Can Clean and Green Hydropower Maintain its Share of U.S. Electricity Mix?, a "Navigating the Currents of Change" Webcast on Industrialinfo.com

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Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Hydropower, the cleanest and greenest source of electricity, accounts for about 7% of the U.S. electricity mix today. Many hydro dams were built in the early or middle parts of the 20th century, and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) (Washington, D.C.) must relicense them.

The hydro relicensing process can take up to five years, which raises questions about the role that hydropower can play in meeting future U.S. electricity demand, Brock Ramey, Industrial Info's research manager for the North American Power Industry, said in an exclusive "Navigating the Currents of Change" interview.

Ramey estimated that 100 to 150 hydro generators are currently seeking relicensing at FERC. The sizes of these projects range from less than 1 megawatt (MW) to more than 200 MW, he added. "One trend we are seeing is that the smaller hydro projects are getting fast-tracked at FERC, but the larger projects are getting held up in environmental permitting, which can take about five years."

The U.S. currently has about 94,000 megawatts (MW) of hydroelectric generating capacity. Another 54,000 MW, with a total investment value (TIV) of slightly more than $82 billion, are currently under development. But the lengthy licensing and relicensing process will delay some projects and kill others, Ramey said.

"In some regions, there's an 85%/15% split between grassroot projects and expansions of existing facilities, but other regions have different splits between grassroot and expansion projects," Ramey said in the interview.

Ramey predicted that U.S. hydro project activity would be most active in regions that already have hydro generation, such as the U.S. Northwest, Rocky Mountains and Southeast.

The Northwest, heavily dependent on hydropower, is embroiled in a contentious "hydro vs. wind" dispute pitting the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) (Portland, Oregon) against owners and developers of wind power. The region has a heavier-than-average snowpack. As this melted, BPA released water from its dams this spring to make room for the billions of gallons of incoming water from melted snowpack. Releasing the water through its dams' spillways would injure and kill protected fish, so BPA is running the water through its hydro turbines, generating electricity. Click on image at right for a photo of one of BPA's hydro facilities, the Grand Coulee Dam in Washington, one of the world's largest concrete structures, measuring one mile long and 550 feet tall.

As the Northwest remains mired in an economic slump, there is little need for the additional electricity. So BPA, which generates about 30% of the electricity in the Northwest and operates 75% of the region's high-voltage transmission system, has curtailed wind generation, sparking howls of outrages from the windpower community. For more on that issue, see the May 24, 2011, article - Melting Snowpack Brings Increase in Hydroelectric Generation on Lower Snake and Columbia Rivers, and the May 18, 2011, article, Weather to Determine if Wind Power is Curtailed in Pacific Northwest.

The dispute in the Northwest may be extreme because of the region's high reliance on hydropower. However, hydro projects in other regions--both grassroot and expansion projects--likely will have to contend with a complex welter of federal, state and local laws and regulations as they seek environmental permits to continue operations or break ground on new facilities.

But it is essential that hydropower maintain its small but important share of the U.S. electricity mix. Environmental regulations are expected to close dozens, if not hundreds, of older coal-fired power plants in the coming years. New-build coal-fired plants are at a standstill. The much-anticipated "nuclear renaissance" has stalled, a victim of costs, uncertainties and the Fukushima nuclear accident.

Companies that sell equipment and services to the hydro industry are expected to be active in smaller hydro unit expansions and modernizations, Ramey predicted: "We're seeing a lot of opportunities in the maintenance and modernization work going on relating to relicensing."

Ramey invited readers to consult with him and other members of the IIR team on hydropower and the overall electricity market at the upcoming HydroVision International trade show and conference, July 19-22, in Sacramento, California. IIR will be exhibiting at Booth 228. The event, expected to draw several thousand hydro professionals, will be held in the Sacramento Convention Center.

"Attendees are able to schedule appointments with us at HydroVision, if they prefer," Ramey said. "IIR's databases and analytics services enable equipment manufacturers and service providers to more rapidly identify decision-makers and focus their sales efforts. In time of uncertainty, our timely market intelligence can help you close more sales."

Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. IIR's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle™, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities.