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Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--The Texas electric grid remains vulnerable to another catastrophic winter breakdown, similar to the one that turned out the lights, heat and water for millions of Texans last February, killing more than 200 people and causing economic damage estimated at between $80 billion to $130 billion.
The state's vulnerability to a repeat of last February's electricity debacle comes from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) (Austin, Texas), the state's grid operator. The agency's Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) report, released quietly the Friday before Thanksgiving, said under "extreme" conditions, rolling outages were likely in four of the five scenarios it developed.
ERCOT's SARA report for the 2021-2022 winter season included a combination of what the agency termed "high- and/or extreme-risk assumptions resulting in low-probability, high-impact outcomes." In other words, a so-called Black Swan event. In the "extreme" case, the only combination of factors that likely would not mean rolling outages would be characterized by "high peak load, high generation outages and an expected level of renewable generation output."
But in four other "extreme" situations examined by the agency, rolling blackouts were a possibility. The four other combination of factors that could require rolling blackouts included:
Experts were puzzled over the exclusion of data from Winter Storm Uri from this year's SARA report and that ERCOT did not publicly disclose what could happen if conditions this winter were worse than last winter.
The New York Times quoted Doug Lewin, an energy consultant, as saying, "You should at least plan for a winter as bad as the last one. And why do we assume that we could never have a winter worse than 2021?"
The Austin grid operator said it expected no problems keeping the lights on under a variety of "normal" scenarios.
In a report also issued in November, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) (Washington, D.C.), the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) and NERC's regional entities warned that the weatherization fixes announced by Texas Governor Abbott and the head of the Public Utilities Commission of Texas (PUCT) (Austin, Texas), do not, in fact, address experts' longstanding concerns over weatherization of the Texas energy ecosystem against extreme cold.
The FERC-NERC report highlighted "the critical need for stronger mandatory electric reliability standards, particularly with respect to generator cold weather-critical components and systems." The report echoed a decade-old warning that the energy ecosystem in Texas--including natural gas infrastructure, as well as the electric system--was ill-prepared for extreme cold.
"The final report on Winter Storm Uri is a sobering analysis that highlights the significant work that needs to be done," FERC Chairman Rich Glick said November 16 in releasing the 300-page final report. "I previously committed to take the recommendations seriously, and I plan to do exactly that. The devastating effects of extreme cold on our bulk power system's ability to operate in 2011 and now, 2021, must not be allowed to happen again. We have a duty to protect the bulk power system and public safety, and we will do just that."
"Extreme weather events, such as the one in February 2021, are unfortunately becoming more commonplace and the electricity ecosystem needs to come together to plan for and prepare to operate under more extreme, longer duration, and wide-area weather events," added NERC President and Chief Executive Officer Jim Robb. "The FERC-NERC-Regional Entity Staff Report also highlights the need for substantially better coordination between the natural gas system and the electric system to ensure a reliable supply that nearly 400 million people across North America depend upon to support their way of life."
Following last February's grid collapse, there was a flurry of activity from the governor, regulatory bodies and legislature that, industry observers told the Times and The Texas Tribune, doesn't actually amount to much. Mandates with teeth gave way to recommendations, which in any case were not required to be in place before the winter of 2022-23. Waivers from the new rules were given out by regulators until public pressure caused them to stop.
What could be worse than a possible repeat of February's grid breakdown? How about electricity becoming a political football? Republican Governor Greg Abbott, who is running for re-election next November, recently promised the lights will stay on this winter while his opponents--Democrats and Republicans--have attacked him for his sunny predictions preceding last February's electricity crisis and his weak response following the crisis.
"I can guarantee the lights will stay on," Abbot told Texans in November. That was the same promise he made last February, just days before the electric system collapsed: "Here's the deal," Abbott said on February 13, 2021, two days before millions lost electricity, heat and water. "We do, as a state, have the ability to ensure that we do not run out of power."
