Chile's Mining Authority Increases Copper Price Forecast

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Written by Amir Richani for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--The Chilean mining authority has adjusted its copper price forecast to US$4.30 per pound due to expectations of a supply deficit this year. This revision, an increase of US$0.05 from the February forecast, comes despite the geopolitical turmoil that impacted commodities in the first quarter.

Since the beginning of the year, the copper market has experienced increasing volatility, driven by the U.S. trade war, which threatened to impose tariffs on copper and stirred up uncertainty in the industry. However, recent agreements and de-escalations between China and the U.S. have helped stabilize the market, along with a consistent economic forecast from China for the year.

According to the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco), international mining companies such as Freeport-McMoRan Incorporated (Phoenix, Arizona), Glencore (Baar, Switzerland) and Anglo American plc (London, England) reported declines in production during the first quarter, while Codelco (Santiago, Chile) and Antofagasta Minerals (London, England) increased their output.

Cochilco has lowered projected growth for global copper mining production from 4.7% to 1.3%.

For 2025, the mining authority forecasts a global copper deficit of 109,000 metric tons, given the existing demand for the metal. However, for 2026, copper supply is expected to exceed demand by 19,000 metric tons, as mining production recovers worldwide.

Despite this oversupply, Cochilco does not anticipate a significant impact on prices.

Copper demand is forecasted to grow by 2.3% this year from 2024. Demand by China, the world's largest copper importer, is expected to increase 2%, driven by the need for electric vehicles, although this depends on the country's economic activity.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is likely to experience demand growth of 3.5%, thanks to local policies and advancements in cleaner technologies, despite recent negative rhetoric surrounding renewables.

For this year, Cochilco estimated that copper production in Chile, the world's largest copper producer, will reach 5.67 million metric tons, representing a 3% increase from last year. Production is also projected to grow by another 3% in 2026, primarily due to the completion and progress of previously launched structural projects in Chile.

Lastly, the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to have the largest production growth, with an increase of 233,000 metric tons this year and an additional 271,000 metric tons by next year.

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