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Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Texans may be in for another white-knuckle season for electricity. Earlier this month, after a prolonged spell of above-average temperatures drove up electric demand, six power plants tripped offline and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) (Austin, Texas) issued a request for Texans to turn up their thermostat to conserve energy and prevent rolling blackouts.
The six power plants, which have total generating capacity of about 2,900 megawatts (MW), were offline for only a short period of time on Friday, May 13, ERCOT said. The agency blamed "unseasonably hot weather (for) driving record (electric) demand across Texas." It asked Texans "to conserve power when they can by setting their thermostats to 78 degrees (Fahrenheit) or above and avoiding the usage of large appliances (such as dishwashers, washers and dryers) during peak hours between 3 p.m. and 8 p.m. through the weekend" of May 14-15.
The call for conservation briefly drove power prices in ERCOT from about $100 per megawatt-hour (MWh) to nearly $5,000 per MWh in certain parts of Texas. It also raised concerns about the agency's ability to keep air conditioners humming when temperatures hit triple-digits this summer.
There have been conflicting news reports that ERCOT told at least one power plant operator to delay its scheduled repairs and keep operating to help meet power demand during hotter-than-expected May weather. The next day, the plant experienced mechanical problems and briefly went offline.
After the May 13 call for conservation, Peter Lake, chairman of the Public Utilities Commission of Texas (PUCT) (Austin) held a press conference and declared "the lights are going to stay on this summer. We can say with absolute confidence to Texans that the lights will stay on this summer."
Others weren't so sure.
Earlier this month, before the May 13 ERCOT plea, energy expert Doug Lewin of Stoic Energy Consulting (Austin, Texas) advised Texans to "buckle up" for another summer of power emergencies and even power outages. Then, after the May 13 request from ERCOT, he said, "I think nobody will be reassured by this. With May being as extreme as it is, why would we not think we could get a very extreme summer? And if we get an extreme summer, it's very likely we will have problems."
Lewin also said ERCOT's move to ask generators to postpone maintenance outages over the past couple of weeks could put them in a compromised position when temperatures soar this summer.
ERCOT, the state transmission operator, manages the flow of electricity to more than 26 million Texans, approximately 90% of the state's population. It schedules power on an electric grid that connects more than 52,700+ miles of transmission lines and over 1,000 electric generation units.
Twice a year, the agency issues a Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) that looks at expected electric demand and the ability of generators to meet load. In previous summers, ERCOT predicted it probably would be able to meet expected electric load, unless a series of "low probability" events occurred that created an "extreme" scenario.
The events ERCOT warned about were significantly above average temperatures, greater-than-expected level of unscheduled outages at power plants, and low wind conditions that would cut electric generation from windfarms. If all of those conditions did not occur, they certainly came close. For more on that, see March 31, 2020, article - Texas Faces Energy Emergencies This Summer, but COVID-19 and Oil Industry Demand are Critical Unknowns, May 17, 2021, article - ERCOT Projects Lights Will Stay on in Texas This Summer and June 16, 2021, article - A Long, Hot Summer Spells Power Trouble in California and Texas.
About a month before Winter Storm Uri wreaked havoc on the Texas energy system in February 2021, ERCOT said lights should stay on during that winter -- unless "extreme" conditions occurred, which they did. For more on that, see January 3, 2022, article - Will the Lights Go Out in Texas this Winter? Under Extreme Conditions, Probably.
After ERCOT called for conservation on May 13, the Austin American Statesman quoted Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University's James Baker Institute: "We're still in the first half of May--and the dead of summer hasn't even hit us yet--and here we are talking about warnings and calls for conservation. ERCOT is doing it in a very haphazard way."
"Once again, I think we are seeing a lot of wishful thinking by ERCOT, (where they are) hoping for the best and not really preparing for the worst," Jones continued. He was a contributor to the study following Winter Storm Uri, in which significantly lower than expected temperatures froze the Texas energy infrastructure, leading to about 200 deaths and tens of billions of dollars in damage.
Daniel Cohan, an associate professor of civil and environmental engineering at Rice University, told the Texas Tribune, "I'm concerned with how hard those (power) plants have been run and that maintenance has been deferred to run the grid conservatively. It remains to be seen how much more vulnerable that leaves us to summer outages."
Texas is not the only state, or even region, facing potential power shortages this summer. A report from Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) (Carmel, Indiana), the grid operator for 15 Midwestern states, recently warned of potential power shortfalls this summer. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) (Atlanta, Georgia) recently warned that large shares of the U.S. face a heightened risk of electricity shortfalls this summer. And California is preparing to spend billions of dollars for emergency generation to ensure that a hot summer, or wildfires, or other natural disasters, do not turn out the lights in the Golden State.
Some continue to claim that historic heatwaves and record wildfires are one-off events, unconnected to global climate change. But a growing body of scientists and policymakers see increased weather extremes as one of several consequences of rising levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere.
"I'd say we whistled past the graveyard in the middle of this month," commented Britt Burt, Industrial Info's manager of research for the global Power Industry. "It gets really hot and humid in Texas during the summer, and the fact that we needed to call for voluntary energy conservation in the middle of May makes me wonder about this summer."
"Adding to the already complicated situation many of the thermal plants ERCOT depends on for baseload power are 30 years old or more," Burt continued. "If several of these plants were to trip offline during one of our periods of elevated temperatures, it could have devastating consequences for ERCOT and the people of the great state of Texas."
In short, "We are a ticking timebomb because we aren't building a great deal of reliable plants," Burt said.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the world's leading provider of market intelligence across the upstream, midstream and downstream energy markets and all other major industrial markets. IIR's Global Market Intelligence Platform (GMI) supports our end-users across their core businesses, and helps them connect trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated project opportunities. Follow IIR on: LinkedIn.
