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Released October 28, 2025 | SUGAR LAND
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Written by Daniel Graeber for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)
SUMMARY
Federal estimates point to a year-on-year decline in crude oil production from 2024 levels, while current oil prices may be creating headaches for operators in the North Dakota shale patch. U.S. oil prices could be in the $40 range by next year.
Meanwhile, the North Dakota Industrial Commission reported oil production dropped by 10,000 BBL/d to average 1.15 million BBL/d month-on-month to August, the last full month for which the state published data.
Justin Kringstad, the director of the state's pipeline authority, said Friday that he has "cautious optimism" about production trends over the next couple of months, while Nathan Anderson, director of the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources, said "rigs have moved out of the heart of the basin."
Operators, meanwhile, may face headwinds should crude oil prices linger below $50 per barrel, Anderson said. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark for the price of crude oil, was trading at around $61.25 per barrel early Monday and the EIA expects it to drop to $48.50 by next year.
Bakken crude oil production is unchanged in the EIA's forecast for next year. The only place for oil production growth next year for the U.S. is offshore.
Bison Pipeline LLC, a joint venture between TC Energy (Calgary, Alberta) and ONEOK (Tulsa, Oklahoma), is aiming to bring the gas capacity on the network from 420 million cubic feet per day to 430 million cubic feet per day. The existing Bison Pipeline stretches some 300 miles across North Dakota, Wyoming and Montana.
Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Oil & Gas Project Database can learn more about the Bison project here.
Despite some positive momentum in the natural gas sector, the sentiment from North Dakota was apparent sector-wide for much of the year, with successive quarterly surveys from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas finding U.S. trade policies are not conducive to growth. Earnings reports were hardly better.
"Looking ahead to 2026, early indicators point to another year of subdued activity possibly leading to another year of global upstream spending decline," Lorenzo Simonelli, the chief executive officer at Baker Hughes (Houston, Texas), said Thursday.
Net income for Baker Hughes was $609 million during the third quarter, a 13% decline from second-quarter levels. Before its third quarter report was released, Simonelli was fretting over the impact of U.S. tariffs on the domestic energy sector.
U.S. President Donald Trump is squarely behind fossil fuels, though his tariff policies are creating headwinds. While oil and natural gas themselves were spared, import taxes on steel and aluminum complicate a U.S. energy sector that doesn't make its own tubular products for pipelines.
Key Takeaways
About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
SUMMARY
Federal estimates point to a year-on-year decline in crude oil production from 2024 levels, while current oil prices may be creating headaches for operators in the North Dakota shale patch. U.S. oil prices could be in the $40 range by next year.
Forecasts Call for Drop in Bakken Production
The Bakken, an early industry darling during the initial stages of the U.S. shale sector boom in the early 2000s, is on pace for an annual decline in production, according to federal forecasts. The Energy Information Administration (EIA), part of the Department of Energy, said in its monthly market report for October that it expected production to decline by about 2.5% from year-ago levels to average 1.2 million barrels per day (BBL/d) this year.Meanwhile, the North Dakota Industrial Commission reported oil production dropped by 10,000 BBL/d to average 1.15 million BBL/d month-on-month to August, the last full month for which the state published data.
Justin Kringstad, the director of the state's pipeline authority, said Friday that he has "cautious optimism" about production trends over the next couple of months, while Nathan Anderson, director of the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources, said "rigs have moved out of the heart of the basin."
Operators, meanwhile, may face headwinds should crude oil prices linger below $50 per barrel, Anderson said. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark for the price of crude oil, was trading at around $61.25 per barrel early Monday and the EIA expects it to drop to $48.50 by next year.
Bakken crude oil production is unchanged in the EIA's forecast for next year. The only place for oil production growth next year for the U.S. is offshore.
Natural Gas to Expand
As fields mature due to production, meanwhile, heavier molecules associated with crude oil get trapped in subsurface pores while lighter compounds such as natural gas flow to the production well, and North Dakota is looking to expand its gas deliveries from the Bakken.Bison Pipeline LLC, a joint venture between TC Energy (Calgary, Alberta) and ONEOK (Tulsa, Oklahoma), is aiming to bring the gas capacity on the network from 420 million cubic feet per day to 430 million cubic feet per day. The existing Bison Pipeline stretches some 300 miles across North Dakota, Wyoming and Montana.
Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Oil & Gas Project Database can learn more about the Bison project here.
Despite some positive momentum in the natural gas sector, the sentiment from North Dakota was apparent sector-wide for much of the year, with successive quarterly surveys from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas finding U.S. trade policies are not conducive to growth. Earnings reports were hardly better.
"Looking ahead to 2026, early indicators point to another year of subdued activity possibly leading to another year of global upstream spending decline," Lorenzo Simonelli, the chief executive officer at Baker Hughes (Houston, Texas), said Thursday.
Net income for Baker Hughes was $609 million during the third quarter, a 13% decline from second-quarter levels. Before its third quarter report was released, Simonelli was fretting over the impact of U.S. tariffs on the domestic energy sector.
U.S. President Donald Trump is squarely behind fossil fuels, though his tariff policies are creating headwinds. While oil and natural gas themselves were spared, import taxes on steel and aluminum complicate a U.S. energy sector that doesn't make its own tubular products for pipelines.
Key Takeaways
- State regulators in North Dakota anticipate production declines over the long term
- Operators may face headwinds should crude oil prices linger below $50 per barrel
- North Dakota looks to expand its gas deliveries from the Bakken
About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
