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Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--The California Independent System Operator (CAISO) (Folsom, California), the state's grid operator, on April 3 issued a draft 10-year transmission plan that recommended building 46 transmission projects, mostly inside the state, at an estimated cost of $9.3 billion. The projects will improve the state's reliability and help achieve the state's public policy goals of decarbonizing the state's electricity supply by 2045.
CAISO is seeking stakeholder input on its plan and is expected to send its final recommendations to the agency's board of governors in May.
Click on the image at right to see a depiction of the transmission planning cycle in California.
This plan is an evolution of a 2022 estimate from CAISO that the state would need to invest about $30.5 billion over 20 years to meet the state's clean energy laws. For more on that, see February 15, 2022, article - About $30 Billion in Transmission Project Spending Needed to Meet California's Clean Energy Mandate.
Industrial Info is tracking about 71 transmission projects under development in California with a total investment value (TIV) of about $3.75 billion.
In its April 3 study, CAISO said, "The need for additional generation of electricity over the next 10 years has escalated rapidly in California as it continues transitioning to the carbon-free electrical grid required by the state's clean-energy policies. This in turn has been driving a dramatically accelerated pace for new transmission development in current and future planning cycles. To help ensure we have the transmission in place to achieve this transition reliably and cost-effectively, the ISO's 2022-2023 Transmission Plan reflects a much more strategic and proactive approach to better synchronize power and transmission planning, interconnection queuing and resource procurement and is put forward in close coordination with the state's primary energy planning and regulatory entities, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) (San Francisco) and the California Energy Commission (CEC) (Sacramento)."
The state's electricity needs have escalated sharply over the past year. The report continued: "This year's transmission plan is based on state projections provided to the ISO in 2022 that California needs to add more than 40 gigawatts (GW) of new (electric) resources over the next 10 years, and a sensitivity study projection calling for 70 GW by 2032 reflecting the potential for increased electrification occurring in other sectors of the economy, most notably in transportation and the building industry. The CPUC has recently established that next year's transmission plan is to be based on this projection of 70 GW by 2033."
In addition to growth and electrification of the state's economy, two other factors complicate electricity planning in the Golden State: the on-again, off-again status of the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Station and the scheduled retirement of about 3,700 megawatts (MW) of gas-fired generation, to comply with the state's restrictions on thermal generation that relies on coastal water for once-through cooling. For more on the license renewal process for the two-unit, 2,255-MW Diablo Canyon nuclear plant, which supplies about 9% of the state's carbon-free electricity, see January 30, 2023, article - NRC Casts Doubt on Diablo Canyon Operating Past Middle of This Decade.
However, last month, the NRC overrode staff recommendations and granted an exemption to Pacific Gas & Electric Company (San Francisco) that would allow the nuclear plant to continue operating while the agency considers its license renewal application.
In the CAISO draft transmission plan, the agency straddled the nuclear and gas issues when it said it was "not relying on the continued operation of the gas-fired generation or Diablo Canyon to meet any local capacity or grid support purposes beyond the planned retirement dates. However, (CAISO) must continue to ensure that they are reliably interconnected and can continue to operate through any potential extension period, so the resources are modeled in the ISO's studies for those purposes only."
The draft transmission plan took notice of the plans to rapidly continue building non-emitting generation, including:
Click on the image at right to see a map of the state's transmission planning zones and capacity.
The report said the transmission projects represent "significant investments that are phased in over lead times of up to eight to 10 years, which are reasonable for some of the projects to be completed. These costs translate to approximately 0.5 cents per kWh over the life of the projects, phased in as the new facilities come online."
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
CAISO is seeking stakeholder input on its plan and is expected to send its final recommendations to the agency's board of governors in May.
This plan is an evolution of a 2022 estimate from CAISO that the state would need to invest about $30.5 billion over 20 years to meet the state's clean energy laws. For more on that, see February 15, 2022, article - About $30 Billion in Transmission Project Spending Needed to Meet California's Clean Energy Mandate.
Industrial Info is tracking about 71 transmission projects under development in California with a total investment value (TIV) of about $3.75 billion.
