North America's Near-Term Weather Outlook and its Implications for Energy Markets

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Written by Aaron Studwell, Ph.D. for IIR News (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

The 2025-26 late-winter outlook is defined by short-term polar vortex variability, rather than a sustained cold regime. While seasonal temperature averages favor milder conditions across the southern U.S., sharp cold surges remain the primary risk driver for energy demand, grid reliability, and fuel logistics.

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Overview

Guidance suggests the next three months will be shaped by short-term variability in the polar vortex, rather than locking into a long-term cold pattern. The polar vortex is an atmospheric pattern associated with the seasonal polar low-pressure system and associated winds; a disruption of this feature often leads to more variable conditions, where shifts in the jet stream can either usher in cold Arctic air or warm winds channeling north from the Gulf.

A key factor in this Outlook will be the development of high pressure near Alaska by mid-January, which can open the door to periodic Arctic air outbreaks across much of North America, particularly across the Plains and in the eastern U.S.; this would include the Canadian Prairies, extending east to Quebec. This pattern is consistent with the ongoing weak La Niña and represents the primary pathway for episodic Arctic air delivery into high energy-load regions.

However, if that Alaskan pattern weakens, warmer air could spread eastward, reducing cold risks and changing both energy demand and water supply outcomes. In this scenario, southwesterly winds from the Gulf and associated warmer temperatures will spread across the eastern two-thirds of North America, materially altering demand and hydrologic outcomes.

Large-Scale Climate Drivers

This winter's weather pattern has been influenced by seasonal variability in the polar vortex, which strengthened the ridge of high pressure near the Bering Sea, influencing conditions across North America. This Alaskan ridging translates its influence downstream in pulses, rather than locking in one persistent cold pattern. Small shifts in the jet stream will lead to noticeable changes in storm tracks and resulting cold air outbreak, particularly across the northern U.S. and central Canada.

A key factor for the late winter outlook is the West Pacific Oscillation (WPO), which is a key metric of how strong the Alaska-Bering Sea ridge becomes. When the WPO phase turns negative, as is forecast for the latter half of January, there is a stronger likelihood of colder air funneling south out of Canada and into the U.S., generally east of the Rockies. Even with cold Canadian air occasionally reaching the Gulf Coast, temperatures across ERCOT and the Southeast will average above normal through the Outlook period.

Temperature Outlook and Demand Implications

The late-winter temperature outlook favors above-normal temperatures across the southern tier of the U.S.; below-normal temperatures are forecast from the Canadian and Northern Rockies, across the northern U.S. and into southern Canada. This pattern is broadly consistent with both a weak La Niña base state and the large-scale climate drivers detailed above.

Importantly, a generally mild seasonal average does not rule out occasional cold air outbreaks. When weather patterns favor strong high pressure near Alaska, cold air can repeatedly spill out of Canada, affecting the Midwest, Great Lakes, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic. These episodes can also drive a more active storm track.

From a regional demand perspective, it is essential to distinguish between average seasonal temperatures and the risk of brief but impactful cold events. The forecast heating-degree days (HDDs) for ERCOT and the Southeast are projected to be below normal. However, reliability risk is driven by the intensity of these episodic Arctic intrusions; system sensitivity during early-morning net-load peaks, when wind output, thermal availability, and fuel logistics can become prominent issues.

Click on the image at right for a map detailing the January-February-March (JFM) temperature outlook.

Precipitation Outlook and Snowfall Signals

The three-month precipitation outlook reflects a classic La Niña pattern. Wetter-than-average conditions are favored from the Pacific Northwest across the northern U.S., through the Great Lakes, and into parts of the Ohio Valley. In contrast, much of the southern U.S., from the Southwest through Texas and into the Southeast, is expected to be drier than normal.

The key driver will be ridging over the North Pacific and troughing over central North America, which support a storm track from the Pacific Northwest toward the Great Lakes and into St. Lawrence Valley, characterized by frequent northern stream systems and periodic enhancement from interaction with a moisture-rich southern jet.