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn.
The state's vulnerability to a repeat of last February's electricity debacle comes from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) (Austin, Texas), the state's grid operator. The agency's Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) report, released quietly the Friday before Thanksgiving, said under "extreme" conditions, rolling outages were likely in four of the five scenarios it developed.
ERCOT's SARA report for the 2021-2022 winter season included a combination of what the agency termed "high- and/or extreme-risk assumptions resulting in low-probability, high-impact outcomes." In other words, a so-called Black Swan event. In the "extreme" case, the only combination of factors that likely would not mean rolling outages would be characterized by "high peak load, high generation outages and an expected level of renewable generation output."
But in four other "extreme" situations examined by the agency, rolling blackouts were a possibility. The four other combination of factors that could require rolling blackouts included:
- High peak load, typical generation outages and low renewable output
- High peak load, high generation outages and low renewable output
- High peak load, extreme generation outages and low renewable output, and
- High peak load, extreme generation outages and extremely low renewable output.
Experts were puzzled over the exclusion of data from Winter Storm Uri from this year's SARA report and that ERCOT did not publicly disclose what could happen if conditions this winter were worse than last winter.
The New York Times quoted Doug Lewin, an energy consultant, as saying, "You should at least plan for a winter as bad as the last one. And why do we assume that we could never have a winter worse than 2021?"
The Austin grid operator said it expected no problems keeping the lights on under a variety of "normal" scenarios.
In a report also issued in November, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) (Washington, D.C.), the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) and NERC's regional entities warned that the weatherization fixes announced by Texas Governor Abbott and the head of the Public Utilities Commission of Texas (PUCT) (Austin, Texas), do not, in fact, address experts' longstanding concerns over weatherization of the Texas energy ecosystem against extreme cold.
The FERC-NERC report highlighted "the critical need for stronger mandatory electric reliability standards, particularly with respect to generator cold weather-critical components and systems." The report echoed a decade-old warning that the energy ecosystem in Texas--including natural gas infrastructure, as well as the electric system--was ill-prepared for extreme cold.
"The final report on Winter Storm Uri is a sobering analysis that highlights the significant work that needs to be done," FERC Chairman Rich Glick said November 16 in releasing the 300-page final report. "I previously committed to take the recommendations seriously, and I plan to do exactly that. The devastating effects of extreme cold on our bulk power system's ability to operate in 2011 and now, 2021, must not be allowed to happen again. We have a duty to protect the bulk power system and public safety, and we will do just that."
"Extreme weather events, such as the one in February 2021, are unfortunately becoming more commonplace and the electricity ecosystem needs to come together to plan for and prepare to operate under more extreme, longer duration, and wide-area weather events," added NERC President and Chief Executive Officer Jim Robb. "The FERC-NERC-Regional Entity Staff Report also highlights the need for substantially better coordination between the natural gas system and the electric system to ensure a reliable supply that nearly 400 million people across North America depend upon to support their way of life."
Following last February's grid collapse, there was a flurry of activity from the governor, regulatory bodies and legislature that, industry observers told the Times and The Texas Tribune, doesn't actually amount to much. Mandates with teeth gave way to recommendations, which in any case were not required to be in place before the winter of 2022-23. Waivers from the new rules were given out by regulators until public pressure caused them to stop.
What could be worse than a possible repeat of February's grid breakdown? How about electricity becoming a political football? Republican Governor Greg Abbott, who is running for re-election next November, recently promised the lights will stay on this winter while his opponents--Democrats and Republicans--have attacked him for his sunny predictions preceding last February's electricity crisis and his weak response following the crisis.
"I can guarantee the lights will stay on," Abbot told Texans in November. That was the same promise he made last February, just days before the electric system collapsed: "Here's the deal," Abbott said on February 13, 2021, two days before millions lost electricity, heat and water. "We do, as a state, have the ability to ensure that we do not run out of power."
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn.