In its April 3 study, CAISO said, "The need for additional generation of electricity over the next 10 years has escalated rapidly in California as it continues transitioning to the carbon-free electrical grid required by the state's clean-energy policies. This in turn has been driving a dramatically accelerated pace for new transmission development in current and future planning cycles. To help ensure we have the transmission in place to achieve this transition reliably and cost-effectively, the ISO's 2022-2023 Transmission Plan reflects a much more strategic and proactive approach to better synchronize power and transmission planning, interconnection queuing and resource procurement and is put forward in close coordination with the state's primary energy planning and regulatory entities, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) (San Francisco) and the California Energy Commission (CEC) (Sacramento)."
The state's electricity needs have escalated sharply over the past year. The report continued: "This year's transmission plan is based on state projections provided to the ISO in 2022 that California needs to add more than 40 gigawatts (GW) of new (electric) resources over the next 10 years, and a sensitivity study projection calling for 70 GW by 2032 reflecting the potential for increased electrification occurring in other sectors of the economy, most notably in transportation and the building industry. The CPUC has recently established that next year's transmission plan is to be based on this projection of 70 GW by 2033."
In addition to growth and electrification of the state's economy, two other factors complicate electricity planning in the Golden State: the on-again, off-again status of the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Station and the scheduled retirement of about 3,700 megawatts (MW) of gas-fired generation, to comply with the state's restrictions on thermal generation that relies on coastal water for once-through cooling. For more on the license renewal process for the two-unit, 2,255-MW Diablo Canyon nuclear plant, which supplies about 9% of the state's carbon-free electricity, see January 30, 2023, article - NRC Casts Doubt on Diablo Canyon Operating Past Middle of This Decade.
However, last month, the NRC overrode staff recommendations and granted an exemption to Pacific Gas & Electric Company (San Francisco) that would allow the nuclear plant to continue operating while the agency considers its license renewal application.
In the CAISO draft transmission plan, the agency straddled the nuclear and gas issues when it said it was "not relying on the continued operation of the gas-fired generation or Diablo Canyon to meet any local capacity or grid support purposes beyond the planned retirement dates. However, (CAISO) must continue to ensure that they are reliably interconnected and can continue to operate through any potential extension period, so the resources are modeled in the ISO's studies for those purposes only."
The draft transmission plan took notice of the plans to rapidly continue building non-emitting generation, including:
- More than 17 GW of solar generation distributed across the state in solar development regions that include the Westlands area in the Central Valley, Tehachapi, the Kramer area in San Bernardino County, Riverside County, and also in southern Nevada and western Arizona
- More than 3.5 GW of in-state wind generation in existing wind development regions, including Tehachapi
- More than 1 GW of geothermal development, primarily in the Imperial Valley and in southern Nevada
- Access for battery storage projects co-located across the state with renewable generation projects, as well as stand-alone storage located closer to major load centers in the LA Basin, greater Bay Area, and San Diego
- The import of more than 4.5 GW of out-of-state wind generation from Idaho, Wyoming and New Mexico, by enhancing corridors from the ISO border in southeastern Nevada and from western Arizona into California load centers, and
- Up to 3 GW of central coast offshore wind generation prior to the retirement of the Diablo Canyon Power Plant, and up to 5 GW after the retirement.
- A new 500-kilovolt (kV) transmission line running west from the Arizona border into southern Imperial County, new 500-kV transmission lines angling up from southern Imperial County to northern San Diego and extending into the southern LA Basin, and upgrades to the existing 500-kV and 230-kV lines along the Interstate 10 (I-10) corridor. Together, these upgrades provide access to east Riverside County, Imperial County and Arizona solar generation, Imperial Valley geothermal, and New Mexico wind generation
- A new 500-kV transmission line from southeastern Nevada to the eastern edge of the LA Basin and rebuilding of existing southeastern Nevada 230-kV transmission inside the ISO to 500 kV, providing access for Eldorado and Pisgah area solar generation, southeastern Nevada solar and geothermal generation, and Wyoming and Idaho wind generation
- Upgrades to the Lugo--Victor--Kramer 230-kV transmission system to access north of Lugo solar resources, and
- A host of smaller upgrades improving access to other smaller resource zones.
The report said the transmission projects represent "significant investments that are phased in over lead times of up to eight to 10 years, which are reasonable for some of the projects to be completed. These costs translate to approximately 0.5 cents per kWh over the life of the projects, phased in as the new facilities come online."
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