Snowfall risk remains highest across western and central Canada, the northern Rockies, the Upper Midwest, the Great Lakes snowbelt regions and the interior Northeast. A cold northern air supply combined with frequent storms supports continued late-winter snow potential. However, if the main storm track shifts west, warmer air could spread eastward, reducing snow in the eastern U.S. while shifting precipitation impacts farther west later in the season.

Click on the image at right for a map detailing the JFM precipitation outlook.

Hydrologic Outlook

The late-winter hydrologic outlook is tightly linked to storm-track persistence, snowpack retention, and the precipitation phase, particularly across western regions. Conditions remain most favorable across the Pacific Northwest and coastal British Columbia, where frequent Pacific storms are expected to support improving reservoir inflows and continued snowpack gains at higher elevations. This forecast would enhance late-winter hydropower flexibility and would strengthen spring runoff potential. However, persistent storms elevate operational risk during cold events, including icing, access limitations, and storm-related transmission disruptions.

Farther south, hydrologic confidence declines. Portions of the Sierra Nevada and central Rockies continue to experience snow deficits, despite colder conditions elsewhere. In these regions, late-winter outcomes remain highly sensitive to the individual storm's thermal structure. Colder systems favor snow accumulation and delayed runoff, improving late-spring and summer water availability. Warmer storms increase rainfall fractions, lift snow levels, and accelerate runoff, boosting near-term inflows while eroding longer-term supply reliability.

Across eastern Canada and the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence basin, a colder, active pattern supports sustained snowpack and favorable spring inflow potential, but also heightens exposure to freeze-thaw cycling, ice development, and rapid inflow surges during brief warm periods. Similar variability affects the Northeast U.S., where alternating cold and thaw regimes complicate hydropower scheduling during peak winter demand.

Energy Reliability and Market Risk

The NERC Winter Reliability Assessment remains the appropriate lens for late-winter risk, emphasizing that reliability concerns are driven by high-impact events. The Assessment highlights rising winter peak demand; the increasing presence of large, continuous loads; and the operational limits of battery storage. While batteries provide flexibility, they are constrained during multi-day cold events when recharge windows narrow and state-of-charge management becomes binding. Late winter also heightens exposure to fuel logistics challenges, particularly in regions where natural gas deliverability constraints coincide with peak heating and power demand.

The Pacific Northwest, ERCOT, parts of SERC, and Atlantic Canada and the Maritimes have been identified as elevated-risk regions. This footprint is especially relevant during the late-winter period because it overlaps with both the late-January heating-demand peak across the Midwest and East and the preferred northern-tier storm track. As a result, reliability stress is most likely when cold air movement into high-load regions coincides with wind or thermal underperformance, pipeline constraints, or storm-related grid disruptions, even if seasonal averages appear manageable.

Closing Thoughts

The late winter 2026 outlook should be focused on times when the short-term weather impacts will outweigh the seasonal mean. For energy markets, this means getting ready for possible cold-air events instead of focusing on the long-term average temperatures.

Late January remains the clearest exposure point, with elevated heating-demand risk across the Midwest and Northeast, impacts on the natural gas basis markets, and stress on power generation coordination. Even if the broader pattern trends warmer, reliability risks persist when cold intrusions coincide with constrained fuel logistics, potential underperformance of renewables, or storm-related grid disruptions.

The Pacific Northwest and coastal British Columbia benefit from a favorable storm track, while the Sierras and Rockies retain snowpack and runoff-timing risk tied to storm thermal structure. Overall, the late-winter hydro outlook will hinge on timing rather than climatology.

Key Takeaways

• Late winter will be characterized by episodic, high-impact cold events rather than sustained cold conditions.
• Forecasted storm track supports above-normal precipitation from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes, yielding possible transmission and industrial reliability issues.
• Hydropower availability will improve in the Pacific Northwest, while water supply risk persists in the Sierra Nevada and central Rockies.

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About IIR News
IIR News is a trusted source of news for the industrial process and energy markets, powered by Industrial Info Resource's Global Market Intelligence (GMI).

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 trillion (USD).