Stable Copper Prices Boost Project Activity in Global Copper Industry

Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Capital and maintenance activity at copper mines and mills is scheduled to surge over the next two years, as producers get comfortable with copper prices above the $3 per pound mark. Copper prices hit a five-year low of $1.50 per pound in early 2009, then jumped to a five-year high of $4.50 per pound in 2011. While the metal has come down off those highs, it had traded above $3 per pound for two years.

Click the image at right for a chart showing copper prices over the last five years.

Meanwhile, copper mine and mill owners around the world have sharply increased their scheduled spending for capital and maintenance projects. A total of 225 capital and maintenance projects are scheduled to kick off at copper mines and mills around the world over the next 12 months, according to Industrial Info's Global Metals & Minerals Project Database. The total investment value (TIV) of these projects is about $70.5 billion. The industry also plans healthy capital spending for the June 2014-May 2015 period.

Click on the image at right for a chart on the dollar value of scheduled project activity for copper mines and mills around the world.

Industrial Info does not expect all of these projects to kick off as scheduled: some will be delayed, while others will be cancelled. However, continued high prices for copper should lead to new project announcements, particularly where companies can access high-grade ore.

The countries with the strongest scheduled copper-related project spending are Peru, Canada, Chile and Australia, according to Industrial Info's database. Chile is far and away the world's largest copper producer; it mined about 5.4 million metric tons of the mineral in 2012, according to the U.S. Geological Service (USGS) (Reston, Virginia). The next largest copper producers in 2012 were China, Peru, the U.S. and Australia.

Click on the image at right to see a chart showing scheduled copper-related capital and maintenance project spending by country for the next 12 months.

"A gradually rising U.S. housing market and strengthening U.S. consumer confidence are helping support copper's current price and domestic demand," said Joseph Govreau, Industrial Info's vice president of research for the Metals & Minerals industry. U.S. single-family home prices rose in March by the most in seven years, and consumer confidence climbed in May to the highest level in more than five years.

"Still, there are concerns about demand in China, which accounts for about 40% of the world's consumption of refined copper," Govreau continued. "China's economy is slowing, which will cut into demand for copper as homes and factories are constructed at a more measured pace compared to the go-go years of 2010 and 2011."

China recorded 10%-plus annual GDP growth for the first decade of the 21st century, but the government expects economic growth this year to be about 7.5%. China's factory activity shrank for the first time in seven months in May, kindling concerns about the impact of slower economic growth in the world's second-largest economy.

Click on the image at right to view a graphic of China's slowing economic growth.

Around the world, the industry plans to begin work on several multibillion-dollar projects over the next 12 months, including:

• Udokan Grassroot Above-Ground Copper Mine and Processing Plant, a $5.8 billion project located in Russia that is scheduled to begin turning dirt in mid-2014
• Stewart Grassroot Kerr-Sulphurets-Mitchell Above-Ground/Underground Gold and Copper Mine and Mill, a $5.3 billion project in British Columbia, Canada, that has scheduled an October 2013 kick-off date
• Barira Grassroot Frieda River Above-Ground Copper and Gold Mine and Mill, a $4.5 billion project located in Papua New Guinea that is scheduled to begin construction next May
• Arequipa Cerro Verde Above-Ground Copper and Molybdenum Mine and Concentrator Expansion, a $4.4 billion project located in Peru that plans to begin turning dirt later this year
• Calama El Abra Above-Ground Copper Concentrator Addition, a $4 billion project in Chile that expects to begin construction by year-end 2013
• Roxby Downs Olympic Dam Above-Ground Copper and Uranium Mine Concentrator Addition, a $3.9 billion project in Australia that is scheduled to kick off in early 2014

Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, and eight offices outside of North America, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle™, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities.