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Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Texans may be seeing power emergency alerts this summer, and possibly even experience rotating brownouts or blackouts, as strong electric demand growth is expected to result in an electric reserve margin of about 8.6%, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) (Austin, Texas) said May 8. An 8.6% reserve margin is lower than industry standards; power operators typically like to see reserve margins of 10% to 15%, to cover unexpectedly large increases in demand coming from extreme weather as well as unplanned power plant or transmission line outages.
"In all of the scenarios studied for the final summer Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA), ERCOT identified a potential need to enter Energy Emergency Alert (EEA) status in order to maintain system reliability," the grid operator said in a statement May 8. "The final summer SARA report includes a forecasted peak demand of 74,853 megawatts (MW), which is 1,300 MW higher than the all-time peak demand record set last summer on July 19." This summer's peak electric demand is calculated based on average weather conditions at the time of the summer peak for 2003-2017, ERCOT said.
The electricity situation is highly dynamic. A hotter-than-average summer, or a greater-than-expected number of power plant or transmission outages, could wreak havoc on peak demand or electric resource availability, triggering electric emergency alerts and, potentially, rolling brownouts or blackouts. On the other hand, a tighter supply-demand balance likely would push up electric prices, which could convince out-of-the-money generators to turn their plants on to capture higher prices.
This is not the first year that ERCOT has sounded an advance alarm about the ability of generators to keep the lights on. Last year the agency sounded a similar alert. For more on that, see March 5, 2018, article - Texas Faces a 'Tight' Summer, as Electric Reserve Margins Shrink.
Acknowledging that this summer, "operating reserves are expected to remain tight," ERCOT expects total summer generation resource capacity to increase to 78,929 MW. The anticipated increase in resources stems from the expected return of a 365-MW gas-fired unit, increased output from certain units that are undergoing equipment upgrades and an increase in the amount of DC tie imports, which is now based on what is expected during emergency conditions, it said.
"ERCOT is prepared to use the tools and procedures that are in place to maintain system reliability during tight conditions," said ERCOT President and Chief Executive Bill Magness.
Strong growth from West Texas oil and gas operations as well as increased industrial activity along the Texas Gulf Coast will push up system-wide electric demand growth 2.5% to 3% through 2022, ERCOT projected. In recent years, most U.S. electric utilities have faced either zero demand growth or fractional increases or decreases in electric demand. A 2.5% to 3% demand growth is thus multiples of what other utilities and grid operators are facing.
Since ERCOT issued a resource report last December, the agency said approximately 733 MW of installed wind and solar capacity has been approved for commercial operations, with summer peak capacity contributions of 333 MW. Twenty-two distributed generation solar units totaling 143 MW also were added to ERCOT's resource mix. Those solar units can contribute about 106 MW to the resource pool.
After this summer, ERCOT expects summer reserve margins will increase to 10.5% next summer, 15.2% in the summer of 2021 and 13% in the summer of 2022.
Click on the image at right for a graph from ERCOT showing predicted summer reserve margins.
Texas power plant owners have retired or announced the planned retirements of thousands of megawatts of coal-fired generation in recent years. Some of the replacement generation, whether gas-fired, wind or solar, has experienced delays in coming online. The state of Texas is almost entirely a self-contained electricity market, with scant interconnections to surrounding electricity markets, which limits the potential to import wholesale power from other regions.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn. For more information on our coverage, send inquiries to info@industrialinfo.com or visit us online at http://www.industrialinfo.com.
"In all of the scenarios studied for the final summer Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA), ERCOT identified a potential need to enter Energy Emergency Alert (EEA) status in order to maintain system reliability," the grid operator said in a statement May 8. "The final summer SARA report includes a forecasted peak demand of 74,853 megawatts (MW), which is 1,300 MW higher than the all-time peak demand record set last summer on July 19." This summer's peak electric demand is calculated based on average weather conditions at the time of the summer peak for 2003-2017, ERCOT said.
The electricity situation is highly dynamic. A hotter-than-average summer, or a greater-than-expected number of power plant or transmission outages, could wreak havoc on peak demand or electric resource availability, triggering electric emergency alerts and, potentially, rolling brownouts or blackouts. On the other hand, a tighter supply-demand balance likely would push up electric prices, which could convince out-of-the-money generators to turn their plants on to capture higher prices.
This is not the first year that ERCOT has sounded an advance alarm about the ability of generators to keep the lights on. Last year the agency sounded a similar alert. For more on that, see March 5, 2018, article - Texas Faces a 'Tight' Summer, as Electric Reserve Margins Shrink.
Acknowledging that this summer, "operating reserves are expected to remain tight," ERCOT expects total summer generation resource capacity to increase to 78,929 MW. The anticipated increase in resources stems from the expected return of a 365-MW gas-fired unit, increased output from certain units that are undergoing equipment upgrades and an increase in the amount of DC tie imports, which is now based on what is expected during emergency conditions, it said.
"ERCOT is prepared to use the tools and procedures that are in place to maintain system reliability during tight conditions," said ERCOT President and Chief Executive Bill Magness.
Strong growth from West Texas oil and gas operations as well as increased industrial activity along the Texas Gulf Coast will push up system-wide electric demand growth 2.5% to 3% through 2022, ERCOT projected. In recent years, most U.S. electric utilities have faced either zero demand growth or fractional increases or decreases in electric demand. A 2.5% to 3% demand growth is thus multiples of what other utilities and grid operators are facing.
Since ERCOT issued a resource report last December, the agency said approximately 733 MW of installed wind and solar capacity has been approved for commercial operations, with summer peak capacity contributions of 333 MW. Twenty-two distributed generation solar units totaling 143 MW also were added to ERCOT's resource mix. Those solar units can contribute about 106 MW to the resource pool.
After this summer, ERCOT expects summer reserve margins will increase to 10.5% next summer, 15.2% in the summer of 2021 and 13% in the summer of 2022.
Click on the image at right for a graph from ERCOT showing predicted summer reserve margins.Texas power plant owners have retired or announced the planned retirements of thousands of megawatts of coal-fired generation in recent years. Some of the replacement generation, whether gas-fired, wind or solar, has experienced delays in coming online. The state of Texas is almost entirely a self-contained electricity market, with scant interconnections to surrounding electricity markets, which limits the potential to import wholesale power from other regions.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn. For more information on our coverage, send inquiries to info@industrialinfo.com or visit us online at http://www.industrialinfo.com.
