North American Transmission & Distribution Buildout Powers Ahead

Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Everything's bigger in ... Minnesota? It's not often that the Land of 10,000 Lakes beats out the Lone Star State for anything, but when it comes to planned electric power transmission & distribution (T&D) projects scheduled to break ground over the next two years, Minnesota beats out Texas, Iowa and a host of other states and provinces in North America.

Approximately 49 T&D projects valued at about $5 billion are scheduled to begin construction in Minnesota between July 2025 and June 2027, according to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform. Transmission spending in that state is anchored by the Oliver 600-kilovolt Center North Plains Connector Transmission Line, a $2.25 billion, 385-mile project stretching from central North Dakota to Colstrip, Montana, which is expected to more than double the transfer capacity between the Western and Eastern interconnections. That project accounts for about 45% of that state's planned T&D spending. Otter Tail Power Company (Fergus Falls, Minnesota), a unit of Otter Tail Corporation (NASDAQ:OTTR) (Fergus Falls) owns the project. A request for proposal (RFP) is scheduled to be released by mid-2026 to select an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) firm for the project. Subscribers to Industrial Info's GMI Power Project Database can learn more by viewing the project report.

Following Minnesota are Texas, Iowa, Nevada and North Dakota as the North American states or provinces with the greatest dollar value of T&D project kickoffs between July 2025 and June 2027.

Click on the image at right to see a chart of the top 10 North American states and provinces with the largest dollar value of T&D project kickoffs over the next two years.

Of the 1,134 T&D projects scheduled to begin construction over the next two years, Industrial Info deems about 582 have a low probability (between zero and 69%) of beginning construction according to their current schedule. Another 461 projects have a medium probability of sticking to their current schedule. And approximately 91 have a high probability (81%-99%) of kicking off construction according to schedule. The value of those high-probability projects alone is about $3.78 billion.

Among those 91 high-probability projects, Texas has the greatest dollar value of T&D projects scheduled to begin construction between July 2025 and June 2027, at about $1.2 billion. The Lone Star State is followed by California ($789 million), Ohio ($276 million), Ontario ($176 million) and Nevada ($153 million) as the North American states and provinces with the greatest dollar value of T&D projects scheduled to kick off over the next two years.

Click on the image at right to see a chart of the top 10 North American states and provinces with the largest dollar value of high-probability T&D projects scheduled to begin construction between July 2025 and June 2027.

Among high-probability T&D projects, the University of California at Berkeley is the largest single project, a 65-megawatt (MW) microgrid system valued at about $477 million. The high price tag for that project is because it is a large integrated project including a new central electrified heating and cooling plant with electrified heat pumps and chillers, a geothermal system, thermal storage tanks, a new electrical switch station, 12 MW of onsite rooftop-, carport- and ground-mounted solar generation, 8 MW of green hydrogen-ready fuel cells and 45 MW of battery energy storage capacity that would assist in transitioning the campus to a new, decarbonized and resilient energy source capable of providing uninterrupted, back-up power to campus facilities in the event of an emergency or outage. Subscribers can click here to learn more.

Texas has several more narrowly focused T&D projects on this high probability list, including the Christine 345-kV San Miguel-to-Cruce transmission line project, valued at about $378 million, and the 345-kV Howard-Road-to-San-Miguel overhead transmission line project, valued at about $150 million. Those projects are owned by South Texas Electric Cooperative Incorporated (Nursery, Texas) and CPS Energy (San Antonio, Texas), respectively.

Industrial Info does not forecast that all of these proposed projects, even the high probability ones, will move forward according to their current schedules. Transmission lines have been particularly difficult to site.

Many utilities have raised their planned capital expenditures (capex), in part to build new T&D infrastructure or rebuild or expand existing infrastructure.

Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).