Released April 11, 2025 | SUGAR LAND
en
Written by Daniel Graeber for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Market trends remained on the downturn Thursday as trade tensions escalated between the U.S. and China, while demand indicators at home turned south.
Stock indexes were still in retreat in Thursday trading, even after U.S. President Donald Trump outlined a 90-day reprieve on so-called reciprocal tariffs amid warning signs for the global economy.
Before the pause, Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), warned that Trump's tariffs "clearly represent a significant risk to the global outlook at a time of sluggish growth."
On Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, reported that the total amount of refined petroleum products sent to the market over the four-week period ending April 4 averaged 19.6 million barrels per day (BBL/d). A proxy for demand, that level is down nearly 2% from the same period last year.
For just road fuels, the 8.6 million BBL/d delivered over the last four weeks was down 2.8% from the same period last year, even as retail gasoline prices declined.
Commodity markets by Thursday were roiled, meanwhile, after Trump opted to increase tariffs on China from a combined 104% to 125%, and then to 145% in what's looking like a game of chicken between the world's largest economies.
Broader markets showed signs of life in pre-market trading, but the sentiment turned south by the opening bell, with the Dow down 2% at the start of trading. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark for the price of oil, was down 4.2% to trade in the range of $59 per barrel, well below the point at which shale drillers said they could make a profit.
The energy sector has been on edge since December, when Trump started laying out his tariff agenda by targeting North American trading partners. Canada and Mexico are the top two crude oil exporters to the U.S., with Canada accounting for 60% of the total.
Trump's tariff agenda irked Canada in particular, with leaders looking for new trade corridors outside the U.S.
EIA data shows total crude oil imports averaged 6.1 million BBL/d over the four-week period, down nearly 7% from the same period last year. But Canadian imports are up 4.5% year-on-year, while flows from Mexico were up 17.8% from the same period in 2024.
Much of the U.S. refining sector is tailored to run the heavier types of crude oil found in Canada and Mexico, not the light, sweet oil found in U.S. shale basins.
On a more positive note, the Consumer Price Index, a measure of inflation, advanced 2.4% in March after an increase of 2.8% in February, showing the threat of tariffs had yet to spill over to the consumer level last month.
James Knightley, the chief international economist for investment firm ING, said in a Thursday newsletter that existing tariffs, notably the 25% import tax on foreign vehicles, likely will offset any optimism from the latest gauge of inflation.
"Moreover, tariffs and supply chain issues caused by tariffs--China's 125% tariff means U.S. importers are desperately going to be looking at alternatives from other parts of the world, which will give those foreign companies greater pricing power--and will lead to higher prices from here," he said.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).
Stock indexes were still in retreat in Thursday trading, even after U.S. President Donald Trump outlined a 90-day reprieve on so-called reciprocal tariffs amid warning signs for the global economy.
Before the pause, Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), warned that Trump's tariffs "clearly represent a significant risk to the global outlook at a time of sluggish growth."
On Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, reported that the total amount of refined petroleum products sent to the market over the four-week period ending April 4 averaged 19.6 million barrels per day (BBL/d). A proxy for demand, that level is down nearly 2% from the same period last year.
For just road fuels, the 8.6 million BBL/d delivered over the last four weeks was down 2.8% from the same period last year, even as retail gasoline prices declined.
Commodity markets by Thursday were roiled, meanwhile, after Trump opted to increase tariffs on China from a combined 104% to 125%, and then to 145% in what's looking like a game of chicken between the world's largest economies.
Broader markets showed signs of life in pre-market trading, but the sentiment turned south by the opening bell, with the Dow down 2% at the start of trading. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark for the price of oil, was down 4.2% to trade in the range of $59 per barrel, well below the point at which shale drillers said they could make a profit.
The energy sector has been on edge since December, when Trump started laying out his tariff agenda by targeting North American trading partners. Canada and Mexico are the top two crude oil exporters to the U.S., with Canada accounting for 60% of the total.
Trump's tariff agenda irked Canada in particular, with leaders looking for new trade corridors outside the U.S.
EIA data shows total crude oil imports averaged 6.1 million BBL/d over the four-week period, down nearly 7% from the same period last year. But Canadian imports are up 4.5% year-on-year, while flows from Mexico were up 17.8% from the same period in 2024.
Much of the U.S. refining sector is tailored to run the heavier types of crude oil found in Canada and Mexico, not the light, sweet oil found in U.S. shale basins.
On a more positive note, the Consumer Price Index, a measure of inflation, advanced 2.4% in March after an increase of 2.8% in February, showing the threat of tariffs had yet to spill over to the consumer level last month.
James Knightley, the chief international economist for investment firm ING, said in a Thursday newsletter that existing tariffs, notably the 25% import tax on foreign vehicles, likely will offset any optimism from the latest gauge of inflation.
"Moreover, tariffs and supply chain issues caused by tariffs--China's 125% tariff means U.S. importers are desperately going to be looking at alternatives from other parts of the world, which will give those foreign companies greater pricing power--and will lead to higher prices from here," he said.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).
