined forces with the political party Komeito. The latter previously had been in coalition with LDP for 26 years. Together, including Komeito's 24 seats, this new coalition controls 172 of the Lower House's 465 seats.

LDP quickly formed a new coalition with the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), which controls about 38 seats, momentarily boosting its margin. However, analysts point out that both Komeito and JIP could gain or lose seats simply due to their change in coalition partners, leaving the upcoming vote in significant limbo.

International Relations

As prime minister, Takaichi has made some significant moves already. On November 8, she said in parliament that any attempt by China to forcibly seize Taiwan could bring about an intervention by Japan's Self-Defense Forces.

Soon thereafter, China imposed export controls on certain dual-use items that could be used either in general technology or in military operations. These include such categories as advanced materials, chemicals, precision equipment, rare earths, semiconductors and magnets.

For her part, Takaichi has talked of backtracking on Japan's climate goals of adding more solar panels because those come primarily from China. For any solar panels that would be added, Japanese companies are experimenting with perovskite solar panels, a next-generation solar film that is more energy efficient than current types imported from China.

She has also worked toward closer relations with South Korea and the U.S., as well as Taiwan, promoting Japan's "Abe doctrine" (which originated with Takaichi mentor and former Japan PM Shinzo Abe) of increased military spending.

Trump and Takaichi

Just days after she took office, U.S. President Donald Trump traveled to Tokyo, where the two signed an agreement involving investments in critical minerals, for security purposes. And in December, Japan was included in a White House meeting with eight allies, also regarding critical minerals security based on reducing dependence on China. For more on that, see December 11, 2025, article - U.S., Allies Seek to Lessen China's Hold on Critical Minerals.

By the Numbers

• February 8: Date set for snap elections in Japan
• 465: Number of seats in Japan's Lower House of Parliament

Key Takeaways

• Because the LDP rules only due to a coalition, this election is already seeing behind-the-scenes maneuvering among coalition partners.
• Although Takaichi called the election hoping to strengthen her party's majority, if it backfires it could lead to further PM changes and turmoil in the government.

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About IIR News Intelligence
IIR News Intelligence is a trusted source of news for the industrial process and energy markets, powered by Industrial Info Resources' Global Market Intelligence (GMI).

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 Trillion (USD).