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Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Meeting California's renewable energy mandates will require spending about $30.5 billion on transmission projects over the next 20 years, according to California Independent System Operator (CAISO) (Folsom, California). This spending on transmission projects includes:
Given the lead times needed for these transmission facilities, primarily due to right-of-way acquisition and environmental permitting requirements, CAISO said a longer-term blueprint "is essential to chart the transmission planning horizon beyond the conventional 10-year timeframe that has been used in the past."
The report focused only on transmission issues, as that is the limit of CAISO's responsibilities. But it noted satisfying the requirements of S.B. 100 also will require retiring about 15,000 megawatts (MW) of gas-fired generation in California, mainly in Southern and Central California, and also investing heavily in renewable generation, including offshore wind generation, and battery energy storage systems (BESS).
"The transmission needs will range from high-voltage lines that traverse significant distances to access out-of-state resources, as well as major generation pockets, including offshore wind and geothermal resources located inside the state," the draft report noted.
CAISO collaborated with the California Energy Commission (CEC) (Sacramento, California), the state's long-term energy planning agency, and the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) (San Francisco, California), which regulates the state's shareholder-owned utilities and issues permits for transmission projects. All of those agencies will need to work together to meet the decarbonization goals of S.B. 100. CAISO is collecting stakeholder feedback on the draft report and expects to issue a final report in March.
The 20-Year Transmission Outlook said meeting the zero-emission mandates contained in state law would require as much as 37,000 MW of battery energy storage, 4,000 MW of long-duration storage, more than 53,000 MW of utility scale solar, more than 2,000 MW of geothermal, and more than 24,000 MW of wind generation--the latter split between out-of-state and in-state resources. The bulk of the in-state generation resources consists of offshore wind. These are overall resource requirements and are not only for new-build projects.
The report noted that decarbonizing the state's electricity use "will call for greater volumes of solar photovoltaic resources and battery storage, as well as greater diversity beyond the current focus on those resource types. Geothermal resources, out-of-state resources and offshore resources all are expected to play greater roles, and create unique challenges in the planning and interconnection processes."
California has set ambitious goals for decarbonizing its transportation, which will increase the demand for clean electricity. This comes at a time when surrounding states also are working to lower or eliminate greenhouse gas emissions from their electricity sector.
Developers have been aggressively pursuing the state's electric resource needs, leading to a clogged queue of transmission projects, the report noted: "Responding to these signals and previously approved authorizations, the resource development industry came forward with a record-setting number of new interconnections requests in April, 2021, with 373 new interconnection requests being received ... layered on top of an already heavily populated interconnection queue. The 605 projects totaling 236,225 MW now in the queue exceeds mid-term requirements by an order of magnitude."
"This level of hyper competition actually creates barriers to moving forward effectively with the resources that do need to be added to the grid, and commandeers precious planning, engineering and project management resources from the ISO and transmission owners."
Although the report did not select specific transmission projects to meet the state's future needs, it did identify four large projects that could bring as much as 6,000 MW of out-of-state wind power to California: These projects are:
"No one ever said decarbonizing the Power sector would be cheap, easy or quick, and this report is a first step to quantifying a part of the cost of the clean energy future in California," commented Britt Burt, Industrial Info's vice president of research for the Global Power Industry. "There's a lot more spending to come to construct the non-emitting resources needed to comply with S.B. 100. Stay tuned."
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn.
- $11.6 billion to bring out-of-state wind power into California
- $10.7 billion to upgrade CAISO's existing transmission footprint inside the state
- $8.1 billion to bring offshore wind generation into California
Given the lead times needed for these transmission facilities, primarily due to right-of-way acquisition and environmental permitting requirements, CAISO said a longer-term blueprint "is essential to chart the transmission planning horizon beyond the conventional 10-year timeframe that has been used in the past."
The report focused only on transmission issues, as that is the limit of CAISO's responsibilities. But it noted satisfying the requirements of S.B. 100 also will require retiring about 15,000 megawatts (MW) of gas-fired generation in California, mainly in Southern and Central California, and also investing heavily in renewable generation, including offshore wind generation, and battery energy storage systems (BESS).
"The transmission needs will range from high-voltage lines that traverse significant distances to access out-of-state resources, as well as major generation pockets, including offshore wind and geothermal resources located inside the state," the draft report noted.
CAISO collaborated with the California Energy Commission (CEC) (Sacramento, California), the state's long-term energy planning agency, and the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) (San Francisco, California), which regulates the state's shareholder-owned utilities and issues permits for transmission projects. All of those agencies will need to work together to meet the decarbonization goals of S.B. 100. CAISO is collecting stakeholder feedback on the draft report and expects to issue a final report in March.
The 20-Year Transmission Outlook said meeting the zero-emission mandates contained in state law would require as much as 37,000 MW of battery energy storage, 4,000 MW of long-duration storage, more than 53,000 MW of utility scale solar, more than 2,000 MW of geothermal, and more than 24,000 MW of wind generation--the latter split between out-of-state and in-state resources. The bulk of the in-state generation resources consists of offshore wind. These are overall resource requirements and are not only for new-build projects.
The report noted that decarbonizing the state's electricity use "will call for greater volumes of solar photovoltaic resources and battery storage, as well as greater diversity beyond the current focus on those resource types. Geothermal resources, out-of-state resources and offshore resources all are expected to play greater roles, and create unique challenges in the planning and interconnection processes."
California has set ambitious goals for decarbonizing its transportation, which will increase the demand for clean electricity. This comes at a time when surrounding states also are working to lower or eliminate greenhouse gas emissions from their electricity sector.
Developers have been aggressively pursuing the state's electric resource needs, leading to a clogged queue of transmission projects, the report noted: "Responding to these signals and previously approved authorizations, the resource development industry came forward with a record-setting number of new interconnections requests in April, 2021, with 373 new interconnection requests being received ... layered on top of an already heavily populated interconnection queue. The 605 projects totaling 236,225 MW now in the queue exceeds mid-term requirements by an order of magnitude."
"This level of hyper competition actually creates barriers to moving forward effectively with the resources that do need to be added to the grid, and commandeers precious planning, engineering and project management resources from the ISO and transmission owners."
Although the report did not select specific transmission projects to meet the state's future needs, it did identify four large projects that could bring as much as 6,000 MW of out-of-state wind power to California: These projects are:
- SunZia, a planned 520-mile, 500-kilovolt (kV) line to bring wind energy from New Mexico to Arizona, where it will interconnect at Palo Verde, Arizona, and extend along existing transmission lines to California. This project will cost an estimated $1.1 billion. Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Power Project Database can click here for the detailed report.
- Trans West Express, a $1 billion project to bring wind power from Wyoming to the Desert Southwest. Subscribers can click here to review the project report.
- South West Intertie Project (SWIP) -- North, a 500-kilovolt, 1,000-MW line from Idaho to Nevada. Subscribers can click here for the report.
- Cross-Tie, which could bring as much as 1,000 MW of wind energy from Wyoming to Southern California.
"No one ever said decarbonizing the Power sector would be cheap, easy or quick, and this report is a first step to quantifying a part of the cost of the clean energy future in California," commented Britt Burt, Industrial Info's vice president of research for the Global Power Industry. "There's a lot more spending to come to construct the non-emitting resources needed to comply with S.B. 100. Stay tuned."
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn.