The six power plants, which have total generating capacity of about 2,900 megawatts (MW), were offline for only a short period of time on Friday, May 13, ERCOT said. The agency blamed "unseasonably hot weather (for) driving record (electric) demand across Texas." It asked Texans "to conserve power when they can by setting their thermostats to 78 degrees (Fahrenheit) or above and avoiding the usage of large appliances (such as dishwashers, washers and dryers) during peak hours between 3 p.m. and 8 p.m. through the weekend" of May 14-15.
The call for conservation briefly drove power prices in ERCOT from about $100 per megawatt-hour (MWh) to nearly $5,000 per MWh in certain parts of Texas. It also raised concerns about the agency's ability to keep air conditioners humming when temperatures hit triple-digits this summer.
There have been conflicting news reports that ERCOT told at least one power plant operator to delay its scheduled repairs and keep operating to help meet power demand during hotter-than-expected May weather. The next day, the plant experienced mechanical problems and briefly went offline.
After the May 13 call for conservation, Peter Lake, chairman of the Public Utilities Commission of Texas (PUCT) (Austin) held a press conference and declared "the lights are going to stay on this summer. We can say with absolute confidence to Texans that the lights will stay on this summer."
Others weren't so sure.
Earlier this month, before the May 13 ERCOT plea, energy expert Doug Lewin of Stoic Energy Consulting (Austin, Texas) advised Texans to "buckle up" for another summer of power emergencies and even power outages. Then, after the May 13 request from ERCOT, he said, "I think nobody will be reassured by this. With May being as extreme as it is, why would we not think we could get a very extreme summer? And if we get an extreme summer, it's very likely we will have problems."
Lewin also said ERCOT's move to ask generators to postpone maintenance outages over the past couple of weeks could put them in a compromised position when temperatures soar this summer.
ERCOT, the state transmission operator, manages the flow of electricity to more than 26 million Texans, approximately 90% of the state's population. It schedules power on an electric grid that connects more than 52,700+ miles of transmission lines and over 1,000 electric generation units.
Twice a year, the agency issues a Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) that looks at expected electric demand and the ability of generators to meet load. In previous summers, ERCOT predicted it probably would be able to meet expected electric load, unless a series of "low probability" events occurred that created an "extreme" scenario.
The events ERCOT warned about were significantly above average temperatures, greater-than-expected level of unscheduled outages at power plants, and low wind conditions that would cut electric generation from windfarms. If all of those conditions did not occur, they certainly came close. For more on that, see March 31, 2020, article - Texas Faces Energy Emergencies This Summer, but COVID-19 and Oil Industry Demand are Critical Unknowns, May 17, 2021, article - ERCOT Projects Lights Will Stay on in Texas This Summer and June 16, 2021, article - A Long, Hot Summer Spells Power Trouble in California and Texas.
About a month before Winter Storm Uri wreaked havoc on the Texas energy system in February 2021, ERCOT said lights should stay on during that winter -- unless "extreme" conditions occurred, which they did. For more on that, see January 3, 2022, article - Will the Lights Go Out in Texas this Winter? Under Extreme Conditions, Probably.
After ERCOT called for conservation on May 13, the Austin American Statesman quoted Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University's James Baker Institute: "We're still in the first half of May--and the dead of summer hasn't even hit us yet--and here we are talking about warnings and calls for conservation. ERCOT is doing it in a very haphazard way."
"Once again, I think we are seeing a lot of wishful thinking by ERCOT, (where they are) hoping for the best and not really preparing for the worst," Jones continued. He was a contributor to the study following Winter Storm Uri, in which significantly lower than expected temperatures froze the Texas energy infrastructure, leading to about 200 deaths and tens of billions of dollars in damage.
Daniel Cohan, an associate professor of civil and environmental engineering at Rice University, told the Texas Tribune, "I'm concerned with how hard those (power) plants have been run and that maintenance has been deferred to run the grid conservatively. It remains to be seen how much more vulnerable that leaves us to summer outages."
Texas is not the only state, or even region, facing potential power shortages this summer. A report from Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) (Carmel, Indiana), the grid operator for 15 Midwestern states, recently warned of potential power shortfalls this summer. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) (Atlanta, Georgia) recently warned that large shares of the U.S. face a heightened risk of electricity shortfalls this summer. And California is preparing to spend billions of dollars for emergency generation to ensure that a hot summer, or wildfires, or other natural disasters, do not turn out the lights in the Golden State.
Some continue to claim that historic heatwaves and record wildfires are one-off events, unconnected to global climate change. But a growing body of scientists and policymakers see increased weather extremes as one of several consequences of rising levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere.
"I'd say we whistled past the graveyard in the middle of this month," commented Britt Burt, Industrial Info's manager of research for the global Power Industry. "It gets really hot and humid in Texas during the summer, and the fact that we needed to call for voluntary energy conservation in the middle of May makes me wonder about this summer."
"Adding to the already complicated situation many of the thermal plants ERCOT depends on for baseload power are 30 years old or more," Burt continued. "If several of these plants were to trip offline during one of our periods of elevated temperatures, it could have devastating consequences for ERCOT and the people of the great state of Texas."
In short, "We are a ticking timebomb because we aren't building a great deal of reliable plants," Burt said.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the world's leading provider of market intelligence across the upstream, midstream and downstream energy markets and all other major industrial markets. IIR's Global Market Intelligence Platform (GMI) supports our end-users across their core businesses, and helps them connect trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated project opportunities. Follow IIR on: LinkedIn.
