Texas Exports on the Decline Under Tariff Pressures

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Written by Daniel Graeber for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--After pointing to improvements in the upstream energy sector, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found that Texas was now facing some headwinds as tariffs disrupt its trade arteries.

Texas was the largest exporter of goods among U.S. states last year, posting exports worth an estimated $455 billion. That marked an increase of 59% from 2014 levels.

The Dallas Fed reported Tuesday that the three-month moving average to June on exports from Texas declined by 0.6%, while the rest of the country was flat. Exports to Mexico, the state's largest trading partner, declined by 1.9%.

"Higher tariffs are partly driving the recent declines in export activity," the Dallas Fed explained.

U.S. President Donald Trump tacitly dismantled a free-trade deal he helped broker during his first term in office by targeting North American trading partners with steep tariffs. A blanket 25% tariff is in place for Mexico, the highest since World War I.

Houston, meanwhile, led cities, with export revenue of around $175 billion. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative estimated that petroleum and coal products were the largest export commodities for the state by value, accounting for $73 billion last year.

Data from IIR Energy show Mexico taking in around 7.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas from U.S. suppliers so far this week, down slightly from the August 2024 average of 7.4 Bcf/d. Nearly 90% of that gas supply comes from Texas, which is host to the Permian shale formation, the second-largest gas producer in the nation.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical arm of the Energy Department, estimates the Permian will average 27.5 Bcf/d this year, up from 25.5 Bcf/d from last year.

As the Permian gets gassier Energy Transfer LP (Dallas, Texas) in early August made a final investment decision (FID) on an extension to the Desert Southwest pipeline, adding another 516 miles of pipeline and nine compressor stations across Arizona, New Mexico and Texas. The design capacity is 1.5 Bcf/d. Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Project Database can learn more by viewing the related project reports.

On the other side of the border, Petróleos Mexicanos, or Pemex (Mexico City, Mexico), reported that its natural gas output averaged 3.53 million cubic feet per day during the second quarter, a 5.4% decline from the same period last year. Much of the gas volumes from Pemex are a byproduct of oil production.

The World Bank in April found the poverty rate in Mexico was on the decline, driven in part by an increase in the minimum wage. The overall economy, meanwhile, is stagnating, with growth only reaching 1.7% annually by 2027, a level still below the average growth rate over the prior three years.

The World Bank added that some of the decline is a result of an expected slowdown in the U.S. economy that are a result of Trump's trade policies. Unemployment in Texas, however, remains below the national average of 4.2% for July.

Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).