Solar PV Market Could Grow 35% with Off-Grid Applications Serving as a Long Term Driver

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas). By the end of 2005, the cumulative installed capacity of all PV (photo voltaic) solar power generating systems around the world had reached the landmark figure of 5,000 megawatts the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) stated in a report compiled in association with the environmental lobby group Greenpeace. This shows a fourfold increase from the total of 1,200 megawatts at the end of 2000. Shipments of PV cells and modules around the world have been growing at an average annual rate of more than 35% since 1998.

Comparing the average annual megawatt installation capacity with ‘SolarGeneration’ scenario predictions, the report records 1,397 megawatts installed in 2005 against a predicted 838 megawatts, which is equivalent to a 66% increase of the predicted figure. In 2010, the predicted installation figure for the year is 2,810 megawatts, which could mean, if the current pattern is maintained, that over 4,600 megawatts of PV cells will be installed in that year. The report suggests that the year on year growth will rise at an even faster rate and an installation figure of 5,500 megawatts could be expected in 2010.

The market growth rate is expected to shift from 35% per annum to 26% between 2010 and 2015 and consolidate to 19% to 2020 and 11% from 2021 to 2025. Initial growth is expected to be fastest in the grid-connected sector, but by 2010, the off-grid sector will play an increasing role.

Although there have been advances in the technology of inverters required to feed solar power into grid systems, the off-grid applications for PV power have always been PV’s basic niche. The EPIA projects a total of 900 million off-grid consumers in 2020 with the figure rising to 1.6 billion off-grid consumers by 2025. Grid connected PV consumers worldwide for the same years are put at 135 million and 290 million, respectively.

Taking the 20-year period between 2005 and 2025, there will be an estimated average annual investment in the PV industry of $57 billion. From 2005 to 2020, the annual investment figure is put at just under $40 billion per annum. The total investment value of the PV industry in 2025 is estimated at $130 billion and in 2020 $96 billion.

Estimates from various industry sources concerning the value of the current market move in a range from $10.5 billion in 2005 to $19 billion in 2006 to a possible maximum $72 billion in 2010. The expectations contained in the regular upward revisions of these figures demonstrate that the PV market is on the move.

The grander projects for solar-generated power see massive arrays of cells, mirrors, lenses, troughs, concentrators and collectors using the abundant solar energy and approaching the outputs of traditional base power stations. Some of these projects already exist, with others on the way. But from the above figures, it would appear that the sustained breakthrough for the PV industry will happen in predominately off-grid applications where the standalone and scaleable nature of the technology is a special advantage.

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