U.S., Allies Seek to Lessen China's Hold on Critical Minerals

Written by Paul Wiseman for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

U.S. Undersecretary for Economic Affairs Jacob Helberg, looking to coordinate efforts to reduce China's strong positions in all parts of the AI supply chain, has scheduled a White House meeting with eight U.S. allies.

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A Meeting of Minds

Looking to improve and secure supply chains for computer chips and AI-related critical minerals, the White House plans to host eight allies for a meeting on Friday. That announcement came from Jacob Helberg, the U.S. State Department's undersecretary for economic affairs, in a Bloomberg interview.

The list includes Australia, South Korea, Israel, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, the U.K. and the United Arab Emirates, Helberg was quoted as saying. These nations were invited because of their key roles in the manufacture of semiconductors as well as their critical mineral reserves.

Let's Get Together

Helberg has characterized AI as a "two-horse race--it is the U.S. and China." While he said the U.S wants to continue a positive relationship with China, the meeting will look to expand U.S. sources in order to build new technologies "without being subject to coercive dependencies."

He added that the meeting's goal will be for the nations to achieve greater cooperation in cutting-edge manufacturing, AI infrastructure, vital critical minerals, energy management, logistics and semiconductors. Underlying all of this is the desire to spread the supply chain of all these elements beyond China's existing dominance.

Policy observers are calling his ideas the "Helberg Doctrine," which is intended to merge national security and economic security into a single entity, putting minerals and energy required for the AI revolution at the top of the list.

How to Get Invited to the Party

Relative strengths of the nations selected can be categorized as follows:

• Resources: Australia--lithium, rare earths; the UAE via African investments
• Technology: The Netherlands--lithography; Israel--chemical processing/software; Japan--metallurgy; the U.K.--finance/insurance
• Manufacturing: South Korea--batteries/chips; Japan--magnets
• Logistics: Singapore--transshipment/equipment trade

The U.S. has previously signed a critical minerals trade agreement with Australia, noted Joe Govreau, Industrial Info's vice president of research for the Metals & Minerals Industry. Reached in October after five months of negotiations, the goal of the trade agreement is to speed the buildout of resilient supply chains and reduce reliance on unfriendly countries.

The U.S. and Australia agreed to offer price support to speed the development of mining, processing and recycling projects involving critical minerals. Each nation will also invest at least $1 billion in projects in the next six months that would produce end products for buyers in both nations.

In November, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) released an updated critical minerals list that added 10 new minerals, including boron, copper, lead, metallurgical coal, phosphate, potash, rhenium, silicon, silver and uranium. This puts the list at 60.

Click on the image at right for the USGS critical mineral list.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which was signed into law this summer, allocates $5 billion to the U.S. Department of War (formerly Defense) for supply-chain investments, including buying equity stakes in suppliers.

The OBBBA's National Defense Stockpile provision appropriates $2 billion to purchase critical minerals involved in Chinese export bans.

Industrial Info Resources Energy Market Strategist Geoffrey S. Lakings said, "What we are witnessing with the 'Grand Alignment' is the end of the passive regulator and the birth of the American portfolio state. Washington has realized that a nation can't become an AI superpower on a supply chain it doesn't own, and the 'Helberg Doctrine' is the first explicit admission that market efficiency is no longer a proxy for national security."

"However, the five billion dollars from the 'One Big Beautiful Bill' (specifically the Industrial Base Fund) can buy equity, but it cannot buy time," Lakings continued. "We are entering a terrifying 'zone of vulnerability' throughout 2026 where our geopolitical intent has outpaced our industrial reality; we are racing to build a parallel architecture for copper and silicon before the current trade truce evaporates and the real resource squeeze begins."

The "trade truce" refers to the November 1, 2025 agreement between the U.S. and China to relax some of their retaliatory tariffs for a period of one year, in an effort to improve trade between the two superpowers.

The U.S. reduced its fentanyl-related tariffs from 20% to 10%. China then agreed to eliminate global export controls on rare earth elements and other critical minerals, while also boosting U.S. agricultural imports of soybeans, sorghum, lumber and more.

By the Numbers

• Eight nations: Australia, South Korea, Israel, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, the U.K. and the United Arab Emirates
• Two-horse race: U.S. and China lead the world in AI, says Helberg

Key Takeaways

• The nine nations, including the U.S., face challenges, including the short one-year truce between the U.S. and China.
• Building a new supply chain in that amount of time will be nearly impossible.
• Balancing the interests of all nations, so that each is satisfied with its own benefits, could be tricky.

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About Industrial Info Resources
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