Released July 03, 2024 | SUGAR LAND
en
Written by Paul Wiseman for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--As has been noted here and elsewhere, about half the world's GNP is voting/has voted this year, including India and the United States, two of the planet's three most populous nations. At issue are a long list of key issues, with energy transition and immigration among the items that could be "single issue" enough to sway voters by themselves.
June's elections in Europe, India, South Africa and France have given evidence that voters are increasingly concerned about both issues, but particularly in regard to the growing realization of the extraordinary cost and inconvenience of exchanging fossil fuels for renewables. In most countries, conservative or even outright anti-green parties either won or gained enough seats to threaten the green mandate that voters swept into office just five years earlier.
After all, most of civilization has spent the better part of 100 years in almost total dependence on the benefits of cheap, plentiful hydrocarbons: working in town while living in suburbia; year-round 72 degree comfort; 24-hour bright light, enabling homework, housework and shift work; cheap goods manufactured in efficiently powered factories locally and overseas and shipped to the doorstep for pennies per mile; satellite communications placed by hydrogen-powered rockets; ammonia-based fertilizers that boost farm productivity and reduce food costs; and a list that, in 10-point Helvetica, could wrap around the planet several times.
Yet an increasingly adamant environmental movement is spreading the word that burning of fossil fuels in those pursuits is heating the planet and harming ecosystems--and it must be stopped, and the sooner the better. The fact that heat records are being set daily across the globe is hard to dispute, but the human and financial cost of weaning off this century-long addiction will be staggering and will likely require significant lifestyle changes beyond simply plugging in a car overnight.
Many environmental advocates have promised that this change can be accomplished with little interruption, inconvenience, or additional consumer cost, partly because the government and big investors are going to fund most of the ever-exploding research and development (R&D) bills.
Is that realistic?
Is that possible?
Is that desirable?
The latter is the question under consideration across the globe in 2024, especially for denizens of the United States of America, where the two likely major-party candidates are a universe apart on energy policies.
Yergin Identified the Issue in 1991
Historian Daniel Yergin has written two epic tomes on the history, influence, and conflict surrounding the oil industry: 1991's The Prize and its 2011 follow-up, The Quest. In the prologue to the first book, Yergin described the green-versus-hydrocarbon battle thusly: "... the stage has been set for one of the great and intractable clashes of the 1990s between, on the one hand, the powerful and increasing support for greater environmental protection and, on the other, a commitment to economic growth and the benefits of the Hydrocarbon Society, and apprehensions about energy security."
This conflict has continued, and will continue, well into the future. The three-legged stool for energy is availability, affordability and sustainability, said the Energy Institute's (London, England) Juliet Davenport and Nick Wayth in their 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy.
Heavily on the minds of recently-tallied Europeans is that energy security can be as fleeting as freezer burn in a microwave, suffering the loss of cheap and plentiful Russian natural gas since the latter's 2021 invasion of Ukraine. Can renewables really fill the gap in both reliability and affordability? The intermittency of the top renewable choices, wind and solar, puts reliability in question, even when adding battery storage to the mix.
In this series we will examine those fears, starting in the next installment by looking at the evolution of what Yergin quotes anthropologists as calling the hydrocarbon society, or more directly, "Hydrocarbon Man." In other words, how most of the world's rapidly expanding population became almost totally dependent on hydrocarbons for every aspect of their lives, especially food and comfort.
The third step will address the beginning and progression of the environmental movement and the amount of investment compared with the results.
After that, the next three will evaluate fossil fuels vs. renewables on the three pivotal points: reliability, affordability, and sustainability.
IIR research keeps a close watch on progress of developing projects in both categories, and also tracks operations of existing facilities, reporting on planned and unplanned shutdowns that affect the energy grid and the supply chain.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).
June's elections in Europe, India, South Africa and France have given evidence that voters are increasingly concerned about both issues, but particularly in regard to the growing realization of the extraordinary cost and inconvenience of exchanging fossil fuels for renewables. In most countries, conservative or even outright anti-green parties either won or gained enough seats to threaten the green mandate that voters swept into office just five years earlier.
After all, most of civilization has spent the better part of 100 years in almost total dependence on the benefits of cheap, plentiful hydrocarbons: working in town while living in suburbia; year-round 72 degree comfort; 24-hour bright light, enabling homework, housework and shift work; cheap goods manufactured in efficiently powered factories locally and overseas and shipped to the doorstep for pennies per mile; satellite communications placed by hydrogen-powered rockets; ammonia-based fertilizers that boost farm productivity and reduce food costs; and a list that, in 10-point Helvetica, could wrap around the planet several times.
Yet an increasingly adamant environmental movement is spreading the word that burning of fossil fuels in those pursuits is heating the planet and harming ecosystems--and it must be stopped, and the sooner the better. The fact that heat records are being set daily across the globe is hard to dispute, but the human and financial cost of weaning off this century-long addiction will be staggering and will likely require significant lifestyle changes beyond simply plugging in a car overnight.
Many environmental advocates have promised that this change can be accomplished with little interruption, inconvenience, or additional consumer cost, partly because the government and big investors are going to fund most of the ever-exploding research and development (R&D) bills.
Is that realistic?
Is that possible?
Is that desirable?
The latter is the question under consideration across the globe in 2024, especially for denizens of the United States of America, where the two likely major-party candidates are a universe apart on energy policies.
Yergin Identified the Issue in 1991
Historian Daniel Yergin has written two epic tomes on the history, influence, and conflict surrounding the oil industry: 1991's The Prize and its 2011 follow-up, The Quest. In the prologue to the first book, Yergin described the green-versus-hydrocarbon battle thusly: "... the stage has been set for one of the great and intractable clashes of the 1990s between, on the one hand, the powerful and increasing support for greater environmental protection and, on the other, a commitment to economic growth and the benefits of the Hydrocarbon Society, and apprehensions about energy security."
This conflict has continued, and will continue, well into the future. The three-legged stool for energy is availability, affordability and sustainability, said the Energy Institute's (London, England) Juliet Davenport and Nick Wayth in their 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy.
Heavily on the minds of recently-tallied Europeans is that energy security can be as fleeting as freezer burn in a microwave, suffering the loss of cheap and plentiful Russian natural gas since the latter's 2021 invasion of Ukraine. Can renewables really fill the gap in both reliability and affordability? The intermittency of the top renewable choices, wind and solar, puts reliability in question, even when adding battery storage to the mix.
In this series we will examine those fears, starting in the next installment by looking at the evolution of what Yergin quotes anthropologists as calling the hydrocarbon society, or more directly, "Hydrocarbon Man." In other words, how most of the world's rapidly expanding population became almost totally dependent on hydrocarbons for every aspect of their lives, especially food and comfort.
The third step will address the beginning and progression of the environmental movement and the amount of investment compared with the results.
After that, the next three will evaluate fossil fuels vs. renewables on the three pivotal points: reliability, affordability, and sustainability.
IIR research keeps a close watch on progress of developing projects in both categories, and also tracks operations of existing facilities, reporting on planned and unplanned shutdowns that affect the energy grid and the supply chain.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).
