Canada Natural Resources Ups Production Guidance

Written by Daniel Graeber for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Canadian Natural Resources Limited (NYSE:CNQ) (Calgary, Alberta) said its budget plans for 2025 would support a 12% increase in net production relative to year-ago levels.

Canadian Natural reported an average production of around 1.3 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/d) during the third quarter. With a capital spending target for 2025 of US$4.1 billion, the company said it was targeting a production level between 1.51 million and 1.55 million Boe/d for 2025, which it said would mark a 12% increase over full-year 2024 levels.

"Our high quality, diversified asset base combined with our flexible capital allocation strategy is a significant competitive advantage," President Scott Stauth said in a statement Thursday. "Our disciplined and focused approach allocates capital and optimizes the product mix based on the highest return projects, maximizing value for our shareholders."

The commitment marks something of a reversal for the company. Lower crude oil and natural gas prices last year curbed the spending appetite for new discoveries and new production. Canadian Natural, the nation's largest oil and gas producer, cut its upstream activity in natural gas due to chronically-low prices.

But it continued to spend. For $6.5 billion, it took over Chevron Corporation's (NYSE:CVX) (San Ramon, California) interest in the Duvernay shale patch in Alberta and the Athabasca Oil Sands Project (ASOP) last year. Those assets had produced 84,000 Boe/d, with the bulk of the output coming from ASOP.

Following the completion of an upgrader at ASOP in the fourth quarter, Canadian Natural said output had increased by close to 10% of the initial capacity.

Upstream, the company said it plans to drill 361 new wells across its asset base. About 180 of those would target shale basins in Alberta and British Columbia.

"Canadian Natural has a unique and diverse asset base which allows the company to adapt quickly to changing market conditions," it stated. "The company's 2025 budget targets a level-loaded drilling program throughout the year and will maintain flexibility to manage effective capital allocation."

Production is expected to represent a mix of oil and gas, though nearly three quarters of the output will be in either light or heavy crude oil. Only 27% of the production is expected to be in natural gas.

The spending announcement follows the resignation of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who stepped aside amid infighting over how to respond to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's threat to impose a 25% tariff on imported Canadian goods, including energy.

Canada is the top crude oil exporter to the United States, accounting for about 60% of total deliveries. The provincial government in oil-rich Alberta recently signed a letter of intent with Enbridge Incorporated (NYSE:ENB) (Calgary, Alberta) to form a working group alongside the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission to study its options.

The government added that it was committed to doubling Alberta's crude oil production and increasing pipeline capacity, all of which it said would support North American security.

Alberta produces around 4 million barrels of oil per day. The Alberta Energy Regulator expects production to increase another 12% by 2026.

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